巴菲特班講稿

mikeon88

感謝ChatGPT大神幫忙翻譯
Thanks to ChatGPT for the translation.


我的投資方法只有兩招：
按盈再表跟GDP加減碼

My investment strategy consists of only two tactics:
selecting stocks using Michael On’s table and adjusting positions at GDP peaks and troughs.

最新盈再表 (點我)
The latest version of Michael On's table (click)



選股原則3點：
1. 選高ROE、配得出現金，不會變的公司
2. 便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣
3. 買至少100支股票，不必照顧也不要停損

Three principles for stock selection::
1. We select companies with high return on equity, high dividends payout, and a stable business model.
2. We buy at a cheap price and hold until the stock becomes expensive.
3. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of more than 100 stocks eliminates the need for constant monitoring and loss cutting.

不要預測指數高低點，
依GDP按表操課加減碼就好。
1. 在GDP年增率最高點減碼，但最多賣1/3。
若持股比例60%，可降至40%。
2. 儘量等到GDP低點再買股票
3. 我們會在持股中加入15%指數型ETF，
以便在GDP高低點時快速調整部位

Do not predict the highs and lows of the index.
Instead, adjust your holdings based on the GDP.
1. Reduce your holdings at the peak of GDP growth rate, but sell at most one-third.
If your holding proportion is 60%, you can reduce it to 40%.
2. Wait to buy most stocks when GDP is at its lowest point.
3. We will allocate 15% of our portfolio to index ETFs, allowing for quick adjustments during GDP highs and lows.



我的方法可以幫助您的投資穩定趨向於15%年報酬率，
我的示範即是最好證明
只要50年平均20%就能和巴菲特一樣成為世界首富

My method promises a stable 15% annual return rate, and the demonstration provides the best evidence.
By achieving an average annual return of 20% over 50 years, you have the potential to attain a level of wealth comparable to that of Warren Buffett.

建立一個穩定趨向15%年報酬率的投資組合是成為有錢人最重要步驟，
因為對這個投資組合有信心：
1. 才敢押身家，本金滾起來才會大。
2. 才願意長期一直擺著，不跑來跑去，這樣就有複利效果。
本金大 x 複利長 ＝ 有錢人

Building a portfolio that steadily aims for a 15% annual return is the most important step to becoming wealthy,
because having confidence in this portfolio means:
You’re willing to bet your entire capital — the principal will grow substantially over time.
You’re willing to hold it long-term without constantly moving in and out, allowing the power of compounding to work.
Large principal × long-term compounding = becoming wealthy.

請每天來討論區
跟單

Participate in daily discussion forums and follow what we do.

台股若找不到100檔可好很久的公司，請來投資全世界。
把家族財產分散到世界級好公司最安全而且可大可久，比房地產有保障。

If you cannot find 100 long-term companies in Taiwan’s stocks, please come to invest globally.
Diversifying your property to world-class companies is the safest and growing, more secure than real estate.

把巴菲特神功傳承下去，
後代子孫將不愁吃穿，不用擔心工作和學業成績，
可以全力發展自己的興趣，無憂無慮過一輩子。

By carrying on Warren Buffett's remarkable investment skills, your future generations will be liberated from concerns about their job or academic performance. This will empower them to wholeheartedly pursue their interests and embrace a lifetime of peace and contentment.

學佛最大的障礙是拿不掉我執，
不能百分之百按著佛祖教導的正法修行。
誤以為自己修正的方法較快，摻雜的邪門歪道更好。
學習態度輕忽，初一十五才來廟裡燒香。
上述行為都讓您與佛無緣，無法成為有錢人。

請每天來巴班討論區，跟單。
心有罫礙多唸講稿！

The largest hindrance in studying Buddhism is dispelling entrenched misconceptions and ensuring strict adherence to the teachings of Buddha. Some individuals mistakenly believe that their modified approach is quicker or that blending different ideologies is more effective. They have a careless attitude towards learning and only visit the temple sporadically. These actions will prevent one from reaching enlightenment and will not lead to wealth.

Engage in daily forum discussions and follow our lead to gain insights and strategies. If you encounter obstacles, refer back to these lecture notes frequently for guidance.

上課錄音檔～感謝雜工桑提供
Lecture Recordings ~ ​​Thanks to Mr. Handyman for providing

上課Youtube~感謝江文宏桑提供
Lecture on Youtube ~ ​​Thanks to Mr. Wenhong Jiang for providing

講稿 1/21 歡迎  
Lecture 1/21 Welcome

講稿 2/21 知與不知  
Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable

講稿 3/21 巴六點  
Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria

講稿 4/21 物美價廉  
Lecture 4/21 Good quality and low price

講稿 5/21 還原股價
Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price

講稿 6/21 高ROE
Lecture 6/21 High ROE

講稿 7/21 配得出現金
Lecture 7/21 High dividends

講稿 8/21 會計
Lecture 8/21 Accounting

講稿 9/21 地雷股
Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks

講稿 10/21 他們通通是錯的
Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong

講稿 11/21 不會變的公司
Lectue 11/21 Durable

講稿 12/21 多種果樹
Lecture 12/21 Diversification

講稿 13/21 IRR
Lecture 13/21 IRR

講稿 14/21 殖利率陷阱
Lectre 14/21 Yield trap

講稿 15/21 GDP理論
Lecture 15/21 GDP Theory

講稿 16/21 全世界都成立
Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable

講稿 17/21 不要想太多
Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much

講稿 18/21 玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始
Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy

講稿 19/21 基金太貴，不做代操
Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds

講稿 20/21 股債不是蹺蹺板
Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw

講稿 21/21 技術分析
Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis

mikeon88

講稿 1/21 歡迎
Lecture 1/21 Welcome



歡迎來上巴菲特班，本班創立於2003年，  
為台灣歷史最悠久，學生人數最多的投資課。

Welcome to the Buffett Lecture Series! Founded by Michael On in 2003, it is the premier and highly acclaimed investment course in Taiwan, with a long-standing reputation.

2003年開班在想該取什麼名字才會吸引人來上課？
當時剛好看到eBay在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
拍得25萬美金，折合台幣800多萬，
我就把這堂課取名叫「一堂價值800萬元的投資課」，
以為是響叮噹的名字，不料效果不彰。

In 2003, while starting the Buffett Lecture Series, I was looking for a name that would appeal to the audience. I stumbled upon an eBay auction for a lunch with Warren Buffett that sold for $250,000, equivalent to over NT$8 million. This inspired me to name the series "An Investment Course Worth NT$8 Million." Although I believed the name was striking, its effectiveness was still to be seen.

eBay每年都在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
2012年跟2016年同樣創了新高，
金額都是3,456,789美金，折合台幣約1億多元，
所以現在是一堂價值 1 億多元的投資課，現在來上課賺更多！

Every year, eBay holds an auction for a "Lunch with Warren Buffett," which set new records in 2012 and 2016 with winning bids of $3,456,789, equivalent to roughly NT$100 million.
This has elevated the perceived value of the course to over NT$100 million, making it an opportune time to enroll and receive even greater returns on your investment.

令人遺憾的是本班的學費在2003年是5,000元，
好不容易2008年因為石油上漲跟著起鬨漲到6,000元，
本以為學費應該跟老巴的權利金一起上漲，卻是很困難。

Since its inception in 2003, the tuition for this course was established at NT$5,000. In 2008, the tuition was increased to NT$6,000 due to the rise in oil prices.
I had aspired for the course tuition to grow in line with the winning bid amount of the annual "Lunch with Warren Buffett" auction, but increasing the fee proved to be a difficult task.



上完課之後同學才跟我反映，本班的學費其實最便宜，
上別人的課動輒都是上萬元以上，甚至有一堂24萬元課。
我以為本班學費只是個合理價，中間的價格，
說便宜也沒便宜到哪裡去，因為投資是很簡單的一門課，
若動輒都要上萬塊以上的話，
那以前在學校所學更難的課物理化學或微積分不就要上百萬元嗎？
如果上過比我更貴的課，表示被敲了竹槓！

After the classes, students would approach me and tell me that my class fees were actually the cheapest among all the other investment courses. Other courses often cost more than ten thousand dollars, with some even costing twenty-four thousand dollars per class. I thought the fees for my class were just a reasonable price, in the middle range. When people say "cheap," it's not really that cheap. Because investment is a simple subject, if people have to pay more than ten thousand dollars, then wouldn't subjects like physics, chemistry, or calculus, which are more difficult, cost millions of dollars? If someone has taken a course that's more expensive than mine, they were ripped off!



同學問為何還要來上這堂課？
上課之前有人已先看過我的書，為何還要來上這堂課？
因為書上有些東西可能看得不是很懂，
投資時也有許多問題產生，
所以就得來上這堂課。

"Why do we still attend this class even though we've read the book beforehand?" asked some classmates. "Some things in the book may not be fully understood and there are also many questions that come up during the investment process, so that's why we need to attend this class."

學投資跟學開車一樣，
光看書等於看一本教練手冊，
單看教練手冊不能學會開車，
接下來就得到教練場聽教練講解。
這堂課就像教練場一樣，
會把所有關於投資的道理跟大家講清楚，
同學只要把上課內容搞清楚就足以應付股市各種狀況。
在上課過程中歡迎隨時舉手發問！

Investing is similar to learning how to drive.
Reading a book on investing is like reading a driving manual; just as reading a manual alone won't make you a proficient driver, reading a book on investing won't make you an expert.
This class acts as a driving lesson, with the instructor clearly explaining all the principles of investing.
With a thorough understanding of the class material, you will be prepared to navigate various situations in the stock market.
Feel free to ask questions at any time during the class!



上完課之後就要開車上路，路上的狀況更複雜，
我們希望仍然跟同學保持聯絡。
在投資上有任何問題歡迎隨時打電話給我，
或者到討論區來一起討論。
這堂課永久免費保固，歡迎再來回鍋，
只要事先寫伊媚兒報名即可。

After finishing class, we'll hit the road, which is becoming increasingly complex. Nevertheless, we hope to stay connected with our classmates. If you have any questions regarding investments, don't hesitate to give me a call, or join us in the discussion forum for a group discussion. This course comes with a permanent, free guarantee, and you're welcome to revisit as long as you send an email to register in advance.



回鍋是免費的，所謂免費指免學費。
舊生中午要吃便當的話每人2天400元，
不然三不五時來吃便當我就倒閉了。

The term "free" only applies to tuition fees and not to lunch. Former students who want to order lunch must pay for it, at a cost of approximately NT$200 per day. Otherwise, if they only come back for the free lunch, I may run into financial difficulties.

舊生要一本新的講義，70元，
超過一年以上來回鍋才需要新的講義。

The lecture materials are periodically updated, and a new copy can be purchased for NT$70. It is recommended to purchase updated materials if your current edition is at least one year old.

現在改為線上教學之後回鍋更方便了，
自己到討論區看講稿，隨時隨地複習。

With the course now being offered through online learning, reviewing and discussing the material has become more convenient. You can access the discussion forum to read the lecture text and review it anytime and anywhere.

以往每年9月或10月份本班還會召開同學會，
邀請投資有成的同學來分享心得。
同學會場面相當盛大，北中南合計超過1千500人。
台北場在內湖美麗華飯店，有摩天輪大樓的那家飯店，
參加同學須分擔場地費用每人300元。
台中在救國團，每人200元，
高雄是慧雯同學提供的場地，免費。

In the past, the class would organize yearly reunion parties during September or October, inviting accomplished alumni to share their experiences. These events were hosted in various regions of Taiwan, including the north, central, and south, and were attended by over 15,000 alumni annually. The Taipei party was held at the Miramar Hotel in Neihu District, which boasts a Ferris wheel, and attendees were asked to contribute a fee of NT$300 per person to cover the venue costs. The Taichung gathering took place in a classroom at the China Youth Corps, while the Kaohsiung reunion was held in a hall generously provided by Ms. Hueiwen.

巴菲特班同學會 Reunion parties：2007、2008、2009、09高、2010、10中、10高、2011、11中、11高、2012、12中、12高、2013、13中、13高、2014、14中、14高、2015、15中、15高、2016、16中、16高

同學會2017年之後不再舉辦，
大家到討論區見面，等於天天在開同學會。

The reunion party has not been held since 2017, but you can meet in the discussion forum, which is equivalent to having a reunion party every day.

我出過兩本書，第一本書是「巴菲特選股魔法書」2004年出版，
第二本書「巴菲特選股神功」2008年出版，這是一本漫畫書。
這兩本是不一樣的書，內容70%不同。
跟我買書最便宜，因為作者跟出版社買書可以打6折，
用成本價賣給各位。
以後買書請逕洽書局或出版社購買。

I have written two books, the first is "Warren Buffett’s Magic Book of Stock Selection" published in 2004, and the second book, "Warren Buffett's Skills of Stock Selection" was published in 2008. This is a comic book.
These two books are different, with 70% different content.
Buying a book from me is the cheapest, because the author can get a 40% discount from the publisher. I am providing the books to you at cost price.From now on, please purchase books directly from bookstores or publishers.



也就是上這堂課我這一輩子只會賺同學一次學費，
以後跟我買書、參加同學會、來回鍋，都賺不到一毛錢！

This means that I will only earn tuition from you once. I won't make any money from selling books, hosting reunion gatherings, or having you return to class.

只有這樣才可能教大家學會投資，
看了書之後來上課，平常一起討論，有需要來回鍋。
學投資是一段「練」的過程，
體會出股價的確是如我所講的道理在走，才會照著做，
通常需要經過2次的多空循環才能體會。
第一次碰到多頭天天在漲，以為賺錢真簡單，
第一次碰到空頭天天下跌，又覺得生不如死，
等第二次碰到才發現原來多頭就是這麼一回事，空頭是如此這般。

The only way to teach someone how to invest is by combining reading books, taking courses, participating in forums, and attending class when necessary. Investing is a process of practice that requires an understanding of the principles that govern the stock market and prices. This usually takes two bull and bear market cycles to fully comprehend. During the first encounter with a bull market, rising prices every day can make it seem easy to make money. But during the first encounter with a bear market, when prices are falling every day, it can feel like life is worse than death. It's only after the second encounter that one realizes that both bull and bear markets are just part of the process.



股市多空跟總體經濟循環是一致的，
景氣循環大概3到5年一個循環，一個循環指一上一下。

The bull market and bear market are synchronized with the economic cycle, which lasts approximately 3 to 5 years and encompasses one cycle of fluctuation, including a rise and fall.

經過2次循環亦即至少5年的時間才能夠體會，
過程中一群志同道合的人共同研究比較容易進入狀況。

It takes at least 2 cycles, or 5 years, for one to fully understand the stock market. In this process, it's easier for a group of people with shared beliefs to learn and understand the market together.

這幾年觀察同學做投資差異很大，本班有一位傑出校友凱元，
他是離投資很遠的人，在鐵工廠上班，一開始錢不多。
2008年5,000多點時來上課，知道那是低點就買滿股票，
重點是他懂得一路抱，抱到高點9,800減碼，
算一算了賺了2倍。
第二次在2012年初自己明白那是低點了，
他選的股票相當不錯，跟我推薦美利達、豐泰的表現都十分亮眼。

In recent years, I have observed significant differences in my students' investment behavior. One standout student is Kaiyuen, who started as a beginner investor. He previously worked in a steel factory and had limited funds. In 2008, he took my course when the stock market index was at 5,000 points, and he saw it as a low point to invest. He held onto his stocks for a long time, and when the index reached its peak at 9,800 points, he reduced his position, thereby doubling his investment. In early 2012, he once again recognized a low point and invested in stocks such as Merida Bikes (9914.TW) and Feng Tay (9910.TW), which turned out to perform well.



凱元2008年來找我時錢不多，
曾跟我說「一個人資產有 1 千萬元就是有錢人，
對他而言是遙不可及的夢。」
最近他說已經離1千萬不遠了，
用現代術語來講，以前千萬元是GPS上的小黑點，
現在則看到車尾燈。

When Kaiyuen came to see me in 2008, he didn't have much money. He told me, For someone with a net worth of ten million dollars, they are considered wealthy, a far-off aspiration for him. However, he recently informed me that he is nearing the ten million mark. To put it in contemporary terms, ten million dollars was once a speck on the GPS map, but now it is within reach, visible like a set of taillights.

有人問我如何衡量一個人是否學會巴菲特神功？
主要看兩點：若買的股票跟我的入圍名單長得很像，
又懂得在股價便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣。
做到這兩點就算學會巴菲特神功。

When asked how to determine if someone has learned the magic of Buffett, I use two criteria: first, whether the stocks they have acquired align with my personal watch list, and second, if they consistently follow the strategy of buying stocks at a cheap price and selling when the price is expensive. Adhering to these methods is a clear indication of a successful application of Buffett's teachings.

另外一位同學，凱元的同事，2011年9,000多點來上課，
我警告高點到了應當減碼，
他卻不聽仍去買了遊戲股和太陽能股，
因此賠了錢就對投資喪失信心。
在真的低點來臨，2012年初7,000點，反而不敢買股票。

A colleague of Kaiyuen, another student, came to class at more than 9,000 points in 2011. I advised him that the market was approaching its peak and it was time to sell. However, he ignored my warning and invested in video game and solar energy stocks instead. Unfortunately, this resulted in financial loss and eroded his confidence in investing. When the market declined to 7,000 points in 2012, he became too apprehensive to invest in stocks again.

凱元非常熱心一直拉著同事進場，還挑了5檔股票給他參考，
可是同事就是不敢買。
當時凱元連續打了5通電話問我？
我跟他說「GDP低點到了應該進場買股票，」同事不敢買。
我說「把股價圖攤開給他看，當時很多股票未漲，」還是不買。
我說「叫他買個3分之一，反正持股前3分之一亂買亂賣
都沒關係，」同事還是不敢。
最後只好說「把他的頭壓著，叫他一定要買、一定要買」，
後來同事總算買了，可是抱不到三天就賣掉了。
凱元問要如何才能讓他的同事敢買股票而且又願意抱著久？
我雙手一攤「不要理他了，很顯然他跟佛無緣，跟巴菲特無緣！」

Kaiyuen was eager to encourage his colleague to invest in stocks and even provided five specific stock tips, but his colleague was too scared to make the investment. Kaiyuen sought my advice several times. I advised that during a period of low GDP, it was a good time to invest in stocks, but the colleague was still wary. I recommended showing the colleague a stock price chart and explaining that many stocks hadn't risen yet, but the colleague remained hesitant. I encouraged the colleague to invest a third of their funds, emphasizing that the outcome of the first third doesn't matter, but the colleague was still uninterested. In the end, I told Kaiyuen to "Press his head to the desk and tell him to buy, to buy." and the colleague eventually invested, but sold the stocks after just three days. Kaiyuen asked me for advice on how to help his colleague overcome their fear and hold the stocks for a longer period. I shrugged my hands in frustration and said, "Forget about it, it's clear that the colleague has missed his chance with Buddha and missed the opportunity to learn from Mr. Buffett."



