mikeon88

配得出現金的公司才能夠維持住ROE，
這是好公司很重要的特徵。
台積電、中鋼、台塑這三家都市場上公認的好公司，
雖然都屬於資本密集產業，
賺了錢之後需要去買更多的機器設備來擴廠，
可是仍然配得現金出來