為何他的同事學巴菲特會失敗？
原因在上完課之後的第一次沒跟著照做，
9,000點我喊減碼，他未照做，未體會出股價的道理。
建議同學上課後的第一次不管願不願意
至少撥一半資金跟我們做做看。
現在來到1萬多點，更貴了，請持股勿超過一半，
跟著做一次，體會出股價道理，就容易學會神功。

Why did his colleague fail to learn the Buffett method? The reason is that he didn't follow my instructions after the class. I called to sell at 9,000, but he didn't, thus he was unable to fully comprehend the stock price concepts. My suggestion is that after the class, one should allocate at least half of their available funds towards investing with me, regardless of their personal preferences. The index currently stands at around 10,000 points, making the stock even more costly. It's not advisable to hold more than half of one's funds in stock. By following my lead just once, they will easily understand the principles of stock pricing.

本堂課會從最基本開始教，不用擔心完全沒概念，
上課過程有聽不懂的地方就舉手，
我即會停下來讓同學聽到懂為止。
只要給我2天，就可以把您變成巴菲特，
讓同學的投資思想跟行為跟巴菲特一樣。
即便是完全一竅不通的人也會玩全世界的股票，
只要給我2天的時間。

This course starts from the basics, so don't be concerned if you are a newcomer. If you have any questions during class, simply raise your hand and I will clarify until you fully understand. In just two days, I will transform you into a Buffett by imparting Mr. Buffett's investment strategies and approaches. Even individuals with no prior knowledge can learn to invest globally. Just give me two days.

mikeon88

講稿 2/21 知與不知
Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable

在進一步講解巴菲特理論之前要先提醒各位，
股票市場的風險非常大，80%的人賠錢！
這次儘管上了1萬點，可是賺到錢的人仍然不多，
因為多半漲在台積電、大立光，散戶不會買的股票。

Before discussing Buffett's theory, it's crucial to keep in mind that the stock market is associated with significant risks, with the majority of investors (80%) incurring losses. Despite the index reaching 10,000 points recently, only a few investors benefited as the majority of gains were focused in TSMC (2330.TW) and Largan (3008.TW), which are not widely held by retail investors.

這是股票，玩期貨、選擇權又是多少人賺錢？
今周刋訪問台灣期貨之神黃毅雄，
他說「玩期貨1萬人僅2人贏錢！」，
其意即沒有人能賺到錢。
黃桑雖貴為期貨之神，但一生中破產過8次，
想必這輩子過得很痛若。
一位期貨營業員曾跟我說，
他的客戶大概每3個月就會陣亡一批，
他主要工作是在開發新客戶。
一聽很令我錯愕，仔細思量，但是又何奈！

This is regarding equity investment. How many investors make a profit through futures and options trading?
The cover story of Business Today magazine features Taiwanese futures expert Yisiong Huang.
According to Huang, only 2 out of 100 players make money when trading futures.
This highlights the difficulty and risk involved in futures trading.
Interestingly, despite being a futures expert, Huang has declared bankruptcy 8 times in his life.
A futures broker once revealed to me that some of his clients lose all their money every three months.
His main responsibility is to acquire new clients.
This information was surprising and highlights the reality of the volatile nature of futures trading.

曾問過營業員玩當沖的多少人賺錢？
當沖即當日沖銷，當天先買後賣，或先賣再買，
看今天是開高走低或開低走高，
2種狀況猜對其一就會賺錢，機率應是1/2，
可是營業員說「玩當沖的人95%輸錢。」
我還回他「不錯啊！至少還有5%的人賺錢，」
營業員卻答「可是那5%的人每次都是不一樣的人。」

I once asked a broker about the success rate of day traders. Day trading involves buying and selling securities within the same day, or selling first and then buying. If a trader accurately predicts market trends, they can make a profit. Theoretically, the chance of success is 50%. The broker informed me that, unfortunately, 95% of day traders incur losses. I responded optimistically, "At least 5% of traders make money," but the broker retorted, "Those 5% of profitable traders change every time." This emphasizes the volatile and ever-changing nature of day trading and the difficulties associated with it.



這就是股市殘酷的事實，80%的人賠錢！
很多人一定奇怪，股票不是漲跟跌而已嗎，
用猜的機率該是1/2？
不是1/2，因為要猜2次，
買和賣都猜對才會賺錢，機率1/4。

This is the bitter truth about the stock market: 80% of investors fail to make a profit. Some investors might be surprised by this statistic, as they may have thought that stock prices only fluctuate, providing them with a 50-50 chance of making a successful investment. However, the reality is that one must accurately predict both the right time to purchase and the right time to sell, which decreases the probability of success to only 25%.



1/4接近25%，這就是股市80%的人賠錢的原因，
因為大部分人在玩猜的遊戲。
說大家在猜，一定有人不服氣，
投資人每天都很用功啊，
一大早起來要先看美股收盤收得怎麼樣，
然後再看工商、經濟各大財經報紙和雜誌，
甚至周六日都來上課，怎麼會說在猜呢？
因為大家花時間在研究一些不可知的問題，
不可能知道答案的問題。

The likelihood of success in the stock market is approximately 25%, which is why a majority of players, 80%, lose money. This statement that investing in the stock market is simply a matter of guesswork may be disputed by some. Many investors put in substantial effort, such as rising early to follow the close of the US market, reading well-known financial publications like the Commercial Times and Economics Daily, and even attending classes on weekends. However, the fact remains that they are analyzing uncertain variables and making predictions about unknowable events, making it plausible to argue that stock market investing is essentially a guessing game.

mikeon88

投資人都在研究什麼？
第一、都在問下個禮拜什麼股票最會漲？在找明牌，
這也是今天大家來上課最主要目的，看麥可報什麼明牌。
問題是誰知道呢？若有人認為可知，
請現在就把答案寫下來，等到下周五收盤後再核對看看，
保證一定猜錯。這是一個不可知的問題。

What are investors researching? They are interested in finding out which stocks will likely have the largest gains in the coming week and are seeking stock tips. The primary objective for everyone in the classroom is to seek advice from Michael. Who has the answer? If anyone thinks they know, please write down their response and check it after the end of next Friday. However, keep in mind that this is an unknowable issue, and it is possible that your guess will be incorrect.



第二、大家會看公司的獲利預估，今年、明年賺多少錢？
因為股價反應基本面。
公司的盈餘預估是分析師估的，
我以前就是外資電子股分析師，常常在拜訪公司，
問公司現在產能利用率如何？產品毛利是多少？
成本結構又怎樣？未來擴產計劃？
根據公司的回答估出獲利。

Secondly, everyone is examining the company's projections for its profits this year and next year, as stock prices reflect fundamental factors. The company's profit forecasts are made by analysts. I used to work as a foreign electronics analyst, frequently visiting companies and inquiring about their current capacity utilization rate, product gross margins, cost structure, and future expansion plans. I would then make profit projections based on the company's responses.

歐美基金經理人會要求預估未來3年，
日本則要未來5年，越長越好估。
一個日本經理人問我飛瑞電子未來5年盈餘預估，
我花不到5分鐘就估出來，本來當天要傳真給他，
覺得太快，隔一天才傳，
還在電話上跟他說「昨天特別加班幫你估這個數字。」
反正他亂問我就亂估，
問未來5年飛瑞電子獲利會如何？
我連自己未來5年人在什麼地方都不知？

European and American fund managers require profit projections for the next three years, while Japanese managers require forecasts for five years. The longer the forecast period, the easier it is to estimate. A Japanese manager once approached me for a five-year earnings forecast for Phoenix Electronics (2411.TW). I finished the estimate in under five minutes and initially planned to send it by fax on the same day, but decided it was too early and sent it the next day. I informed the manager over the phone that I had worked overtime the previous day to complete the estimate. Quick checks only produce rough estimates. How can one predict Phoenix Electronics's profits in the next five years? I don't even know where I'll be in the next five years.

當分析師時常常在事後把預估拿來驗證看看，
發現誤差都很大，不是30-40%的問題，而是方向，
我都估成長，其實多半衰退。
有人說分析師估不準是因為外部人，公司沒透露實情，
公司內部人知道什麼狀況？
即便公司老闆能夠掌握的也頂多未來3到6個月的出貨狀況，
客戶下單都是到前3個月才確認數量，
若當時市況不好後面的訂單就砍掉了。
可是我們都在看未來3年的獲利，瞎掰居多！

As an analyst, I frequently look back at past predictions. I have discovered that the error rate is substantial, not only in terms of magnitude (30-40%) but also in direction. I often predict growth, but it frequently turns out to be a decline. Some people attribute the lack of accuracy in predictions to the fact that analysts are outsiders and companies do not disclose all the relevant information. But what do the company insiders know? Even the CEO can only control deliveries up to the next 3 to 6 months. Customer orders are confirmed three months before they are placed, and if market conditions are unfavorable, orders can be cancelled. Despite this, we still focus on predicting profits for the next three years, often relying on conjecture.



當分析師時最喜歡問公司訂單能見度可以看未來幾個月？
如今自己開了這個班才發現這是一個非常好笑的問題。
若問我巴菲特班訂單能見度能看未來幾個月？
只能說這個月的招生狀況是好還是不好我大概可以猜得出來，
可是下個月以後就全然不知，因還零星在報名。
甚至問今天到底會有多少人來上課？
到現在都還搞不清楚，
不過比較好的是10:00再來清點人數就好，
因10:00才要叫便當，沒有存貨的問題。

As a researcher, I used to inquire about the visibility of orders for the company for the next few months. Now that I run my own class, I find it a funny question to ask. When asked about the visibility of orders for the Buffett class, I can only estimate the current month's enrollment status as good or not. Beyond that, I have no idea as enrollment is unpredictable. Even estimating the number of attendees for today's class remains uncertain. However, I need to conduct a headcount only at 10:00, as this is the time when lunch orders must be placed and there should be no concerns regarding inventory.

第三、投資人還會問股價多少錢可以買？將漲到多少錢？
這才是大家最想問的問題。

Third, investors frequently inquire about the purchase price and the expected stock appreciation. This is the most popular question among investors.

這幾年外資在看宏達電的股價，
2010年跌到300元時公司出來喊
「要展開機海戰略，不惜犧牲毛利率來搶市場占有率。」
一聽要犧牲毛利率，外資都在喊賣，後來股價漲到1,300元，
外資改口上看1,500，後來卻跌到40元。
顯見股價漲到多少連外資也看不清楚，
這是一個不可知的問題。

In recent years, foreign investors have been observing the stock price of HTC (2498.TW). In 2010, when the stock price fell to NT$300, the company announced, "We will launch an aggressive strategy to seize market share, even at the cost of sacrificing gross profit margin." Upon hearing about the sacrifice of gross profit margin, foreign investors started selling, but later the stock price rose to NT$1,300. Foreign investors revised their target price to NT$1,500, but later it fell to NT$40. It's evident that even foreign institutional investors don't have a clear understanding of where the stock price will go, making this an unknowable issue.



第四、大家會問大盤將漲到幾點？
尤其現在1萬多點了更是關心。
2016年6月英國脫歐，赫赫有名的大師都看得很空，
索羅斯喊「金融海嘯2.0來了！」
羅傑斯說「未來一兩年不會買股票」，
葛林斯潘「英國脫歐比1987年道瓊暴跌還糟」，
後來指數硬是創了新高，大師們全部摃龜，
由此可知這也是個不可知的問題。

Fourthly, individuals are curious about the extent of market growth, particularly given the market's current level of over 10,000 points. In June 2016, during the UK's vote to leave the EU, prominent experts held pessimistic views. Soros proclaimed "Financial crisis 2.0 is arriving!" while Rogers said "I won't be buying stocks in the next one or two years," and Greenspan stated "Brexit is even worse than the 1987 Dow Jones crash." Despite these predictions, the market defied expectations and hit new highs, causing these experts to be humbled. This emphasizes that the market's future is an unknowable matter.





在股市大家想問的問題不外乎以上4個而已。
這4個問題說穿了就在問股價的漲跌，
這是不可知的！
買股票的錢是大家辛辛苦苦賺來的血汗錢，
把它押在不可知的問題上是很危險的事，
股票不能玩猜的遊戲。

In the stock market, the questions on everyone's mind are typically limited to the above four. At their core, these questions concern the fluctuation of stock prices, which is unforeseeable. TThe funds invested in stocks are earned through hard work and it's perilous to gamble them on uncertain factors. Stock investment should not be approached as a game of luck.



我不是要大家一定要長期投資，而是不要猜。
投機speculation英文的原意是猜，
不是跑短是投機，長抱是投資，
而是猜是投機，不猜是投資。

I don't advocate that everyone should invest for the long-term, but avoid speculating. The etymology of "speculation" in English refers to making guesses. It's not that short-term is speculation, long-term is investment, but guessing is speculation, not guessing is investment.

mikeon88

學投資的第一步，非常重要的是要分清楚知跟不知，
投資充滿了變數，要如何才找到答案？
根據可知的事實去做決策就能找到答案！

The first step in learning to invest is to distinguish between knowing and not knowing, which is extremely important. The world of investment is full of variables, so how can we find the answer? The answer can be found by making decisions based on known facts.



什麼是可知？什麼是不可知？
股價的漲跌不可知，貴淑卻是可以算，
按盈再表就可得出股價貴或便宜。
只要在股價便宜時買，貴了賣掉，便宜買，貴了賣，
這樣一直做、反覆做，即能賺到大錢。
如此就不是在玩猜的遊戲，
因都是根據可知的事實在做決策，
賺錢的機率將大大提升。

What is knowable and what is unknowable? The fluctuation of stock prices is uncertain, but it can be assessed if a stock is cheap or expensive. Michael On's table calculates the fair value for each stock. By buying when stocks are underpriced and selling when they are overpriced, and repeating this strategy, one can enhance their wealth. This minimizes the reliance on guesswork as decisions are made based on verifiable data, thereby increasing the odds of making profits.

香港李嘉誠從2013年開始大量抛售中國的房地產，
轉去投資歐洲，買下許多英國公司。
這幾年中國房地產漲得老高，歐洲基礎產業卻很便宜。
甚至李超人的成份股香港電燈，香港電力公司，股價貴了，
一樣是把它分拆出去，然後把股權賣掉一半。

Li Ka-shing, a prominent figure in Hong Kong, started selling off his Chinese real estate in 2013 and redirected his attention towards European investments, acquiring multiple firms in the UK. In recent years, real estate prices in China have skyrocketed while infrastructure in Europe still remains relatively cheap-priced. Even Superman Li's core holding companies Hong Kong Electric (0006.HK), a Power Company, are expensive.
He split it up and sold half of his shares.

李嘉誠在幹嘛呢？就在賣貴的，去買便宜，
可是一般人卻是只要股價繼續漲，就不認為它貴，
這是贏家跟輸家的差別！

What Mr. Li is doing is just the basic strategy of buying cheap and selling expensive. As long as the stock price continues to rise, many investors consider it not overpriced. This distinguishes successful investors from unsuccessful ones.



「股價漲跌不可知」是世界上最難以了解的一句話，
第一堂課就特別強調，
可是上完課之後同學仍一直在問股價，
甚至拐彎抹角在問。
同學最喜歡問我「這支股票現在可以買嗎？」
正是在問這支股票買了之後會不會馬上漲？
因若買了之後下跌，就不是現在可以買。
我訓了他一頓「股價漲跌不可知，貴淑才可知」，
同學馬上問「夠便宜了嗎？」
仍然在問股價漲跌。

"The rise and fall of stock prices cannot be known" is one of the most difficult concepts in the world to grasp. Despite this emphasis in the first class, students kept asking about stock prices, even through indirect means. The question they are most concerned about is "Can I buy this stock now?" they are asking about the stock's immediate rise after purchase. If the stock price falls after buying, it is no longer a good time to buy. I tried to explain to them, "The rise and fall of the stock price is unknowable, but we can calculate whether a stock is cheap or expensive." However, the students quickly followed suit: "Is it cheap enough?" It shows that they are concerned about the rise and fall of stock prices.

mikeon88

講稿 3/21 巴六點
Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria

2004波克夏年報
1.大型股(每年稅前淨利至少7千5百萬美元)
2.展現一致的獲利能力
(Demonstrated consistent earning power)
(我們對未來的計畫或具轉機的公司沒興趣)
3.高ROE且低負債
4.良好的經營團隊(我們不提供管理人員)
5.簡單的企業(若牽涉到太多高科技，則超出我們的理解範圍)
6.出價(在價格未確定前，請勿浪費雙方太多時間)

我們將儘快答覆是否感興趣(不超過5分鐘)。

Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Annual Report
We are eager to hear from principals or their representatives about businesses that meet all of the following criteria:
(1) Large purchases (at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless the business will fit into one of our existing units),
(2) Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of no interest to us, nor are “turnaround” situations),
(3) Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,
(4) Management in place (we can’t supply it),
(5) Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),
(6) An offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily,
about a transaction when price is unknown).

We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer — customarily within five minutes — as to whether we’re interested.

來看一下巴菲特怎麼選股，祂的選股原則就這6點，
只要根據這6點去選股就可以跟祂一樣賺到大錢，
巴六點是全世界最偉大的一篇文獻。

In exploring Mr. Buffett's method for selecting stocks, it is clear that he relies on a set of six criteria. Adhering to these principles can lead to substantial financial gains similar to those achieved by Mr. Buffett. The 'Buffett Six Criteria' is regarded as a highly valuable tool for choosing stocks.

第一點選股原則：買大型股，稅前淨利至少7,500萬美金

這一點就跟我們平常的想法不一樣，
我們小散戶不喜歡買大型股，因股性牛皮不會漲。
我們喜歡買小型股，以為籌碼少、易炒作。
小型股的確是易炒作，問題是誰被炒作？
飆股在還沒有飆上去之前誰知道會飆？
等到飆上去了想追又不敢追，心裡癢癢的，
下定決心追上去往往高興不了幾天就跌下來而被套牢，
每天過著提心吊膽的日子，
小型股易炒作，是我們被人家炒作。

The first criteria: Large purchases, at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings

This is different from our usual thinking. As retail investors, we do not favor buying large cap stocks because of their steady price fluctuations. We prefer small-cap stocks because we think they have less capital and are easier to speculate. While it is true that small-cap stocks are easier to speculate, the question is who is being taken advantage of? Who knows which stocks will surge before they actually do? When the stocks surge and we want to follow but dare not, it's itching. Determined to catch up, prices often fall and we get trapped after a few days of excitement. We live a life full of fear every day. Small-cap stocks are easy to speculate, but it is we who are being speculated.

這裡提到大型股，老巴看的是公司獲利，
可是一般在定義大型股或小型卻是看股本，
這兩種定義何者有道理？
買股票是希望它來幫我們賺錢，
能夠賺到大錢的才是大公司，
賺不了錢股本大何用！
看獲利才有道理。

Here when referring to large stocks, Mr. Buffett focuses on the company's profitability, while the distinction between large and small stocks is typically based on market capitalization. Which of these two criteria is more meaningful? As investors, we buy stocks with the aim of generating profit and only those that can generate substantial profits can be considered big companies. If a company is not profitable, then having a large market capitalization is of no value. Checking for profitability is therefore the logical thing to do.



第二點選股原則：要展現過一致的獲利能力

很多人跟巴菲特報明牌，
祂會要求先看一下那家公司過去5年的財報。
什麼公司祂會有興趣？
不僅今年度業績要好，過去5年的獲利也要很穩定。
如果跟祂報勝華、元太、威盛這3家公司雖然過去的獲利很糟糕，
可是未來將有轉機，會有爆發力，
這種鬼故事祂是不會相信的。

The second criteria: Demonstrated consistent earning power

People recommend acquisition targets to Buffett, who then asks to see the financial reports of the company for the past five years. For a company to catch his attention, it must demonstrate not only strong earnings this year, but also a steady performance over the past five years. Claims of future turnarounds and explosive growth potential for companies such as Wintek (2384.TW), E Ink (8069.TW) and VIA Technologies (2388.TW), which have shown poor profits in the past, are unlikely to persuade him.

巴菲特提到「我們對未來的計劃沒興趣」，
什麼是未來計劃？就是公司的獲利預估。
分析師根據未來擴產計劃估出公司的獲利，
老巴竟沒興趣看，這一點讓我非常傷心，
當分析師花很多時間估的數字，想不到祂沒有興趣看！

Mr. Buffett stated that "future projections are of no interest to us" These future projections refer to the profit projections made for the company. Analysts estimate the company's profits based on its expansion plans. It can be discouraging to realize that Mr. Buffett does not have any interest in these projections. As a former analyst, I put in a significant amount of time creating these projections, only to find that Mr. Buffett does not consider them relevant.



第三點原則：高ROE而且要低負債

何為ROE？ 後面會解釋，
多高才是高ROE？ 指15%以上。
我們把一年定存利率固定在6.7%作為比較基礎，這是正常時期的利率，
當然現在利率已不到1%，因長期不景氣的結果。
一旦經濟恢復正常，合理的狀況利率應回升到6.7%。

The third criteria: Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt

What is ROE ? I will explain later.
An ROE higher than 15% is considered high. The one-year time deposit interest rate, which serves as a benchmark for evaluation, is set at 6.7% in normal economic times. However, due to the prolonged recession, current interest rates are lower than 1%. It is expected that interest rates will rise to 6.7% once the economy recovers.

一家公司的獲利能力好，指它的ROE比正常時期定存利率6.7%
好 1 倍以上才叫好，所以高ROE是15%以上。

A company's good profitability can be indicated by an ROE that is two times higher than the normal deposit rate of 6.7%. When this occurs, the ROE is considered high if it exceeds 15%.



第四點原則：要有良好的經營團隊，我們不提供管理人員

老巴管理好幾兆台幣的資產，
2017年波克夏帳上現金3兆台幣(1,000億美金)，
台灣中央政府歲出也才2兆，所謂富可敵國不過如此。
祂的錢70%在做併購，另外30%才在市場上買股票，
一般在作併購，都派自己人員去進駐，把公司整頓好，
可是巴菲特不一樣的地方則是讓他們自己去管理自己。

The fourth criteria: Management in place (we can’t supply it)

Mr. Buffett oversees several trillion Taiwanese dollars worth of assets. In 2017, Berkshire Hathaway had a total cash of NT$3 trillion (equivalent to US$100 billion), which was significantly more than the Taiwanese government's annual expenditure of NT$2 trillion, earning Mr. Buffett the title of being "richer than the country."

Of Mr. Buffett's funds, around 70% are allocated for mergers and acquisitions, while the remaining 30% are invested in stocks. While many companies send their own personnel to reorganize target companies during a merger, Mr. Buffett adopts a unique approach by allowing the companies he acquires to manage themselves.

看過一本書叫「巴菲特的CEO」，
作者訪問被祂併購公司的CEO，
問他們當初巴菲特是怎麼來談的？
那些CEO都說其實當初老巴問的問題都很簡單，
只是問一些財報上的數字，一年賺多少錢？
多少存貨？多少應收帳款？
最後老巴會問CEO一句話「有沒有興趣留下來幫我工作？」
若CEO點頭祂就把公司買下來，
之後好幾年不曾去看過那家公司，頂多看看每季財報。

I recently read a book named "Warren Buffett's CEO" in which the author interviewed the CEOs of companies that had been acquired by Mr. Buffett. The author sought to understand the questions Mr. Buffett posed during the acquisition process. The CEOs reported that Mr. Buffett's inquiries were straightforward and mainly centered on financial reports, including the company's annual earnings, inventory, and accounts receivable. Lastly, Mr. Buffett always asked the CEO if they were willing to continue working for him, and if the answer was yes, he would complete the acquisition. After the purchase, Mr. Buffett infrequently visited the company and mainly monitored its quarterly earnings reports.named "Warren Buffett's CEO" in which the author interviewed the CEOs of companies that had been acquired by Mr. Buffett. The author sought to understand the questions Mr. Buffett posed during the acquisition process. The CEOs reported that Mr. Buffett's inquiries were straightforward and mainly centered on financial reports, including the company's annual earnings, inventory, and accounts receivable. Lastly, Mr. Buffett always asked the CEO if they were willing to continue working for him, and if the answer was yes, he would complete the acquisition. After the purchase, Mr. Buffett infrequently visited the company and mainly monitored its quarterly earnings reports.



關於這一點，我也有做到，
我買了一張台積電也是讓他自己管理自己，
並沒有把張忠謀叫來問「你現在在幹嘛？」

Concerning this, I have taken a similar approach. I acquired a share of TSMC and allowed it to operate autonomously, without summoning CEO Morris Chang to inquire, "What are you doing now?"

第五點原則：簡單的企業，
牽涉太多的高科技將超出我們的理解範圍

巴菲特比較少買電子股，並非祂不了解電子股，
而是電子股不符合祂的選股原則，
因為電子業的產品都會變，一旦變了之後公司的獲利就變了樣。
光碟片中環跟錸德在CD-R時代非常賺錢，
DVD之後竟然虧損累累。

The fifth criteria: Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it)

Buffett invests less in high-tech stocks, not because he lacks understanding of the industry, but because they do not align with his principles for stock selection. The constant changes in the technology industry often result in fluctuations in company profits. For example, companies like CMC (2323.TW) and Riteck (2349.TW) were profitable during the CD-R era, but suffered significant losses after the introduction of DVD technology.

這幾年波克夏在開股東大會台灣財經媒體也會派記者去參加，
2008年記者訪問到巴菲特，問祂有無興趣投資台灣？
老巴說台灣的公司都太小不夠他買。
記者又問有無看好什麼公司？
老巴回「台灣的半導體製造還不錯！」
聽祂這樣講就知道在指哪家公司？
當然是台積電！絕對不是聯電，
若要我們去挑一家台灣最具有國際競爭力的公司，
我們也會挑台積電。
由此可知巴菲特研究過台灣，而且懂電子，才會一講就講到重點！

Taiwan's financial media have sent reporters to Berkshire's shareholder meetings in recent years. In 2008, a reporter interviewed Buffett and asked about his interest in investing in Taiwan. Buffett stated that the size of Taiwanese companies was too small for him. The reporter then asked if there was a promising company, to which Buffett replied that Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing companies are excellent. When asked for a specific company, it is evident that he was referring to TSMC, not UMC (2303.TW). If we were to choose the most internationally competitive company in Taiwan, our choice would also be TSMC. This demonstrates that Mr. Buffett has thoroughly researched the Taiwan market and possesses a strong understanding of high-tech stocks. He is concise and to the point!

若有經久不變的電子公司老巴仍然會買，
從2011年開始巴菲特就大買IBM，買超過8%股份，成為最大股東。
IBM這幾年轉型從一個純粹的電腦硬體製造商，
變成系統整合商，硬體跟軟體全包。
一家公司的電腦系統，像人事、薪資、倉儲系統
整個交給IBM去設計的話，它的電腦都將從此全部用IBM的，
因系統非常複雜，不可能說換就換。
這樣一轉型經久不變的特質就出來了，因此巴菲特大買IBM。
IBM的ROE非常高，獲利還算穩定，
老巴買在180元美金，預期報酬率29%，買得很便宜。

If a high-tech company has a strong, long-lasting presence, Mr. Buffett may invest in it. This is demonstrated by his ownership of over 8% of IBM's shares since 2011, making him the largest shareholder. In recent years, IBM has transformed from a computer hardware manufacturer to a system integrator, providing both hardware and software solutions. When a company outsources its computer systems, such as personnel, salaries, and storage systems, to IBM, it becomes locked into using IBM's systems due to the complexity of the systems. This gives IBM a durable advantage and was a factor in Mr. Buffett's decision to invest. IBM has a high ROE and stable profits, and Mr. Buffett bought its shares for $180 with an expected return of 29%, which he considered a great value.



從2017年開始老巴賣光IBM持股，原因是在雲端業務競爭力不強。
近幾年遲不見轉機，股價表現疲弱，
在績效壓力下才賣掉。

Since 2017, Mr. Buffett has sold his IBM shares due to the underperformance of the company's cloud computing business. The company's stock price has been weak and its performance has not significantly improved in recent years, leading to pressure from investment performance, and ultimately resulting in Mr. Buffett's decision to sell.

第六點原則是要出價，在價格還沒有確定之前
不要浪費大家太多時間。

巴菲特為什麼要訂這個條款？
因為併購需要花長時間談判，
賣方見買方越來越有興趣往往暗地裡把售價抬高，
為了避免哄抬，要求先把售價提出來，祂會殺價的。

The sixth criteria: an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown)

Mr. Buffett established this clause to prevent high bidding during M&A negotiations, which can take a long time. When the seller senses the buyer's increased interest in the transaction, they often raise the price. To avoid this, he wants the seller to initiate the offer and engage in bargaining

mikeon88

以上6點原則就是巴菲特的選股原則，
看了以上6點，請問同學哪一點的印象最深刻？

The above six criteria are Buffett's principles for selecting stocks. Which of these criteria do you find most impressive?

讓我印象最深刻的是第六點底下那一點
「我們將盡快答覆是否感興趣(不超過5分鐘)」
這點是最初在看巴菲特傳記覺得最不可思議的一點。
我是分析師，一家公司若完全沒有看過需花許多時間研究，
要先把公司的財報和相關產業報告拿出來看一下，
再到公司拜訪個2次以上，
才能確定這家公司好還是不好？
可是巴菲特居然稱不用5分鐘就可以答覆是否感興趣，
令人不可思議。

What caught my attention the most was the following statement under the sixth criterion: “We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer — customarily within five minutes — as to whether we’re interested.” This was one of the most remarkable things I came across while reading about Buffett. Being an analyst, researching a new company can be a tedious task that requires going through financial reports, industry reports, and making multiple visits to the company. But according to Mr. Buffett, he can make a decision on whether he's interested in investing in a company within five minutes. It's truly remarkable.

祂說5分鐘是指有興趣來談，整個流程是這樣：
有人跟祂推薦某家公司，祂會要求看公司過去5年財報，
5分鐘之後即會表明有沒有興趣來談，
至於買或不買沒那麼快，還需要經過一段時間談判。

He stated that the five minutes refer to the time it takes for him to reply on his interest in delving deeper. The process goes like this: if someone recommends a company to him, he will ask for the last five years of the company's financial reports. If he's interested, he'll respond within five minutes. However, the act of purchasing may not be as swift as it requires time for negotiation.



覺得不可思議是巴菲特沒養任何分析師，
所有投資的案子都是祂一個人在看。
其他投資大師養一堆分析師幫忙過濾案子，
1994年我在怡富證券，曾在香港怡和酒店
跟索羅斯
的分析師一起吃早餐，跟他介紹台灣的IC產業。
老巴沒養分析師，所有案子都祂一人在看，居然不用5分鐘。

I am amazed that Mr. Buffett doesn't have any analysts working for him. He personally evaluates all investment opportunities, while many other fund managers rely on a team of analysts to help them research. In 1994, while I was working at Jardine Fleming Securities, I had the chance to have a working breakfast at the Mandarin Hotel in Hong Kong with Soro's analyst and presented information about Taiwan's integrated circuit industry. Unlike other fund managers, Mr. Buffett does not have an analyst. He does his own research and doesn't need five minutes to make a decision.

而且巴菲特投資的金額都很大，
祂買的那家鐵路公司花了440億美金，台幣1.3兆，
這麼大一筆錢若交給我們去投資，請問要想多久？
不要說5分鐘，一年半載都還下不了手。

And Buffett's investments are also very significant. The railway company he acquired cost US$440 million, or NT$1.3 trillion. If we were given such a large amount for investment, how long would we take to decide? It wouldn't be as quick as five minutes, it would take us a year and a half to make a final decision.

現在讓我覺得不可思議的是為什麼要5分鐘這麼久！
有了盈再表根本不用5分鐘，只要15秒內就可以完成。
底下這張表就是盈再表，
把股票代號輸入到左上角1723這一個格，
按Enter就會把資料抓下來，整個過程15秒內完成。
右上角若出現「合格」就差不多。

What puzzles me now is why it takes so long to 5 minutes. With the help of On's table, the process of determining interest in a company takes only 15 seconds, not five minutes. The table is called On's table. To use it, simply enter the stock code into cell 1723 in the top left corner, press enter to retrieve the data, and the whole process will be completed within 15 seconds. A stock is considered qualified if "OK" appears in the top right corner.



盈再表下載在討論區置頂處，有Excel版和網頁版。
Excel版盈再表只能在電腦Windows11系統底下跑，
Office請升級到2010以後，Office365可用，Open Office 不行 !!
打開Excel版盈再表，上方出現「啟用內容」點它即可使用。

The On’s table download is pinned at the top of the discussion forum. There are both Excel and web versions available.
The Excel version of the On’s table  can only run on a computer with the Windows 11 system. Please upgrade Office to 2010 or later; Office 365 is supported, but Open Office is not!
When you open the Excel version of the On’s table, click on 'Enable Content' at the top to use it."



拿到盈再表之後同學將不會抱怨為何要學費這麼高 ，
有同學說「光盈再表的價值至少就值學費了」
一聽原以為他在稱讚我，
仔細一想才發現不對，他在罵我，
因盈再表的價值超過學費，
那不表示我上這堂課沒有價值？

Upon obtaining On's table, you will no longer question the high tuition fee. Some students have stated that the value of On's table is worth more than the tuition. Initially, I interpreted this as a compliment, but upon further thought, I realized it was intended as a joke. If the value of On's table surpasses the tuition fee, does this imply that my lectures have no value?

記者問巴菲特「在你的投資準則哪一點最重要？」
老巴說「可持續的競爭力和良好的經營團隊最重要！」
記者又問「如何評估經營團隊？」
老巴回「我主要看過去的紀錄，發現跟打棒球不同，
經理人年紀越大越好。」(引自Business Wire 2006年2月)
巴菲特說他最喜歡買的公司是創辦人準備退休，
想把股票換成鈔票，好好去享受人生。
張忠謀應該打通電話給巴菲特，把公司賣給祂會比較好。

A reporter asked Mr. Buffett what the most important criteria was for his investments, to which he replied that sustainability and a strong management team were the key factors. The reporter then asked how he evaluated the management team, and Mr. Buffett said he focused on their past performance, adding that investing was different from playing baseball and that older managers were typically better. (Quoted from Business Wire, February 2006). Mr. Buffett's ideal company is one whose founder is close to retirement and looking to cash in their stock and enjoy their later years. It is suggested that Morris Chang reach out to Mr. Buffett and consider selling TSMC to him.



巴菲特喜歡買老的公司，這一點跟我們的想法又不一樣。
我們小散戶喜歡買新上市櫃股票，以為有蜜月期股價會飆，
可是蜜月期之後下場都沒有很好。

Mr. Buffett has a preference for buying well-established companies, which is different from the common perception. Retail investors often purchase newly-listed stocks with the hope that the stock prices will rise during the initial excitement period. However, the results are not always positive once the initial excitement phase ends.

其實台股也是一樣，讓人買得放心的公司多半是老公司，
別說傳統產業統一、台塑、巨大是老公司，
即便電子股台達電、台積電也是老公司，
經得起時間考驗的公司才是買得放心的公司。

In fact, the situation is similar in Taiwan's stock market. Companies that are established and have a proven track record are usually more likely to instill confidence in investors. This applies not just to traditional industries like Uni-President (1216.TW), Formosa Plastics (1301.TW), and Giant (9921.TW), but also to electronics companies such as Delta Electrics (2308.TW) and TSMC. The ability to withstand the test of time can bring reassurance to investors.

從以上幾點看來，發現我們選股的角度跟巴菲特不一樣：
我們喜歡買小型股，巴菲特買大型股。
公司的大小我們看的是股本，老巴著重淨利。
公司的獲利我們看預估，老巴則重視過去的紀錄。
我們喜歡買轉機股，老巴強調獲利要維持一致，......。
選股的觀點跟巴菲特不同，
這是為何我們投資會賠錢原因，
因我們跟在股市賺到大錢的人看法相左，
所以要來學巴菲特！

Our stock selection methodology contrasts greatly with Mr. Buffett's approach. As retail investors, we tend to invest in smaller stocks, whereas Mr. Buffett primarily focuses on larger stocks. We determine a company's worth based on its market capitalization, while Mr. Buffett considers its net profit. We look at a company's predicted profits, while Mr. Buffett assesses its historical performance. We are drawn to turnarounds, while Mr. Buffett prioritizes consistent profits. This difference in stock picking philosophy contributes to our underperformance in the market. To improve our success in the stock market, it's important to learn from experienced investors such as Mr. Buffett.

mikeon88

前面的巴六點在告訴我們什麼樣的公司可以長期維持高ROE，
不過祂的文字敘述有點模糊，
把它改寫成我的5點選股原則：
1. 看過去5年ROE是否穩定且大於15%
2. 配得出現金 (盈再率小於80%+配息率大於40%)
3. 不會變的公司
4. 公司要夠大 (淨利大於5億元，上市櫃滿2年)
5. 老闆要有誠信 (董監持股至少10%)

The six criteria mentioned by Mr. Buffett highlight the characteristics of a company that can maintain a high return on equity over a prolonged period. However, his language may be somewhat ambiguous, so I have rephrased it as Michael On's five criteria for stock selection:
1. Check if the return on equity (ROE) has been stable and above 15% over the past 5 years.
2. Look for high dividends, with a profit reinvestment rate below 80% and a dividend payout ratio above 40%.
3. Durable business model
4. Large purchase, including at least NT$500 million in net earnings and a minimum of two years of public listing or over-the-counter trading.
5. Integrity management, specifically by checking if the board of directors holds a minimum of 10% of the company's shares.

1、2、3點是主要條件，一定要遵守。
4、5是次要條件，不遵守沒關係，不過後果要自行負責。

Criteria 1, 2, and 3 are the primary considerations and must be strictly adhered to. Criteria 4 and 5 are secondary and may be taken into account at the discretion of the individual, but one must be aware of the potential consequences of such considerations.

這5點原則不需要背，只要會看就好，因已經寫進盈再表，
都符合會出現「合格」兩個字。
若無「合格」表示有不合格的地方，用紅色字標示。

You don't have to memorize these five criteria, as they are already recorded in On's table. If all the conditions are met, an "OK" will appear. If there is no "OK", it indicates that some of the conditions are not met and will be highlighted in red.



台灣大車隊，在表上的右上角未出現「合格」，
請問是哪裡不合格？哪裡有紅色字？
第一、預期報酬率僅2%，不到15%，15%的才夠便宜。
第二、最近3年的配息率有一年不及40%。
第三、常利沒大於5億元。
第四、上市櫃未滿2年。
這幾點不合格，所以沒出現「合格」。
紅字底下加底線，為方便色弱者辨識，
與紅字同表不合格，而非指負數。

Taiwantaxi (2640.TW) has not met the "OK" criteria in the form, indicating that certain standards have not been achieved. These unmet standards include:
The expected return of 2% is lower than the minimum requirement of 15%.
The payout ratio in the last three years was less than 40% in one year.
The recurring net profit was less than NT$500 million in one year.
It has been less than 2 years since its listing or over-the-counter trading.
Due to these four unsatisfied criteria, the "OK" designation does not appear.

To make it easier for those with weaker color perception, an underline can be added below the red number to clearly indicate that the condition has not been met. This underline is equivalent to the red number, representing a non-compliant condition.

先來看一下第四和第五這兩個條件。
第四點公司要夠大，是呼應巴六點的第一點要買大型股。
公司要夠大，我們有2個條件：
1. 上市櫃要滿2年，
2. 淨利大於5億元。

Let's examine the fourth and fifth criteria. The fourth principle states that the company must be of significant size, which aligns with the first criterion of the six proposed by Buffett for large purchases. To meet this requirement, the company must meet the following conditions:

It must have been listed or traded OTC for a minimum of 2 years.
It must have a net profit exceeding NT$500 million.

上市櫃要滿2年，許多新上市櫃公司剛掛牌時獲利都很好，
可是沒2年即衰退，何故？
這些公司可能是趁獲利最佳時來上市，
或是以往的獲利就不怎麼樣，
為達到上市櫃標準把業績集中入帳，上市之後又恢復原狀。
這種公司很多，關中、益通都是，
益通剛上市時還曾是股王，現在股價不到當時的10分之一，
買到這種股票跟踩到地雷股沒兩樣。

Many IPOs experience a drop in profits two years after going public for several reasons. Some companies may go public during a period of high profits, while others may employ accounting techniques such as window-dressing to meet listing criteria, only to revert to their previous state afterwards. Grand Hall (8941.TW) and E-Ton (3452.TW) are among the companies that fall into this category.

When it first listed, E-Ton was a stock market leader with a high stock price. Now, its stock price has fallen to less than a tenth of what it was then. Investing in this stock is similar to taking a gamble on a potentially hazardous security.

這種公司從財報看不出來，因它的業績是真的，不是假的。
如何預防？很簡單，
先晾在旁邊，等上市櫃滿2年之後再來看它就可以。

These types of companies are not easily recognizable from their financial reports, as the profit records are authentic, not false. To prevent this, the solution is simple: wait for two years after its listing before evaluating it as a potential investment.

第二個條件淨利大於5億元的公司才買，
太小的公司很容易夭折，建議「轉大人」再買。
巴菲特訂稅前淨利7,500萬美金，那是美股的條件，
台股我建議稅後淨利大於5億元台幣。

The second criterion for investing is to only purchase companies with net profits exceeding NT$500 million. Small companies are often not stable and have a higher risk of failure. It's advised to wait until the company "matures" before investing. Mr. Buffett requires a pre-tax net profit of $75 million as a condition for investing in US stocks. For Taiwanese stocks, I suggest a minimum net profit after tax of NT$500 million.



第五點條件公司的老闆要有誠信，
這是巴菲特最重視的選股條件。
不過誠信兩個字非常抽象，如何衡量？
我拜訪過無數上市櫃公司，從未見過有老闆會說他公司不好的，
再怎麼爛的公司也會說下半年就將轉虧為盈。
既然每個老闆都自誇公司好，那就多買一點股票給我們看，
我設定董監持股至少10%以上才叫做老闆有誠信。

The fifth investment criterion is the integrity of the company's leadership. Buffett attaches great importance to honesty. However, assessing integrity can be difficult, as it is a vague term. In my experience, I have not seen company executives admit to their company's weaknesses. Despite poor performance, they may still assert that they will turn things around in the second half of the year. Given that all executives may inflate their company's success, I require board members to own a minimum of 10% of the company's shares as evidence of their honesty and dedication.

10%是低標，不是高標，因為一家公司的董監事至少7-8個人，
平均一個大股東才1％多一點的股票登記在自己名下，
這是很低的標準。
有些公司會說他的老闆為避遺產稅，拿股票去成立信託，
轉登記在信託基金名下。
這雖然合理，可是總不能都避光光，
鴻海郭台銘也成立股票信託，可是至少還有12%股票登記在名下，
這才算有誠信。

The requirement for board members to hold a minimum of 10% of the company's shares is not considered a strict standard, as many companies have 7-8 directors on their board. Significant shareholders generally hold more than 1% of the company's shares in their own name. This low standard leaves room for interpretation. Some companies may argue that their leaders have established a trust to avoid estate taxes, and the shares are registered in the trust's name. While this is a valid justification, it's not guaranteed that all shares will be transferred to the trust. For example, Terry Guo, CEO of Hon Hai Group, has a trust, but still holds at least 12% of the shares in his own name, which is seen as a display of honesty.



同學按盈再表也會得到這樣結論：
好公司的董監持股都在20% 以上，中碳董監持股35%，大統益66%。
低於10%以下都是爛公司。
這個原則有例外，好公司可是董監持股未超過10%以上，
台積電台達電就是，這兩家外資持股台積電80%，台達電超過70%，
它們已經不是台灣公司，而是外國公司，
張忠謀只是一個經理人而已。
大部份IC設計公司董監持股都沒有超過10%，這昭然若揭了，
IC設計變化劇烈，連老闆也不敢把太多的股票登記在名下，
以後要賣比較方便。

You will observe the following patterns after analyzing On's table: Board members of high-quality companies tend to hold a larger share of the company's stock, such as the 35% held by the board members of China Steel Chemical (1723.TW) or the 66% held by the board members of TTET Union (1232.TW). On the other hand, board members of lower quality companies typically hold less than 10% of the shares. However, there are exceptions to this pattern. For instance, some well-regarded companies have board members who own only 10% or less of the shares, such as TSMC and Delta Electronics. These companies, however, are not considered Taiwanese companies as the majority of their shares are owned by foreign investors. In this case, Morris Chang is just a manager. Furthermore, most IC design companies have board members who own less than 10% of the shares. This is because the IC design industry is constantly changing and even the CEO may not want to register too many shares in their name, making it easier to sell their shares if the company's profits decline.



看誠信問題我們還會注意一點，近年流行公司分割，
把部門獨立出去成另外一家公司，
可是母公司對它的持股常不及60%，
這也是一種形式的掏空，沒有誠信。

With regards to integrity, we will focus on one specific aspect. Spin-offs, which involve the separation of a department into a separate company, have become popular in recent years. However, the parent company's stake in the spin-off is frequently less than 60%, indicating a dilution of integrity.

U公司獨立出去很多家子公司M、N、F，
都是很好的公司，但是U公司持股只有20%。
20多年來U公司股價跌得不成形，
股東都賠得很慘，C先生的身價卻是未減，
他是全世界十大華人收藏古董最多的人，
隨便丟個宋朝碟子出來拍賣就值數10億元，
實在令人不解？

English:The company U spun off several subsidiary companies M, N, and F, which are all successful but U only holds 20% of the shares. Despite a prolonged decline in U's stock price for over 20 years, causing substantial losses for shareholders, Mr. C's wealth remains intact. He is renowned for having the largest collection of antiques among the top ten collectors in China and recently sold a Song Dynasty dish at auction for a value of NT$1 billion. Is it really confusing ?

做這種事情的老闆還有很多，
像威O的紅姨是最離譜，她曾經是台灣的首富，
因為宏OO的股票，它本來是威O的子公司，
威O虧損累累，居然還會成為首富。

There are numerous bosses engaging in unethical behavior. Among them, Aunt W of V company stands out as particularly absurd. She was once the wealthiest individual in Taiwan as the primary shareholder of Company H. However, Company H is a subsidiary of the struggling and loss-making V company. Despite this, Aunt W has managed to maintain her status as the richest person.

另外像華O是O寶獨立出去的，長O是華O分出去的，
母公司持股都只有20-30%。

Furthermore, CC company was spun off from C company, and CW company was spun off from WL company. In these spin-off events, the parent company only retains 20-30% of the shares.

相反的，什麼公司才算是有誠信？
鴻海對富士康的持股高達73%，
當年富士康在香港掛牌時股價狂飆了好幾倍，
同時期鴻海股價也跟著漲，因持股73%可以反應回來。

On the other hand, which company boss is considered to be honest? Hon Hai holds 73% of Foxconn's shares. When Foxconn was listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, its stock price saw a substantial increase. During this time, Hon Hai's stock price also rose due to its ownership of 73% of Foxconn's shares.

總之，看公司老闆誠信需注意2點：
第一、董監持股要大於10%。
第二、公司分割出去持股不能低於6成以下。

In conclusion, to assess the integrity of company executives, two factors are considered:
1. Board members must have a minimum ownership of 10% of the company's shares.
2. After a spin-off, the parent company's shareholding ratio must not be below 60%.

mikeon88

講稿 4/21 物美價廉
Lecture 4/21 Good quality and low price

進一步講解巴菲特理論之前，先來複習基本的會計觀念，
因選股主要從財報看出來。

Before delving deeper into the Buffett theory, let's first review the basic accounting concepts. Stock selection is primarily based on financial reports.

財報有2張，第一張叫資產負債表，記載公司有什麼資產。
這間教室若是一家公司有何資產？
桌子、投影機、電腦...
這些資產用什麼錢買的？錢的來源不外乎兩個：
借的錢就是負債，公司自己的錢為淨值。
資產負債表的基本架構就是資產 = 負債 + 淨值。

Financial reports have two statements, with the first being the balance sheet. This document records a company's assets, such as desks, projectors, and computers. The funds used to acquire these assets come from two sources: borrowed money, which is listed as a liability, and the company's own funds, recorded as equity. The balance sheet follows a basic formula where assets are equal to liabilities plus equity.



資產裡有流動資產，最容易變成現金的東西。
什麼東西容易變成現金？
第一當然是現金本身。
第二是短期投資，一年以內會處分的股票和債券。
公司手上現金通常把短期投資跟現金跟加起來算，
因為公司的錢有時候會去玩股票或買債券基金，很容易變現。
第三是應收帳款，客戶欠的錢收回來就變成現金了。
第四是存貨，賣掉就變成現金。

Current assets are part of a company's assets and are the easiest to convert to cash. Cash itself is the first of these assets, followed by short-term investments such as stocks and bonds that are expected to be sold within a year. The company's cash balance often includes these short-term investments as they can be easily converted to cash. The third type is accounts receivable, which becomes cash once payment is received from customers. Lastly, there is inventory, which transforms into cash when sold.

另外兩個不容易變成現金的科目，
一是長期投資，一年以上才會處分的股票或債券，
通常指轉投資的股票。
最後一個最不易變現的是固定資產，機器、設備、廠房、土地。
所謂的資本支出即用來擴廠的錢，
包括在固定資產跟長期投資，
有些公司透過轉投資去海外設廠，像鴻海就是，
要算它的資本支出，須把固定資產和長期投資加起來算。

There are two other types of assets that are less liquid. The first is long-term investments, like stocks and bonds, which are typically held for more than a year, with subsidiary stocks being a common example. The second, which is the most difficult to convert to cash, is fixed assets, such as machinery, equipment, factories, and land. Capital expenditures refer to the funds used for expanding production and comprise both fixed assets and long-term investments. For companies like Hon Hai, which have established overseas factories through subsidiaries, the calculation of their capital expenditures involves the sum of both fixed assets and long-term investments.

資產負債表右邊的淨值，是公司自己的錢，
分為2個科目股本和保留。
股本等於股數乘以面額10元，
股數是公司所有權切成幾塊。

The equity on the right side of the balance sheet represents a company's own funds, which are divided into two accounts: capital and reserves. Capital is calculated by multiplying the number of shares by a set par value, such as NT$10. The number of shares represents the company's ownership divided into smaller portions.

保留有2個科目
一是盈餘公積，公司賺的錢保留下來。
另一個是資本公積，包括現金增資的溢價、資產重估增值、
合併時所產生的商譽。
現金增資就是公司印股票跟股東要錢，
一股若賣60元，其中10元記為股本，50元記為資本公積。

The reserves account in equity includes two sub-accounts. The first is retained earnings, which represents money that the company has kept from its profits. The second is capital surplus, which encompasses additional paid-in capital, increases in the value of assets, and goodwill generated from mergers. For example, if a company raises funds through the issuance of new shares, selling each stock for NT$60, NT$10 would be recorded as capital and NT$50 as capital surplus.

淨值也稱淨資產，又稱股東權益，
也叫帳面價值，或自有資本，都是一樣的意思。
ROE就是淨值報酬率或股東權益報酬率。

Equity is also referred to as net assets, net worth, book value, or own capital, and all these terms mean the same thing. ROE, or return on equity, is the return that a company earns on the equity it holds.



第二張報表叫做損益表，記載公司如何賺錢？
賺錢的來源不外乎本業跟業外。
本業賺的錢叫做營業利益，等於營收減成本減費用。
製造業的營收是sales，服務業為收入revenue。
跟產品直接相關的叫成本，間接相關為費用。
這一隻筆賣10元，營收記為10元，
製筆需買材料來做，直接相關記為成本，
買機器設備來做，每年提列的折舊是成本。
生產線上員工的薪水也是成本。
費用則是間接相關，行銷費用、研發費用都是。

The second report referred to as the income statement records the company's sources of income. The sources of income come from both operating and non-operating businesses. Operating profit is calculated by subtracting costs and expenses from sales. In manufacturing, sales are recorded, while in service industries, revenue is recorded. Costs refer to expenses directly related to the product, while expenses are indirect expenses such as marketing and R&D expenses. For example, if a pen is sold for $10, the sales are recorded as $10. The cost of materials used in the production of the pen is recorded as a cost, while expenses such as the annual depreciation on machinery and equipment and the salaries of employees on the production line are also recorded as costs. Expenses are those that are indirectly related to the product and include costs such as marketing and R&D expenses.

業外收入包括利息收入、投資收入、處分利得、匯兌。
投資收入包括長投跟短投。
處分利得是賣土地和股票。

Non-operating income encompasses a variety of sources, including interest income, investment income, gains from disposals, and gains from foreign exchange. Investment income can come from both long-term and short-term investments. Disposal gains refer to the sale of assets such as land and stocks.

有幾個專有名詞跟大家再複習一下。
EPS每股盈餘，稅後淨利÷股數，公司最後總共賺了多少錢÷股數。
NAV為每股淨值，淨值÷股數，公司自己的錢÷股數。

There are a few important technical terms to discuss. EPS, or Earnings Per Share, is calculated by dividing net profit by the number of shares. Net profit is the bottom line shown on the income statement. Another term is NAV, which stands for Net Asset Value per Share and is calculated by dividing net assets by the number of shares.

用養鵝來比喻，EPS是鵝下的每一顆蛋，
蛋有大有小，大立光EPS180元是恐龍蛋，
聯電EPS零點幾元為螞蟻蛋。
NAV是鵝體重的大小，10公斤重的鵝或5公斤的鵝。

To use a goose-raising analogy, EPS can be compared to the eggs laid by a goose. Just as eggs come in different sizes, EPS can vary in size as well. For example, a company like Largan with an EPS of NT$180 can be compared to a goose laying a large dinosaur egg, while a company like UMC with only a few cents of EPS can be compared to a goose laying a small ant egg. On the other hand, NAV can be compared to the weight of the goose, with a 10 kg goose representing a higher NAV compared to a 5 kg goose.

看鵝會不會下蛋？非光看牠下了幾顆蛋，
10公斤重的鵝下3顆蛋跟5公斤重的鵝下了2顆蛋，
請問哪隻鵝會下蛋？
把蛋跟鵝一起拿來作比較，即EPS÷NAV = ROE，
ROE就是看這隻鵝會不會下蛋？看公司的獲利能力好不好？

When evaluating the productivity of a goose, it's not enough to just look at the number of eggs laid. For example, a 10 kg goose may lay 3 eggs, while a 5 kg goose may lay 2 eggs, but this doesn't necessarily mean the 10 kg goose is more productive. To determine productivity, it's important to compare the egg with the goose, that is, the EPS with the NAV, which is represented by the formula EPS ÷ NAV = ROE. ROE is used to evaluate the profitability of a company and determine which goose is more productive in terms of generating profits.



至於鵝有沒有買貴了？有2種評估方式。
買價跟蛋來作比較就是本益比，股價÷EPS，
花100元買鵝，這隻下了3顆蛋，
另一隻下2顆，哪隻比較便宜？

To determine if a goose is overpriced, there are two evaluation methods. One is to compare the price with the eggs, which is the price-earnings ratio, stock price ÷ EPS. For example, if you spend 100 dollars to buy a goose that lays 3 eggs, and another goose lays 2 eggs, which one is cheaper?

買價跟鵝來作比較為股價淨值比，股價÷NAV，
花100元買這隻鵝10公斤重，
另一隻5公斤，哪一隻便宜？

The comparison of the purchase price to the goose is the price-to-book ratio (PBR), stock price ÷ net asset value. If you spend $100 to buy a goose that weighs 10 kilograms, and another weighs 5 kilograms, which one is cheaper?

財報上數字的單位像營收和淨利，
通常指百萬元，百萬英文的縮寫是m，千是k，十億為b。
負數則用括弧來表示，(100) = -100

Financial reports often use units of one million for numbers such as sales and net profit. The abbreviation for one million is "m", for thousand is "k", and for one billion is "b". Negative numbers are indicated by parentheses, for example, (100) represents -100.

看財報會算成長率，成長率有三種：
年增率就是YOY(year on year)；
季增率QOQ(quarter on quarter)；
月增率MOM(month on month)。

In financial reports, we calculate growth rates. There are three types of growth rates:
YOY (year-over-year),
QOQ (quarter-over-quarter),
MOM (month-over-month).

YOY跟去年同期比較；
QOQ跟上一季比；
MOM跟上月比。

YOY compared with the same period last year;
QOQ compared with the previous quarter;
MOM compared with last month.

YOY     8 '06 / 8 '05
QOQ    3Q06 / 2Q06
MOM    8 '06 / 7 '06

成長率碰到負數無法計算
60 / -30 = 無
-60 / 30 = 無
-60 / -30 = 無
無=無法計算

Growth rate cannot be calculated if a negative number is encountered.
60 / -30 = na
-60 / 30 = na
-60 / -30 = na
na=not available

mikeon88

很多人問我巴菲特理論跟傳統基本面分析有何不同？
一言以蔽之，傳統基本面分析在估EPS，追成長股，
巴菲特則說要改看ROE才對！

People often ask me how Buffett's approach differs from traditional fundamental analysis. In essence, traditional fundamental analysis focuses on evaluating EPS and seeking out growth stocks, while Buffett emphasizes the importance of considering ROE instead.



選股為何看ROE？
因為維持住ROE，股價才會漲！

Why do stock pickers value ROE? Because as ROE is sustained, stock prices will increase!

股價 = EPS x PER，
影響本益比的因素很多，ROE是其中之一。
ROE上升本益比會跟著上升，
公司的獲利能力上升，股票可以賣得比較貴。

Stock price = EPS x PER
There are numerous factors that influence PER, and ROE is one of them. If the ROE rises, the PER will also increase. This means that the profitability of the company has improved, and its stock can be sold at a higher price.



問一個最根本的問題，請問股價為什麼會漲？
公司獲利成長，股價就會漲嗎？
不一定！
獲利成長若不能維持住ROE，股價仍然會跌。
相反地，即便獲利衰退，只要把ROE拉高，股價還是會漲。
維持住ROE，股價才會漲！

One of the most basic questions is why stock prices rise. While it is true that an increase in a company's profits can result in a rising stock price, it's not always the case. If profit growth cannot sustain a high ROE, the stock price may still fall. Conversely, even if profits decline, as long as the ROE improves, the stock price can still increase. In summary, maintaining a high ROE is crucial for a rising stock price.



宸鴻的營收成長，獲利上揚，EPS從20元上升48元，
可是ROE卻下降從89%降為35%，
結果股價慘跌。
選股看ROE就好，不必在意營收跟EPS。
指標要看對才有用，不是看越多越好。

TPK (3673.TW) saw an increase in sales and profits, leading to a rise in EPS from NT$20 to NT$48. However, the ROE dropped from 89% to 35%, causing a sharp decline in stock price. To select stocks, it's important to focus on the ROE, rather than just sales and EPS. Remember, indicators are only useful if they are accurate, and having more indicators is not necessarily better.





弘塑是另一例，獲利成長，卻不能維持住ROE，股價下跌。

Take Grand Process (3131.TW) for instance, despite its increasing profits, the inability to maintain a high ROE led to a drop in its share price.



相反地，即便獲利衰退，把ROE拉高，股價還是會漲。
晶華酒店淨利從2000年的8.98億元衰退到6億多，
把ROE拉高，股價還是漲。

On the other hand, even if profits decrease and ROE improves, stock prices can still rise. For example, Regent Hotel (2707.TW) saw a drop in its net profit from NT$898 million in 2000 to over NT$600 million, yet the stock price still increased due to the improvement in ROE.



可口可樂最近4年獲利持平，可是維持住ROE，股價仍然上漲。

Despite a lack of growth in profits over the past four years, Coca-Cola (KO) has still managed to see a rise in its share price by maintaining a high ROE.



3M獲利持平，ROE越來越高，股價一直漲。

Despite flat profits, MMM's rising ROE has resulted in an upward trend in its stock price.



選股不是看EPS，而是ROE才對。
投資人要求公司營收每月創新高，獲利每年成長，
這其實是不切實際的想法，
因為業績總是有好有壞，再怎麼好的公司獲利也會衰退。
我買中碳8年賺6倍，這8年之中獲利也曾經衰退過，
可是抱了8年照樣賺6倍。

Stock selection should not be based on EPS, but rather on ROE. Investors may expect a company's sales to continuously reach new monthly highs and for profits to increase year over year, but this is an unrealistic expectation as even the best performing companies will experience fluctuations and may have declining profits at times. For example, I bought shares in China Steel Chemical and earned a return of 6 times over 8 years, even though its profits decreased at certain points during that time. Nevertheless, by holding the stock for 8 years, I still realized a return of 6 times my investment.



在現實的世界公司獲利不可永遠無止境成長，
成長到最後總有它的極限，
獲利不成長就不行？當然不是。
請問各位同學的薪水有沒有每月創新高？
沒有，有無賺到錢？當然有，
所以哪裡需要獲利成長才能賺到錢。

In reality, a company's profits cannot continuously grow without limit. There are limits to growth. Does this mean that a lack of profit growth will result in the failure of a company? No, that's not necessarily the case. Do your salaries break new records every month? No, but you still earn a income. Therefore, profit growth is not a requirement for earning money.

開了這個巴菲特班才發現營收要每月創新高是很難的事，
現在都不敢要求營收創新高，只要能維持穩定就好。
本班每月新生報名人數至少有80個人，
只要維持80個人我就能勉強糊口。

After starting the Buffett class, I realized that reaching a new high in monthly sales is challenging. Now, I just aim to keep my sales stable, rather than breaking a new record. The class attracts at least 80 new students every month. So long as I maintain 80 new enrollees, I can barely make a living.

ROE是淨值長高的速度，
ROE 20%意指淨值每年以20%的速度在長高。
只要淨值以ROE的速度在長高，就會把股價拉上來。

ROE stands for the growth rate of net assets. A ROE of 20% indicates that the net assets increase by 20% annually. If the net assets grow at the rate of the ROE, it will drive up stock prices.



有人想兩全其美，把ROE與EPS兩派結合，
既是高ROE又是EPS成長，所謂的價值成長學派，
以為這樣績效會更好？
如此將適得其反，績效反而會最差，
2008年台積電40元時不敢買，因為當時獲利衰退。
2014年中碳200元時則跳下去，因那時獲利成長。

Someone wants to have the best of both worlds and combine the ROE and EPS factions. This is known as the value growth school, where both ROE and EPS growth are high. They believed that this would result in better performance, but the opposite happened. Investment performance was the worst. They hesitated to buy TSMC at a price of NT$40 in 2008 because its profits were declining. In 2014, they invested in China Steel Chemical at a price of NT$200, because its profits were rising at the time.

mikeon88

一講到價值投資即有人拿股價淨值比來選股，
股價低於淨值表示股價超跌，
這是認定淨值代表公司的價值，
是這樣嗎？並不是。

When it comes to value investing, someone selects stocks based on the price-to-book ratio (PBR). They consider a stock price below its net assets to indicate an undervalued stock, believing that the net assets represent the company's value. However, this is not necessarily accurate.

2013年大立光的股價1,000多元，當時每股淨值才186元，
為何股價高於淨值這麼多？
同時期國巨每股淨值16元，股價卻只有10元，
為何股價低於淨值？
這兩家股價為何如此懸殊？
因為一家是好公司，另一家是爛公司，
大立光ROE 28%，國巨ROE僅3％，
ROE比一年定存利率6.7%低表示公司的淨值沒有價值，
買它還不如去存定存比較快，
所以公司的價值不是淨值來決定，而是ROE。

In 2013, Largan's stock price was over NT$1,000, but its net assets value (NAV) was only NT$186, explaining the disparity between the two. Meanwhile, Yageo's NAV was NT$16 but its stock price was only NT$10. This difference in stock prices can be attributed to the quality of the companies. Largan had a ROE of 28%, while Yageo's was only 3%. If a company's ROE is lower than the 6.7% one-year time deposit rate, it suggests that its net assets are of little value. In such a case, it is better to save money than to invest in the stock. Therefore, a company's value is not determined by its net assets but by its ROE.



2008年金融風暴台塑股價沒跌破淨值，
台化卻跌破淨值，為什麼？
因為當年台塑ROE還有8%，
台化ROE只有2%，低於6.7%，股價跌破淨值。

During the 2008 financial crisis, Formosa Plastics (1301.TW) stock price stayed above its net assets value (NAV), while Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326.TW) fell below its NAV. The reason for this difference can be attributed to the ROE of the companies. Formosa had an ROE of 8%, while Taiwan Chemical had an ROE of only 2%, which was less than the 6.7% one-year time deposit rate. As a result, Taiwan Chemical's stock price fell below its NAV.

用股價淨值比小於 1 的方法來選股是錯的，
常會選到一些爛公司，
因公司爛，股價才低於淨值，不表示股價超跌。

Choosing a stock based on a price-to-book ratio (PBR) less than 1 is incorrect. This approach may lead to choosing poor quality companies. If a company is poor, its stock price may be lower than its net assets value (NAV), but this does not necessarily mean that the stock price is undervalued.

公司的價值是ROE來決定的，
成長和淨值只是其中兩個因素而已，
影響價值的因素還很多，像技術、管理能力、市場潛力、品牌知名度...都是。

The company's worth is calculated based on its ROE. Growth and net assets are merely two contributing elements. Many other factors also influence its value, such as technology, management competency, market opportunity, brand recognition, and others.

價值(ROE) = f (成長，淨值，技術，管理能力，市場潛力，品牌知名度，。。。）

Value(ROE) = f (growth, net assets, technology, management capabilities, market potential, brand name, ...)

很多法人老是喜歡把股票分為成長型和價值型兩大類，
這種二分法令我不解，因為成長跟價值不能一刀切，
它們互為影響。
中碳一般被歸類為價值型的股票，
即獲利不太成長，股價低估。
中碳的獲利沒成長嗎？有啊！
2003年中碳一年才賺5億元，後來最高賺了22億，
從5億成長到22億，
它是價值型還是成長型？都是吧！

Many institutional investors divide stocks into two groups: growth and value. This division confounds me, as growth and value are interconnected. China Steel Chemical is categorized as a value stock, indicating that its earnings haven't risen and its stock price is considered undervalued. Despite this, the company's profits have increased; in 2003, it earned NT$500 million, and later it made NT$2.2 billion. Is it value or growth type ? It is both value and growth.

法人對股票的一些講法我都不以為然。
買基金時理專總會問您是積極型投資人還是保守型？
每次被這樣一問，都讓我愣在那邊，反省了一下，
本人買股票不喜歡賠錢，所以是保守型的投資人，
可是又想要賺大錢，又是積極型，
其實每個人都像我這種類型，不喜歡賠錢又想要賺大錢，
我們是什麼型？「穩賺型」投資人。

I disagree with some of the statements made by institutional investors regarding stocks. When purchasing funds, financial advisors frequently ask whether you are a conservative or an active investor. This question frequently causes me confusion and contemplation. Despite my desire to avoid losses when investing in stocks, I consider myself to be a conservative investor. However, as I am also motivated to earn substantial profits, I am often viewed as an active investor. This seemingly conflicting approach is common among investors who seek to maximize returns while minimizing risks. We can be labeled as "must-win" investors.



理專還會告訴你，年紀大的人理財要保守一點，
年輕人則可以積極。這個說法我也難以苟同，
年紀大的人來日不多了還在保守幹什麼！
年輕人來日方長可以慢慢玩何必那麼急？
開玩笑喔，同學不要回去之後就把錢全部押進去。
不管是男女老幼對於理財所面對的問題都是一樣的，
即這一支股票到底現在可不可以買？
就是買之後了一年的報酬率有多少？
若有30%當然用力買，
若報酬率僅1％則在旁邊看。
不是積極保守的問題，而是預期報酬率的問題。

The advisor will also tell you that older people should adopt a more conservative approach to finance, while younger people can be more active. I also disagree with this statement. Why should older people, who have limited time left, be conservative? Young people, who have a long future ahead of them, can take it slow. Just joking, classmates, don't invest all your money when you get back. Whether men, women, the elderly, or children, we all face the same problem in finance, i.e. can I buy this stock now and what is the expected return after purchase? If the expected return is 30%, then it's definitely a good choice. If the expected return is only 1%, then wait and watch. This is not a question of being active or conservative, but a question of expected returns.

mikeon88

影響公司價值的因素還有很多，
資金成本，借錢成本比別人低，公司也會很有價值。
波克夏就是，A股現在股價是30萬美金，折合台幣900萬多元，
這是一股，不是一張，
買一張要90億台幣，
同學下單時別下買一張波克夏A，要90億元吶。
不過美股交易單位算股的，沒有張。
為何波克夏股價這麼高？
因巴菲特名聲特別響亮？不是，是因浮存金成本低。

There are numerous factors that influence a company's value, such as a low cost of capital, as is the case with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). The current stock price of BRK.A shares is $300,000, equivalent to over NT$9 million, but it's important to note that this is for one share, not one lot (1,000 shares). When placing an order, it's important not to confuse buying one lot of BRK.A shares with buying Taiwan stocks, as it would cost NT$9 billion. Unlike Taiwan stocks, US stock trading units do not have the concept of a lot. The high stock price of BRK.A is not due to Warren Buffett's reputation, but rather its low cost of float.

波克夏是一家投資公司，買了很多家保險公司，是個保險集團。
老巴說祂的保險公司好，好在浮存金成本比別人低，
保費收進來，還沒理賠之前，這些錢可以自由運用叫浮存金。
祂的保險公司浮存金成本只有 -3％，怎麼會 -3％？
保費收100元進來，理賠103元出去，浮存金成本3%，
它僅理賠97元，所以為 -3％，理賠少。
老巴的汽車險專門針對駕駛紀錄優良的客戶去拉保險，
承保巨災險，碰到天災地變才需理賠，平常不需要，
所以浮存金成本低。

Berkshire is an investment firm that owns several insurance companies and operates as an insurance group. According to Mr. Buffett, his insurance companies have a lower cost of float than other companies, which gives them a competitive advantage. The cost of float refers to the amount of money collected as premiums that can be used freely before claims are settled. In Berkshire's insurance companies, the cost of float is -3%, which means that they receive more money in claims than they collect in premiums. This occurs because they specialize in providing insurance to customers with good driving records and only underwrite catastrophe insurance, which requires compensation only during natural disasters and not on a regular basis. Thus, the low cost of float is a result of their underwriting strategy.



一般保險公司的浮存金成本大概在5-6%之間。
保險公司也會倒閉，翁大銘的國華人壽即因投資不善而倒閉。
國民黨的幸福人壽也因虧損累累而賣掉。
瑞士人壽在台灣開的瑞泰人壽，不堪虧損賣掉，
反正公司名稱叫瑞泰或泰瑞的都會倒閉。

The cost of float for most insurance companies is between 5-6%. Insurance companies may also go bankrupt, such as Kuohua Life owned by Weng Daming, who went bankrupt due to poor investment, or Singfor Life owned by the Kuomintang, which was sold due to heavy losses. Rueitai Life Insurance in Taiwan, owned by Swiss Life, was also sold at a loss. Regardless, companies named Rueitai or Tairuei are likely to go bankrupt.

浮存金等於散戶的融資，同樣借錢來買股票，
融資利率6%，亦即在還沒買之前巴菲特就贏9%。
祂的績效過去50年平均年複利19%，
這個紀錄前無古人而且後無來者，
因為我們沒有那麼低成本的浮存金。
有些小朋友在寫部落格立志績效一年要50%，
我看是卡早睏卡有眠！

Float is similar to financing for retail investors, who borrow money to purchase stocks. The financing rate is 6%, giving Warren Buffett a 9% advantage prior to buying. He has achieved an average annual compounded growth rate of 19% over the past 50 years, a remarkable achievement unlikely to be surpassed due to his low-cost float advantage. A student wrote in their blog about their aspirations for a 50% annual investment return, but they would be better off keeping that as a dream.

mikeon88

同學問，上了巴菲特班之後績效可以多少？
若一年有15%就很好，
15%聽起來不怎麼樣，長期下來將是可觀成果。
本班傑出校友鄧安鎮同學，接受今周刊訪問說，
自從上了我的課之後，10年下來年平均複利17%，
他原先只是年薪不到50萬元的小業務，
現在身價3千多萬，
本金500萬元，從500萬變成3千多萬。

A student asked about the potential performance improvement after taking the Buffett class. If a 15% return per year is considered good, then 15% may not sound impressive, but it will result in substantial gains in the long run. Outstanding alumnus Anzhen Deng, in an interview with Business Today magazine, said that since taking the class, his average compound return has been 17% annually over the past 10 years. He used to be a small salesman with an annual salary of less than NT$500,000, but his net worth has grown from NT$5 million to over NT$30 million, starting with a capital of NT$5 million.





以上幾位都是用我的方法賺到大錢的傑出校友。
同學以後賺到大錢，身價超過3千萬元台幣，
請寫一封伊媚兒給我，附上照片，就把它貼在這邊！

The above individuals are exceptional alumni who have made significant wealth using my method. Students in the future have the potential to accumulate wealth exceeding NT$30 million. If you are one such student, please send me an email with a photo attached, and I will post it here.

我的觀念很簡單，股價不是亂漲的，
沿著ROE所定義的價值線在上下擺動，要等便宜再買。

My approach is straightforward. Stock prices don't rise arbitrarily, they fluctuate along the value line defined by ROE. The key is to wait for a cheap price before making a purchase.



這堂課從頭到尾在講ROE這個觀念，為何ROE這麼重要呢？
因為高ROE+便宜買，報酬率就會最大！

This lecture will revolve around the concept of ROE. Why is ROE so important? Because the higher the ROE and the cheaper the purchase price, the greater the return on investment will be.

我來證明，買股票有兩種報酬，配息跟價差。
股息要最大即公司要高配息，
價差最大要買得低，賣得高。
要賣得高就是股價大漲，
前面已證明維持住ROE，股價才會漲。
股價要大漲呢？則要維持高ROE！
所以高配息+高ROE+便宜買，報酬率就會最大，賺到快速暴利。

I will demonstrate why this is true. When investing in stocks, there are two types of rewards - dividends and capital gains. The highest dividends come from the highest dividend payout ratio. The largest capital gains come from buying low and selling high. It has already been shown that maintaining a high ROE leads to an increase in stock prices. Therefore, a combination of high dividends, high return on equity, and purchasing at a cheap price will maximize return on investment and bring quicker profits.



這是非常重要的結論，告訴我們投資只要做好兩件事：
挑高ROE的股票，便宜買，報酬率就會最大，
最好選高配息的公司。

This is a crucial conclusion that highlights the two key things that one needs to do while investing:
Choose stocks with a high ROE, purchase them at a cheap price, and the return on investment will be maximum. It is preferable to select a company that offers a high dividend yield.

其他的因素就通通不要理它了，
技術面、外資買賣超、主力進出、籌碼面、政治面、選舉行情，
通通不用理它，因為不會影響投資報酬率。

All other factors can be disregarded: technical analysis, foreign investor and large player net trading, chip analysis, political issues, election rallies. Disregard them completely as they will have no impact on the final return on investment outcome.

買股票跟買東西是一樣的道理，都是要物美價廉，
什麼是物美的股票？就是高ROE。

Investing in stocks is similar to shopping.
The objective is to find the best value, just like looking for high-quality items at a good price.
What are the high-quality stocks? Those with a high Return on Equity (ROE).

mikeon88

講稿 5/21 還原股價
Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price

股票長期抱下來賺了多少錢怎麼算？
我在2003年35元買中碳，
一路抱到2007年股價83元，總報酬率多少？
是83/35-1？減 1 是扣掉本金，並不是！

How much profit was earned from long-term stock holdings? I purchased China Steel Chemical at NT$35 in 2003 and its price reached NT$83 in 2007. What is the total return? Is it calculated as (83/35) - 1, subtracting 1 to exclude the principal? No, this is not correct.



因為每年還有配股配息，加回去才是總共所賺的。
用現在股價把每年配股配息加回去就是還原股價，
再跟當年買的成本比較就是總共所賺的，
這是算報酬率最快的方法。

To calculate the total income from stocks, one must consider both dividends and stock splits received each year. The current stock price plus the annual dividends and stock splits forms the adjusted stock price. Comparing this adjusted price with the cost of purchasing the stocks in the past gives the total earnings. This is the most efficient method for calculating the rate of return.





我們買股票通常只記得哪一年買的，買在多少錢，
之後每年配了多少股票、股息都忘記了，
若臨時想算報酬率多少，最簡單的方法就用還原股價。
還原股價其實是除權除息的相反。
來複習何為除權除息？

When investing in stocks, people often only recall the year and the amount invested, but tend to forget the number of stocks and dividends received annually. To calculate the rate of return, the simplest approach is to adjust the stock price. This adjusted price takes into account the ex-dividend and ex-rights. Let's review what ex-dividends and ex-rights are.

除權除息之後股價會掉下來，
股價100元，配息2元，除息後股價是多少？
100 - 2 = 98。

The stock price will decrease after ex-dividends and ex-rights. If the stock price is NT$100 and the dividend is NT$2, what will the stock price be after ex-dividend?
100-2 = 98.

股價100元，配股2.5元，除權後股價多少？
配股2.5元指一股配2.5元股票，
股票面額10元，即每10元配2.5元股票，股票多了25%，
一張股票1,000股，除權之後變1,250股，
除權後股價是100/1.25 = 80。

The stock price is NT$100 and the stock dividend is NT$2.5. What will the stock price be after ex-rights? The allocation of NT$2.5 per share refers to a distribution of NT$2.5 per share. The stock denomination is NT$10, meaning that every NT$10 is allotted with NT$2.5 worth of stock, resulting in a 25% increase. After ex-rights, 1,000 shares of a stock will increase to 1,250 shares.
Stock price after ex-rights is 100/1.25 = 80.



請問為什麼要這樣算？
為何配息是用減的？配股用除的？
因為要維持股東財富在除權除息之前跟之後不變！
為何維持不變？
因為只是把賺的錢分配出來，財富不會因此而增加。

Why do we calculate it this way? Why subtract for cash dividends and divide for stock dividends? This is to maintain the shareholders' wealth unchanged before and after ex-dividends and ex-rights. Why keep it unchanged? Because dividends only represent the distribution of earnings and do not result in an increase in wealth.

除息前股數 1 股，股價100元，
除息之後分到2元股息，股數還是 1 股，股價P是多少？
1股 x 100 = 2息 + 1股 x P

Before ex-dividend, there was 1 share and the stock price was NT$100. After ex-dividend, a dividend of NT$2 was distributed, and the number of shares remained at 1. What is the new stock price (P)?
1 share x 100 = NT$2 dividend + 1 share x P

除權前 1 股，股價100元，
除權後變成1.25股，股價多少？
1股 x 100 = 1.25股 x P

Before ex-rights, there was 1 share and the stock price was NT$100. After ex-rights, the number of shares increased to 1.25. What is the new stock price (P)?
1 share x 100 = 1.25 shares x P



若同一天除權又除息，請問答案是？
1. (100-2)/1.25
2. 100/1.25 -2
答是 1.
因為除權除息前 1 股，股價100元，
除息後分到2元股息，除權股數變成1.25股，所以股價多少？
1股 x 100 = 2息 + 1.25股 x P

If ex-rights and ex-dividends are on the same day, what is the answer ?
1. (100-2)/1.25
2. 100/1.25 -2
The answer is 1.
Because 1 share before ex-dividend, stock price is NT$100,
After ex-dividend, a dividend of NT$2 is distributed, and number of ex-rights shares becomes 1.25 shares, so what is stock price P ?
1 share x 100 = 2 dividend + 1.25 shares x P

下一題，
除權前股東財富100元，配股2元後財富增加多少？
沒增加！股東財富不會因為除權除息而增加。

What is the change in shareholder wealth after a rights issue of NT$2 if it was originally NT$100 before ex-rights?
Answer: No change. Shareholder wealth will remain the same before and after the ex-rights and ex-dividends.

若財富未增加，請問為何要除權除息呢？不就沒意義嗎？
除權除息的目的在確認誰有資格來領取這些股利。
股票每天在市場上交易來交易去，
股票在誰手上公司也搞不清楚，股利發給誰？
所以得確定一天，即除權除息交易日，
抱超過這一天就有資格領股利。

If wealth has not increased, why do we have to ex-rights and ex-dividend? Isn't it meaningless?
The purpose of ex-rights and ex-dividends is to identify who is eligible to receive dividends. Since stocks are traded on the market every day, the company cannot always keep track of who owns the stock and who should receive the dividends. Therefore, a specific day, known as the ex-rights and ex-dividend trading day, is established. Only those who hold the stock on or before this day are eligible to receive the dividends.

至於股價上漲並非因除權息才漲的，
而是公司每天一點一滴在賺錢的過程中就在反應。
大立光股價漲到6千元，不是因除權息才漲的，
而是業績越來越好就在反應。

The increase in stock prices is not attributed to ex-dividends. Rather, stock prices are gradually reflected every day as a result of the company's financial performance. The rise in Largan's stock price to NT$6,000 is not due to ex-dividend, but rather it is a response to better performance of the company.

再來，
請問EPS10元，配息2元、股票股利2.5元之後
有多少錢留在公司裡？

One more question.
EPS NT$10, after ex-dividends of NT$2 and ex-rights of NT$2.5.
How much money is left in the company ?

除息是把保留盈餘配出來的意思。
除權則把保留盈餘變成股本，
在除權除息表可以看到兩個名詞盈轉跟資轉。
盈轉是盈餘公積轉增資，資轉為資本公積轉增資。
所謂轉增資就是轉成股本，
這只是會計科目的移轉，並沒有真的把錢配出來，
錢仍然在公司手上。
除息才真的有把錢配出來，所以8元留在公司。

Ex-dividend means distributing retained earnings, while ex-rights convert retained earnings into equity. In the ex-dividend table, you will see the terms earnings transfer and capital transfer. Earnings transfer refers to the transfer of retained earnings to capital increase, while capital transfer refers to the transfer of capital surplus to capital increase. This is just an accounting transfer and does not actually distribute the money, it remains in the possession of the company. Only ex-dividends actually distribute the money, so NT$8 remains in the company.



美股沒有除權，而是拆股，
1 股拆成2股寫成2：1，唸成two for one。
1：1是未拆。

Stock divide is referred to as a split in the US stock market. A 2:1 split means that one share is divided into two shares. On the other hand, a 1:1 split indicates that there is no division of shares.

為何要拆股？
股價太高沒人買得起，流通性差，本益比會低。
身為股東都希望股票的本益比越高越好，
此時公司即會拆股。
蘋果電腦股價漲到700多元時 1 股拆成7股，
股價掉到100元，股價比較會漲。

Why is stock splitting done? When a stock's price is too high and becomes unaffordable, leading to poor liquidity and low price-to-earnings ratio (PER), the company may choose to split its shares. Shareholders generally prefer a higher PER for their stocks. For example, when Apple's stock price rose above $700, a 1:7 split was done. This helps to increase the relative stock price if it drops to $100.

mikeon88

請問除息之後本益比將上升或下降？
除權之後本益比上升或下降？

Will the PER increase or decrease after the ex-dividend date?
What will be the change in the PER after the ex-rights date?



本益比 = 股價÷EPS，除息股價要減2元，
EPS呢？不用減2元，因為是不一樣的錢，
EPS是今年預估要賺的錢，
股息則是去年賺的錢今年配出來，
兩者是不同的錢，
所以除息EPS不必減2元，本益比會下降！

PER = stock price ÷ EPS
After the ex-dividend date, the stock price will decrease by NT$2. However, the EPS will not be affected by this decrease as it represents the estimated profit for the current year, whereas the dividend represents the profit earned from the previous year that is being distributed in the current year. These are two different types of money. Therefore, the EPS will not need to be reduced by NT$2 and the PER will decrease.

除權之後股價÷1.25，EPS÷1.25呢？
要！因為股數增加，所以除權之後本益比不變。

Stock price ÷ 1.25 after ex-rights, and what about is EPS ÷ 1.25 ?
Yes! Due to an increase in the number of shares, the PER will remain unchanged after the ex-rights date.

除息之後本益比會下降，正因如此
每年在5-6月除權息旺季時市場流行高現金殖利率股。

After the payment of dividends, the PER will decrease. This is the main reason why stocks with high cash dividends are highly sought after in the market during the ex-dividend season, which occurs from May to June each year.



現金殖利率即股息÷股價，
高現金殖利率表示股息配得多或股價低。
我在2008年24元買大統益，
因為它之前股息至少配2.4元，現金殖利率10% ，
10%是非常高，殖利率有4%就算高。
當時正值金融風暴，大統益做沙拉油的，
想再怎麼不景氣總是要吃吧。
2008年買抱到現在，大統益給我年複利22%，相當不錯。

Cash yield is dividend ÷ stock price.
A high cash yield means a higher dividend or a lower stock price. I purchased TTET Union at a price of NT$24 in 2008 because of its dividend of at least NT$2.4 and a cash yield of 10%, which was significantly higher than the market's expected yield of 4%. TTET Union was in the business of producing salad oil, which is a staple food item that is consumed regardless of economic conditions. Since purchasing TTET Union in 2008, I have received a 22% annual compound return, which has been a great investment.

像大統益這種不受景氣影響，
賺了錢大半配息的股票稱為定存股。
超商和電信股也是。

Similar to TTET Union, stocks that are not affected by economic downturns and pay high dividends are commonly referred to as "defensive stocks." Examples of these types of stocks include supermarkets and telecommunications companies. These are often referred to as "fixed deposit stocks" stocks, as they provide a consistent source of income through their dividends.

定存股有明確定義，獲利不受景氣影響而且配息率高的才是。
有些人把原料股、散裝輪等景氣循環股都當成定存股，
實在不求甚解。

Fixed deposit stocks have a clear definition: they must be profitable without being impacted by economic conditions and have a high dividend payout ratio. Some individuals may consider cyclical stocks such as raw materials and shipping stocks to be fixed deposit stocks, but this is a misunderstanding as these types of stocks are often impacted by economic cycles. It is important to have a thorough understanding of these investments before making a decision.

問題6：配股跟配息哪一種對股東比較好？

現在大家認為配息較好，因被我洗腦過了，早年台股喜歡配股。
配息配股何者較好答案不一定，看能否維持高ROE而定。
若保證可以維持高ROE，應該配股，
這麼會賺錢就不用把現金配出來，
繼續幫我們賺錢，複利效果才高。

Question 6: Which is better for shareholders, stock dividends or cash dividends?

It depends on the company's ability to maintain a high ROE (return on equity). If the company can maintain a high return on equity, it may be better to distribute stock dividends instead of cash dividends. This way, the company can continue to help its shareholders make money, and the compound interest effect will be high.

若無法維持高ROE則當把現金配出來，
讓股東再去找其它投資標的。

If the company is unable to maintain a high ROE, it is recommended to pay dividends so that shareholders can explore other investment opportunities.

一直都配不出現金的公司不容易長期維持高ROE，
因淨值越吃越胖，除非能一直成長，但成長有其極限。

A company that can't pay cash dividends will have difficulty maintaining a high ROE in the long run. The net worth will get bigger as it eats more, unless it can keep growing, but growth has its limits.

問題7是現金增資之後股價怎麼算，
問題8是減資，
問題9是買回庫藏股，
這3個問題原理都一樣，之前跟之後股東財富不變，
請自行回去研究。

Question 7 deals with the calculation of stock price after a rights issue.
Question 8 is about the return of capital.
Question 9 involves the purchase of treasury stocks.
These three questions share the same underlying principle, which is that the wealth of shareholders remains unchanged before and after.
Please research on your own.

問7：股價100元，現增溢價80元，新股10%，
現增後股價為何 ?
答：1 x 100 + 0.1 x 80 = 1.1 x P

Question 7: Stock price is NT$100, rights issue premium is NT$80, and the proportion of new shares is 10%.
What is stock price P after price increase ?
Answer: 1 x 100 + 0.1 x 80 = 1.1 x P

問8：晶華減資72%後股價如何計算 ?
答：減資前1股 x 減資前股價108元 =
退還股本7.2元 + 減資後只剩0.28股 x 減資後股價362元

Question 8: How will the share price of Regeant Hotel be calculated after a 72% return of capital?
Answer: 1 share prior to return of capital x stock price before return of capital at NT$108 = returned capital of NT$7.2 + 0.28 remaining shares after return of capital x stock price after return of capital at NT$362.

問9：買回庫藏股前股價100元，註銷後股價為何 ?
答：註銷後後仍是100元，1股 x 100 = 1股 x 100

Question 9: What is the stock price after cancellation, when the stock price was NT$100 before the repurchase?
Answer: The stock price remains at NT$100 after cancellation, as 1 share x 100 = 1 share x 100.

問題10是要不要參加除權除息？

Question 10 Is it worth participating in ex-dividend ?

每年在5-6月除權除息旺季都有同學在問，
我認為可以參加，因為稅沒想像中的重。
假設買的股票現金殖利率6%，
所得稅率20%，僅需繳1.2%的税。
即便再把健保補充費把加上去，
健保補充費課股息2%，
6%x2% = 0.12%，比手續費0.1425%還少。
合計繳稅不到1.4%，比基金管理費2-3%低。

During the ex-dividend season from May to June, students frequently raise the question of whether participation is worthwhile. The tax burden is not as significant as it may appear. With a 6% cash yield on the purchased stock and a 20% income tax rate, only a 1.2% tax is required. The addition of a 2% dividend for health insurance supplementary premium brings the total tax amount to less than 1.4%, which is lower than the typical 2-3% fund management fee. The 6% multiplied by 2% equates to 0.12%, a figure that is less than the 0.1425% commission.

股票長期抱下來有沒有賺到錢不要光去看K線圖，
因很容易被誤導。
這是鴻海的K線圖，2000年股價達到最高375元，
之後一路跌到2006年204元，
買在最高點的人一定以為賠錢，可是並非如此，
把204元還原回去是622.4元，仍然賺很多錢！
有沒有賺錢不要光看K線圖，看還原股價才是。

Can you earn a profit by holding stocks for the long term? Don't solely depend on the candlestick chart, as it can be misleading. For example, examine Hon Hai's chart. In 2000, its stock price reached its highest point at NT$375, but later dropped to NT$204 in 2006. Although it might seem like a loss, the adjusted price of NT$204 is actually NT$622.4, resulting in substantial gains. To accurately evaluate your profits, examine the adjusted stock price instead of relying solely on the candlestick chart.



同學拿到盈再表時可以做驗證，看我講的話對不對？
我的主張很簡單，就是高ROE，股價便宜去買，
長期抱下來，保證可以賺到錢。
這個主張光聽我講：
我2001年買億豐窗簾，抱到2007年被外資併購賺了3倍。
2002年買國碁，被鴻海併購，抱到了2010年150元賣掉賺3倍。
2003年買中碳8年賺6倍。
2008年買台積電、大統益、巨大，8年賺4倍。
2011年買和泰車、2012年買美利達都一年賺2倍。
2011年買茂順2年賺 1 倍。
2013年買GD、標準普爾(MHFI)、UNH 2年賺 1 倍。
底下這張圖即我的漲倍圖

When you download the On's table, please verify that my information is correct. My strategy is straightforward: a high ROE, cheap prices, and long-term holding can secure profits.
As proof, I bought Nienmade (8464.TW) in 2001 and held it until it was acquired by foreign investors in 2007, resulting in a 3x profit.
In 2002, I bought Ambit Microsystems (2386.TW) and held it until its acquisition by Hon Hai in 2010, yielding another 3x profit.
In 2003, I invested in China Steel Chemical and made 6x over 8 years.
In 2008, I bought shares in TSMC, TTET Union, and Giant (9921.TW), earning 4x over 8 years.
I acquired Hotai Motor (2207.TW) in 2011 and Merid (9914.TW) in 2012, resulting in a 2x profit.
In 2011, I bought NAK (9942.TW) and made 1x in two years.
In 2013, I invested in General Dynamics (GD), Standard & Poor's (MHFI), and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) within two years, earning 1x.
The graph below shows my multibaggers.



光聽我說，買什麼幾年賺幾倍，可能是我在吹牛，
同學務必自己驗證看看：
盈再表的右邊有一張歷史股價表，上頭有年複利，
買在8年前最低價抱到現在，年平均複利是多少。

Just listen to what I have bought in the past few years and earning several times the money may seem like bragging. It's important to verify it for yourself. On's table on the right displays a historical stock price table with annual compound return. What is the average annual compound return, purchased at the lowest price, from 8 years ago to the present?

大統益買在2009年最低價23.8元抱到現在8年平均複利22%，
大統益平常不被注意的股票，年複利竟然高達22%。

I purchased TTET Union at its lowest price of NT$23.8 in 2009 and have achieved an average compound return of 22% over the past 8 years. Often overlooked stocks can deliver annual returns as high as 22%.



波克夏也一樣，
買在第一年2009年最低價抱到現在8年平均複利17%。

The same holds true for Berkshire. If you bought at the lowest price in 2009, and the average return has remained at 17% over the past 8 years.



看歷史股價，大家應會得出同樣結論，
只要高ROE，股價便宜買，長期抱下來，一定可以賺到大錢。
如果選高ROE的股票，在便宜時進去買，
結果卻沒有賺到錢，問題出在哪裡？
抱得不夠久！
我們當分析師很會推卸責任，
如果買我推薦的股票沒賺到錢，不是我的問題喔，
而是抱得不夠久。

Examining historical stock prices, it becomes evident that a combination of high ROE, cheap stock prices, and a prolonged holding period can lead to substantial profits. If no money was made despite choosing high ROE stocks and purchasing them at a low price, the problem likely lies in a short holding duration. As analysts, we tend to deflect responsibility, but if you don't make money from the stocks I recommend, it is not my fault. The crucial factor is the length of the holding period.



回顧還原股價是我學巴菲特的開始，
為何從一個外資電子股分析師轉過頭來學巴菲特？
以前常常把買過的股票還原股價拿出來算，
那些股票當時都自以為每個波段都做得很漂亮，
可是看到還原股價都搥心肝，
後悔倒不如從頭抱到尾還賺更多。
如何才能從頭抱到尾？
是一門大學問啊！

Reflecting on adjusted stock prices marked the beginning of my learning about Buffett. I was inspired to learn about Buffett from an electronics analyst at a foreign securities company. I used to regularly calculate the adjusted stock prices of the stocks I purchased and was confident in my market timing skills. However, now, upon reviewing those adjusted stock prices, I feel remorseful. I have come to understand that it would have been more advantageous to hold onto the stocks from start to finish for greater returns. The challenge remains, how can I maintain a long-term hold on my stocks? This is a significant challenge.

我推薦買台積電，同學都說這沒什麼學問啊，
全台灣的人都知道它好，
可是從頭抱到尾才能賺到大錢，
我2008年43元買抱到240元就是一門大學問。

I recommend purchasing TSMC. My students say it's not a big deal and everyone in Taiwan knows it's a good company. However, you need to hold onto TSMC for a long time to make substantial profits. I bought it at 43 TWD in 2008 and held onto it until it reached 240 TWD, that's the real challenge.

同學對我的方法產生質疑時，
請去看一下歷史股價那張表，
保證這絕對是真理。

When you question my approach, please review historical stock prices. I can assure you that this is a proven fact.

mikeon88

講稿 6/21 高ROE
Lecture 6/21 High ROE

投資主要在做兩件事：選高ROE的股票，等便宜時買。
第一件事挑高ROE的股票，即如何選股？
最簡單的方法就是看財報，
有人說財報是過去的事，股價不會反映過去，
而是反映未來。
的確，可是如何預知未來？
最可靠的方法還是看財報。
我們都知道台積電是一家好公司，U電則是爛公司，
兩家公司過去的紀錄越差越遠。
未來誰的表現會比較好？當然是台積電，
從過去的紀錄可以預知未來。

Two crucial steps for investing: choose stocks with a high ROE and then buy them when the price is cheap. The simplest way to select stocks is by analyzing financial reports. Despite the claims that financial reports are outdated and do not provide an accurate picture of future stock performance, reviewing financial reports remains the most trustworthy method for predicting future stock performance. For instance, TSMC is recognized as a strong company while "U company" is considered weak. The gap between their past performance is expanding, making it likely that TSMC will continue to perform better in the future, as we can make predictions based on historical records.



關於選股，有人強調去拜訪公司，做實地調查。
我在當分析師時就常常在拜訪公司，而且都帶老外去拜訪，
上市公司的多高層都見過。
台積電上市前一個月張忠謀第一次接受獨家專訪
就是我和道瓊社記者二人去專訪的。

When it comes to choosing stocks, some stress the importance of visiting the company and conducting in-person evaluations. During my time as an analyst, I regularly visited companies and accompanied foreign visitors on tours. I conducted numerous interviews with senior managers of publicly traded companies. One notable instance was when I teamed up with a reporter from Dow Jones & Company to secure the first comprehensive interview with Morris Chang, a month prior to TSMC's initial public offering.

拜訪公司最大的盲點是公司都是報喜不報憂。
新光吳東進為何在1,000元買宏達電？
一定跟王雪紅交情特別好，
買之前應該問過，她永遠都很有信心。

A key disadvantage of visiting a company is that it may only showcase favorable information and hide negative information.
Why did Dongjing Wu, CEO of Shin Kong Life, buy HTC at a high cost of NT$1,000?
It could be due to his strong relationship with HTC CEO, Cher Wang.
He may have spoken with her before making the purchase, as she consistently showed confidence in her company.

選股有點像我們今天在座有100多位同學，互不認識，
要挑出誰是唸台大的，怎麼挑？
拜訪公司等於一個一個問，
請問這位同學「高中有沒有認真唸書？」
同學一定說有！可是看起來不太像。
「那位同學高中數學成績好不好？」
同學回「我數學最強了，理化還冠軍」，
可是無從查證。
這樣能不能找出考上台大的同學呢？
很難！

Identifying the students who attend National Taiwan University (NTU) among a group of over 100 unknown individuals is similar to selecting stocks. How can one determine which students attend NTU? Visiting the company is like asking each individual questions, such as "Did you study hard in high school?" If the individual answers yes, but does not appear to be a diligent student, it may not be a reliable indicator. Asking another student, "Did you perform well in high school math?" and if they reply "I excelled in mathematics and even won championships in physics and chemistry," it is still difficult to verify their claims. Determining which individuals are admitted to NTU is challenging.



最簡單的方法即請每個人把高中成績單來拿出來看，
若唸的是明星學校建中、北一女，成績又是前10名，
考上台大機率就比較高。
選股也是同樣意思，過去維持過高ROE紀錄，
未來仍然會維持高ROE的比例較高。

The simplest method is to request that each individual show their high school transcripts. If someone studied at a highly ranked school like Taipei Municipal Jianguo High School or Taipei First Girls High School and was in the top 10, their chances of being admitted to NTU are higher. Stock selection operates similarly; if a company maintains a high ROE record, there is a higher likelihood of continued high ROE in the future.

有人說，很多公司財報是假的，
的確，不只台股，美股、港股、中股都一堆假財報，
身為投資人要有本事把假財報看出來。
同學說「我沒有學過會計，我的會計是今天才學的。」
沒關係，這堂課專門教完全不懂會計的人
如何一眼去看出哪些是假的財報。

Some people say that many company financial reports are fake.
This is indeed true, not only for Taiwanese stocks but also for stocks in the US, Hong Kong, and China.
As an investor, you need to be able to identify false financial reports.
A student said, "I have never studied accounting before, I only learned about it today."
That's okay, this course is specifically designed to teach those who have no understanding of accounting how to easily identify fake financial reports.

財報分為年報和季報，
一般會計年度，年報12月底截止，
季報第一季3月底截止，第二季6月底，第三季9月底。
截止後公告財報，年報是3個月，3月底之前要公告。
季報一個半月，5月15號、8月15號、11月15號之前要公告。
公告之後盈再表會抓最新財報，
因為盈再表抓自券商的資料庫，到時候會更新。

Financial reports consist of annual and quarterly reports. The general accounting year ends on December 31st for the annual report and on March 31st, June 30th, and September 30th for the quarterly report, respectively. Financial reports are announced after the deadline. The annual report has a three-month deadline and must be announced before the end of March. The quarterly report has a one and a half month deadline and must be announced before May 15th, August 15th, and November 15th. After the announcement, On’s Table will retrieve the latest financial report from the broker’s database, which will be updated at that time.



同學剛拿到盈再表時別太興奮一直猛按，
一位新生從11按到99，問他按了多久？
他說按了2天，熬夜按了2天，
鼓勵他美股再去按按看。
不需要這樣一直按，怎麼選股？
可以參考本班的入圍名單和討論區同學的推薦。

Don't get too excited when you first receive On's table.
A freshman told me that when he first received On's table, he kept checking it from stock code 11 to 99. I asked him how long he looked up.
He said he stayed up all night for two days. I encouraged him to continue to check US stocks.
You don't have to keep clicking like this. How do you choose stocks?
You can refer to the class watchlist and classmates' suggestions in the discussion forum.

在討論區有同學們分享的持股，
本班是最國際化的投資社團，我們實際在投資全世界。
同學們，來投資全世界吧！
現在是網路時代，投資全世界很簡單，
只要開個美股帳戶就可以買到全世界股票，
世界最好的公司都到美國發行ADR，台積電即有ADR。
我只開了兩個戶頭台股和美股，
手上買了14個國的股票，台、美、日　港、中、星、英、德、
荷、瑞士、澳洲、巴西、加拿大、挪威。

In the discussion forum, students are sharing their stock holdings. Our class is the most international investment club; we are actually investing globally.
Friends, let's come together and invest globally! In the internet age, it's easy to invest globally. All you need is a US stock account and you can purchase stocks from all over the world. The world's top companies issue American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in the US market, for instance, TSMC has an ADR. I only opened two accounts, one in Taiwan and one in the US, and I have invested in stocks from 14 countries through the US market, including the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Norway.

投資美股的好處之一是可以規避匯率風險。
除了一半台幣一半美金可避掉風險，
百分之百美金投資到各國ADR也能分散匯率風險。
像我買到10幾國ADR，
10幾國貨幣升貶反映在ADR股價上，
匯率風險就分散掉了。
ADR股價＝原股股價＋匯差

One of the advantages of investing in U.S. stocks is that you can minimize exchange rate risk. In addition to splitting your investment between Taiwanese dollars and U.S. dollars to reduce risk, investing 100% in American Depository Receipts (ADRs) from various countries can also diversify exchange rate risk. For example, I own ADRs from over 10 countries, which means the fluctuations of more than 10 currencies are reflected in the ADR's share price, thereby diversifying the exchange rate risk. The share price of an ADR equals the original share price plus the exchange rate difference.

這幾年貨幣貶值很可怕，
俄國盧布、巴西里耳，甚至英鎊都貶值5成以上，
一輩子努力的成果一夕之間少掉一半，
有必要把匯率風險避掉。

In recent years, currency depreciation has been severe, with the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and even the British pound depreciating by over 50%. The hard-earned wealth of a lifetime can be wiped out in just one night. It's crucial to minimize exchange rate risk.



投資美股不用懂英文，只要會看盈再表就好，
因各國盈再表長得都一樣。
美國公司我們還比較熟，可口可樂、麥當勞都喝過都吃過，
可是中碳喝過嗎？一定沒有！

You don't need to be fluent in English to invest in US stocks, as long as you can interpret the numbers presented on On's table. The format of this information is the same across all global markets. We are more familiar with American companies. We drank Coca-Cola and ate McDonald's.
But, do you drink Chain Steel Chemical ? Of course not !

投資美股眼界將大開，談論的都是世界級的公司。
當賓士汽車的股東比較好呢還是裕隆汽車？

Investing in the US stock market offers broad prospects and the opportunity to understand world-class companies. Which is a better investment: Benz or Yulon Motors (2201.tw)?

若覺得前途茫茫，投資美股是一條最立即可行的出路，
在各國股市都能賺到錢的話就不會被困在一隅，
從此自由自在。

If you feel uncertain about the future, investing in US stocks is the most immediate and feasible way out. If you can make money in stock markets of different countries, you won't be trapped in one place. From then on, you will be free and at ease.

mikeon88

建議同學每天至少撥一點時間上討論區，因為非常精彩，
本班同學來自各行各業，臥虎藏龍，
大家都上過同樣的課，語言相通能進行深入討論。
巴菲特班從投資台股起，到征戰全世界股市，
全是同學群策群力，樂於分享的結果。

I recommend spending daily time on discussion forums, where you can gain valuable knowledge from a diverse group of students with various majors and experiences. By relying on the wisdom of respected figures like Mr. Buffett, we can engage in meaningful and comprehensive discussions about investing, ranging from Taiwan stocks to global markets. This achievement is a testament to the power of teamwork and the sharing of information.

學投資除了上課聽講之外，
平常實際操作的過程中必有很多疑惑產生，
跟同好討論是很重要的方法，
把問題提出來才知道聽懂多少。

In addition to attending classes to learn about investing, there will be many doubts that arise during actual practical operations. Discussions with like-minded individuals are an important method, as it's only by raising questions that I can determine how much you have understood.

AlexWu桑幫我們開發出網頁版盈再表，
可抓台美日港中英澳等國盈再表，

Alex Wu helped us develop the web version of the On's table, which can collect financial statements from Taiwan, the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, China, United Kingdom, Australia and other countries.

https://stocks.ddns.net/App/Watchlist.aspx



我的選股步驟如下，
從預期報酬率大於12%以上股票中
挑選常利大於5億元以及自己3秒即懂的股票列為入圍名單

My process for selecting stocks is as follows: I look for stocks with an expected return rate of over 12%, and among those, I choose stocks with a recurring net profit of more than $500 million and stocks that I can understand within 3 seconds. These selected stocks are then added to my watch list.



我把完整名單(持股跟觀察名單)分類存在網頁盈再表
蘋果手機內建的Stocks只存持股名單，用來看盤
用這兩個軟體就夠了
每天吃早餐時會把持股的新聞看一遍
網頁盈再表右側有個股新聞

I categorize and save the complete list (holdings and watchlist) in the web version of the On's table.
The built-in Stocks app on the iPhone only stores the holdings list and is used for market monitoring.
These two apps are enough for me.
Every morning during breakfast, I go through the news related to my holdings.
On the right side of the On's table, there are individual stock news updates.





我平常只用手機瀏覽財經新聞，
主要來源包括
經濟日報
工商時報
聚亨網
Finviz
Threads
X

I usually read financial news only on my phone,
and my main sources include:
Economic Daily News
Commercial Times
cnyes.com
Finviz
Threads
X (formerly Twitter)





我不看理財雜誌、網紅評論或研究報告，
只相信自己的投資方法。

台灣的財經媒體和雜誌，
經常找外行人扮成專家，不但觀念錯誤，九成績效造假。

我也不看網紅部落格或討論區，
大多是不懂的人在問不懂的，不懂的人在教不懂的，
毫無參考價值，實在沒意思。

基本上，我只靠一支手機投資全球，目前淨值已超過七千萬元台幣。

I don’t read financial magazines, influencer opinions, or research reports.
I only trust my own methods.

Taiwan’s financial media and magazines often feature unqualified people posing as experts, spreading misguided ideas, and 90% of their claimed performance results are fabricated.

I also don’t follow influencer blogs or online forums.
It’s mostly people who don’t understand asking questions to others who don’t understand—people who don’t know teaching others who don’t know.
It’s completely meaningless.

Basically, I rely solely on a smartphone to invest globally, and my net worth exceeds NT$70 million.

mikeon88

如何找到高ROE的股票？
第一步觀察過去5年ROE的趨勢。
過去5年ROE能保持一致、一致向上，
或景氣循環股平均大於15%以上，
這三種類型ROE才是我們有興趣的。

ROE忽高忽低和由高往下，不為我們喜歡。

How to find stocks with high ROE?
The first step is to observe the ROE trend over the past 5 years. We are interested in stocks with a consistent or upward trend in ROE over the past 5 years, or those with an average ROE above 15% for cyclical stocks.

We are not interested in stocks with fluctuating ROE or a downward trend.



ROE的重點在穩定而非多高，
中華電的ROE其實不高，只有11%，
可是很穩定，這種股票可不可以買？
當然可以，股價便宜了就可以買。

The emphasis when assessing ROE should be on stability, not on the level of ROE. For instance, Chunghwa Telecom (2412.TW) may have a relatively low ROE of 11%, but it demonstrates consistent stability. If the stock price is cheap, this may be a good investment opportunity.



為什麼維持高ROE這麼重要？
因長期維持高ROE才有複利效果，忽高忽低則無。
底下2個式子，第一式億豐窗簾的ROE，每年都30幾%，
二式為友達的ROE忽高忽低，時而賺錢，時而虧損，
2式乘到最後越差越遠。

1.34 x 1.33 x 1.31 x 1.33 x 1.41 x 1.32 = 5.7793 (億豐)
1.05 x 1.08 x 0.71 x 1.14 x 1.20 x 1.30 = 1.4319 (友達)
...ROE 1999-2004

Maintaining a high ROE is crucial because it allows for the compound interest effect to be realized over a long period of time. High ROE stability is preferable to high volatility. For example, a company with an ROE of 30% per year (like Nienmade) is better than one like AUO (2409.TW) whose ROE fluctuates and leads to inconsistent profits. Over time, the latter type of ROE is likely to result in worse outcomes.

1.34 x 1.33 x 1.31 x 1.33 x 1.41 x 1.32 = 5.7793 (Nienmade)
1.05 x 1.08 x 0.71 x 1.14 x 1.20 x 1.30 = 1.4319 (AUO)
...ROE 1999-2004

看這2條式子請問會買哪一家？
連三歲小孩都知要買億豐，
可是市場上大部份人卻在追友達。

When comparing these two formulas, which would you choose to invest in? A three-year-old child would likely choose Nienmade, but most investors opt for AUO.



複利效果是賺大錢最快的方法，
要賺大錢必須靠兩個效果，複利效果跟倍數效果，
本益比買低賣高或融資是倍數效果，
要有倍數效果之前更重要的是找到一個能夠有複利效果的東西，
就股票而言高ROE為複利。
股息是單利，存回去才有複利，
等股價便宜時存回去複利效果才會大。
這是賺大錢最快的方法，巴菲特的方法是賺大錢最快的方法，
有人瞧不上巴菲特，認為賺錢速度太慢，
殊不知巴菲特是世界十大首富，靠投資致富第一人，
當然是祂的績效比其它方法都好非常多。

The compound interest effect is the quickest method to earn significant amounts of money. To achieve this, one must utilize two effects: compound interest and multiple effects. The PER buying low and selling high, or leveraging finance are examples of multiple effects. However, finding something with a compound interest effect is more important before utilizing multiple effects. In the stock market, a high ROE provides compound interest. Dividends offer simple interest, but compounding only occurs when re-invested. When stock prices are cheap, the compounding effect will be greater. This is the quickest way to make big money, and Warren Buffett's method is the fastest method. Despite some people perceiving Warren Buffett as having a slow rate of making money, he is actually one of the top ten richest people in the world and the foremost individual to attain wealth through investing. His performance is significantly superior to other methods.



而且這是最可靠的複利效果，重點在「可靠」這兩個字。
中碳可以維持高ROE可不可靠？
有人說一家公司不可靠，
沒關係，就多買幾家，
把台積電、台達電、台塑、巨大等
能維持高ROE的股票一支一支買進來。
台股買不夠再買美股，可口可樂、3M、美國運通...等
股價便宜時通通買進來，
這樣就是能維持高ROE的投資組合，十分可靠了。

The most dependable form of compound interest is achieved by focusing on a high ROE. Is it trustworthy that China Steel Chemical can maintain a high ROE? Some argue that relying solely on one company is not dependable. But buying a few more companies, such as TSMC, Delta, Formosa Plastics, Giant, etc., that have a consistent high ROE will diversify the portfolio and increase reliability. If investing only in Taiwanese stocks is not enough, adding stocks from US companies such as Coca-Cola, 3M, American Express, etc., can also enhance the portfolio's reliability. By purchasing stocks when their prices are cheap, a reliable investment portfolio with a high ROE can be established.



這還是可以複製的方法，
巴菲特這樣做賺到大錢，
我們學著做也可以賺到大錢，
傳給孩子，他們一樣可以賺到大錢。
不過要傳給孩子之前記得還是要帶來上課，
自己不要亂教，帶來上課才能得到真傳。

This strategy is replicable. Buffett became wealthy by using this method, and we can do the same by following in his footsteps. We can then pass it on to our children and they too can attain wealth. However, before passing it on to them, it's important to ensure they receive proper education. Enrolling them in classes and avoiding inaccurate teachings is key to ensure that they receive the correct knowledge.

有人說波段操作不是賺得更快嗎？
這邊買，那邊賣，賺得更快，理論上完全正確，
可是古往今來沒有人做到過。
富比士的十大首富都是因為股票而有錢，
而且都是因股票長期持有而有錢，
從來沒有人因波段操作而成為首富。

Some people say that swing trading isn't a faster way to make money, buying here and selling there, it's theoretically correct but no one has ever done it. The top ten richest people in Forbes are wealthy because of stocks and they are wealthy because they held stocks long-term, no one has ever become a billionaire through swing trading.

台股也一樣，過去30年漲最多的股票是哪一支？
鴻海！1991年上市承銷價44.9元買
抱到現在2017年122元，
總共27年漲了436倍。
鴻海我們都買過，都波段操作，想必賺更多，
請問同學過去到現在買股票賺超過436倍的舉手？
無人！賺過超過436倍不會坐在這邊。

The same goes for Taiwan stocks. What was the stock that rose the most in the past 30 years? Hon Hai! Bought at an underwriting price of NT$44.9 in 1991, maintained at NT$122 in 2017, a total of 27 years has increased by 436 times. We all bought Hon Hai and swing traded, so we expected to make more. Can anyone here raise their hand if they made more than 436 times profit from buying stocks in the past to present? No one! Those who made more than 436 times profit wouldn't be sitting here.

鴻海是我進證券業碰到的第一家新上市股，
我是電子股分析師。
鴻海剛上市時舉辦法人說明會，
曾搭公司提供的巴士去土城看它的工廠，
從那時就知道鴻海是一家好公司，只是不曉得會這麼好而已，
當時若回去賣祖產來買鴻海，現在就不用在這邊跟大家講巴菲特！

Hon Hai was the first new listed stock I encountered when I entered the securities industry. I am an electronics stock analyst. Hon Hai held a company briefing during its initial public offering, and I took the bus provided by the company to visit its factory in Tucheng. I knew at the time that Hon Hai was a good company, but I didn't know it would be this successful. If I had sold my ancestral property to buy Hon Hai back then, there would be no need to mention Warren Buffett here!



鴻海27年漲了436倍年複利也才25%，
這幾年台灣的理財雜誌喜歡報導一些投資素人，
個個績效不僅比巴菲特好，甚至比漲最多的鴻海高，
有一個騙子竟然吹噓他10年賺36倍！
績效好到這樣應該上富比士雜誌才對，怎麼會是O周刊呢？
台灣是出產巴菲特最多的地方，
翻一翻財經雜誌每期都有一個新巴菲特，
他們的績效多半誇大，
媒體不查甚至默許造假，真是自甘墮落。

Revised English: Hon Hai's stock has increased 436 times over the course of 27 years, with an annual compound interest rate of just 25%. In recent years, financial magazines in Taiwan have reported on amateur investors who outperform Warren Buffett and even Hon Hai, which has seen the biggest increase. One fraudster, Wei, even claimed to have made 36 times their investment in just 10 years! This performance was remarkable enough to be featured in Forbes magazine, but instead was reported in Business Today. Taiwan is known for producing many Warren Buffetts. Every financial magazine seems to have a new one, but most of their performance records are exaggerated. The media doesn't verify these claims, and may even be complicit in these fraudulent activities, which is a true disgrace.

誇大績效在藥品叫賣假藥，
在社會新聞叫詐騙集團，
在理財雜誌竟然叫做投資達人？
這是很嚴重的問題，大家卻不當一回事兒。

This act of exaggeration in performance is referred to as selling counterfeit drugs. In social news, it is referred to as a scam. However, in financial magazines, they are referred to as "investment experts." This is a significant issue that everyone seems to be disregarding.

巴菲特的績效50年來年複利近20%，這是非常可怕的紀錄。
投資績效短期2-3年超過20%有可能，
長期50年20%以上其難度是指數級上升！
所以若有人宣稱績效每年超過20%以上就是在吹牛，
金融商品保證收益每年超過20%全是騙人！
不要說20%，15%就在騙人了。

Warren Buffett's performance has had an annual compound interest rate of nearly 20% over 50 years, which is an impressive accomplishment. While it may be possible for an investment to see returns exceeding 20% in the short term of 2-3 years, surpassing a 20% return over a period of 50 years is significantly more difficult. So, if someone claims to consistently have annual returns above 20%, they are likely exaggerating. Financial products that guarantee returns above 20% per year are likely to be scams. Even if they promise a return of 15%, it is likely that they are engaging in deceptive practices.

騙人的商品很多，最近流傳投資菲律賓賭場一年可以回本，
不用查即知是騙子。
還有M幣，半年回本，都是騙人的。

There is a abundance of fraudulent products available. Recently, a claim has been circulating that investing in a casino in the Philippines can provide a return within one year, however, this is easily proven false without investigation. Additionally, the M coins that guarantee a return on investment in half a year are also fraudulent.



看ROE要特別注意，
在不景氣年代表現比同業還更優秀往往就是好公司。
台塑和中碳都是塑化股，
2001年中碳ROE降到22%，台塑8%，
2001年是原料股不景氣的一年，
兩相比較中碳比台塑好一點。
台塑是大公司，當整個產業不景氣時難免受到影響。
中碳是一家小公司，賣利基性產品像雜酚油，
比較不受景氣影響。由此比較中碳比台塑好。

One key factor to consider when choosing stocks based on ROE is crucial. Firms that surpass their competitors during economic downturns are often deemed strong. Both Formosa Plastics and China Steel Chemical are involved in the plastic industry. In 2001, China Steel Chemical's ROE declined to 22% while Formosa Plastics' was at 8%. This was a tough year for companies in the raw materials sector. When comparing the two, China Steel Chemical appears to be the better option as it is a smaller company that sells niche products such as creosote, and therefore is less impacted by economic fluctuations. On the other hand, Formosa Plastics, as a large company, is more susceptible to changes in the industry as a whole. Hence, based on this comparison, China Steel Chemical appears to be the better choice.

mikeon88

講稿 7/21 配得出現金
Lecture 7/21 High dividends

如何找到高ROE的股票？
第一步觀察過去5年ROE的趨勢，
第二能夠配得出現金的公司才夠維持ROE。

Finding stocks with high ROE can be accomplished by following these steps:
Observe the trend of ROE over the past 5 years.
Look for companies that can afford to pay cash in order to maintain a high ROE.



當公司獲利衰退了如何維持高ROE？
把分母的淨值降下來。
淨值包括保留盈餘和股本，
把保留盈餘配出來就是配息，
把股本配出來即減資。
減資跟配息都可以讓淨值降下來，
進而維持住高ROE。

Maintaining a high ROE when profits decline can be achieved by reducing the net assets in the denominator of the ROE calculation. Net assets include retained earnings and capital. Allocating retained earnings as dividends and returning capital can both decrease the net assets, resulting in a higher ROE.

為什麼維持高ROE這麼重要？
因為若不能維持高ROE股價將跌得很慘！
ROE下降，本益比跟著下修，即負的倍數效果，
股價會跌得很慘。

Maintaining a high ROE is crucial because a decrease in ROE can lead to a significant drop in the stock price. If ROE cannot be sustained, the PER will decrease, leading to a negative multiple effect and causing the stock price to plummet.

假設有一家公司EPS從3元衰退成2元，
造成ROE從20%降到13%，
本益比跟著同幅度往下降，
從10倍降到7倍，股價將跌54%，
獲利僅衰退1/3，反應到股價卻跌了54%，
因為ROE下降，本益比被往下修正。

If a company's EPS decreases from $3 to $2, it could lead to a drop in ROE from 20% to 13%. This decrease in ROE would cause the PER to fall from 10 times to 7 times, resulting in a 54% decrease in stock price. Despite the profits only declining by a third, the decrease in ROE causes the PER to decrease, leading to a 54% drop in stock price.



這很嚴重，因為獲利衰退很常見，要如何挽救股價？
問題出在哪裡？因本益比往下修正，
如何才能不讓本益比往下修？
維持住ROE即可，
獲利衰退了如何維持ROE？
把分母的淨值減下來，減資和配息都可以，
從15元減到10元，即便獲利仍只有2元，ROE回升到20%，
本益比跟著同幅度回升由7倍到10倍，
反應到股價只會跌17%，比原來跌到54%就好很多。

This is a critical issue, as profit declines are a common occurrence. The problem lies in the decrease in the PER due to a decrease in ROE. To prevent the PER from declining, it is essential to maintain a high ROE. If profits decline, the ROE can be sustained by reducing the net assets in the denominator of the ROE calculation. Both returning capital and paying dividends can help decrease the net assets. For example, if the net assets decrease from $15 to $10, even if the profits remain at $2, the ROE will increase to 20%. This will cause the PER to rise from 7 times to 10 times, leading to a much smaller 17% decrease in stock price compared to the original 54% drop.



獲利衰退沒有關係，把多餘的現金配出來維持住ROE，
股價就不會跌得那麼慘！

Even if profits decrease, allocating excess cash to maintain a high ROE can prevent a significant drop in stock price. By doing so, the impact of a profit decline can be mitigated.

以上是假設例子，實際上這樣做的是晶華酒店，
2000年淨利8.98億元後來降到6億多元，
造成ROE從18%降到13%。
晶華在2002年把股本從43.13億元減為21.56億元，
減資一半，
之後3年又大量配息，
減資和配息兩件事都做，
目的把ROE從13%拉回到27％，
股價如何反應？

The above is a hypothetical example, but in reality, it was the Regeant Hotel that carried out this action. In 2000, the net profit declined from NT$8.98 billion to more than NT$6 billion, causing the ROE to drop from 18% to 13%. In 2002, Regeant reduced its capital from NT$43.13 billion to NT$21.56 billion, effectively halving its capital. Over the next three years, a substantial amount of dividends were distributed. The aim of reducing capital and distributing dividends was to bring the ROE back up from 13% to 27%. What was the stock price reaction?



減資的第一天開盤時交易所會把股價調高，為什麼？
因減資前後股東財富不變，
減資股數減少，股價提高。
之後3年又大量配息，ROE從19%回升到27%，
ROE回升，本益比跟著上升，股價一路往上漲。
晶華酒店總共3度減資，股價曾登上股王。

The exchange raises the stock price when the market opens on the first day of return of capital because despite the reduction of capital, shareholder wealth stays unchanged. The decrease in the number of shares leads to an increase in stock price. Over the next three years, substantial dividends were distributed and the ROE increased from 19% to 27%. The improvement in ROE and a rise in the PER sustained the upward trend of the stock price. Regeant Hotel has undergone three capital reductions in total and was once known as the king of stocks, having the highest stock price among all stocks.

國巨為第二例，多次減資和大幅配息之後，
ROE由3%上升到14%，股價大漲。

Yageo is the second example. Following several reductions in capital and significant distributions of dividends, ROE increased from 3% to 14% and the stock price rose dramatically.



晶華酒店和國巨是賺錢的公司辦減資，
稱為現金減資。

Regent Hotel and Yageo are profitable companies that practice reduction of capital, also known as reduction of cash capital.

mikeon88

在以往比較常見的是虧損的公司辦減資，
上市櫃辦法規定每股淨值小於5元就得下市下櫃，
打入全額交割股。
假設有一家公司股本100元，虧損60元，
每股淨值剩4元就得下市，
請問如何讓股票繼續掛牌？

It was a common occurrence for companies that were making losses to decrease their capital. The listing regulations specify that if the NAV drops below NT$5, the company must be taken off the stock market and traded as fully delivered shares. For example, if a company has a capital of NT$100 and a loss of NT$60, and its NAV falls to NT$4, it will need to be delisted. How can the company ensure its stock remains listed?



虧損無可改變，但可以動什麼手腳？
只要減資6成，股數從10股減為4股，
每股淨值就回升到10元，
股票即能繼續掛牌，
公司還是虧損，股票卻可繼續掛牌。

The loss cannot be altered, but what actions can be taken? By reducing the capital by 60%, the number of shares will decrease from 10 to 4. If the NAV rebounds to NT$10, the stock can continue to be listed. Although the company is still making losses, the stock can remain listed.

虧損公司減資，股本繳回去註銷掉，
沒有股本可退還，因已虧掉了，
請問這樣股東財富有沒有減少？
一樣沒有！因減資前後股東財富不變。
減資不管是賺錢或虧損公司辦減資
都不會讓股東財富減少。

The loss-making company reduces its capital and writes off its capital. No cash is returned to shareholders as it has been lost. Will this decrease the wealth of the shareholders? No! The wealth of shareholders remains unchanged before and after the return of capital. Reducing capital, whether the company is profitable or loss-making, does not decrease the wealth of the shareholders.



威盛先減資再增資，請問為什麼如此？
威盛是一家虧損累累公司，需要股東再給它錢，
可是眼看即將要被下市，
一旦下市誰要去認它的現金增資。
所以要先減資來確保上市地位，
才能辦現金增資去跟股東要錢。

VIA first decreases and then increases its capital. The reason for this is because as a loss-making company, VIA requires additional funds from its shareholders. However, with the threat of delisting, there may be few willing participants in its rights issue. Therefore, the company must first reduce its capital to maintain its listing status, and then it can ask its shareholders for money through a rights issue.

美股的下市規定是看股價
一段期間之內低於 1 美金就得下市，
OTC則無此規定。
花旗銀行(C)2011年股價一度跌到 1 美金，眼看即將要被下市，
趕緊把股票10股合併成 1 股，股價回升到10元繼續掛牌。
股票合併又叫做反分割(reverse stock split)。

The rules for delisting of US stocks are based on stock prices. If a stock's price falls below $1 for a specified period, it may be delisted. On the other hand, this requirement is not applicable in the OTC market. In 2011, Citibank's (C) stock price fell to $1 and was in danger of being delisted. To maintain its listing status, the company conducted a reverse stock split, merging 10 shares into 1 share, which resulted in a stock price increase to $10.

美股股票分割股數表示方式跟台股除權不一樣，
台股除權之後股本才會增加，
美股分割之後連同前面幾年的股數也同時分割，
純粹從股數這一欄來看，看不出是哪年分割的。
下圖可口可樂2012年股票1股拆成2股之後，
連同前面幾年的股數也一併分割。

In terms of stock splits, US stocks are expressed differently from Taiwanese stocks after an ex-rights issue. In Taiwan, capital only increases after ex-rights, whereas in the US, a stock split affects all shares, including those from previous years. It is not possible to determine in which year a split occurred based solely on the number of shares column. As shown in the picture below, after 1 share of Coca-Cola stock was split into 2 shares in 2012, the number of shares from previous years was also divided at the same time.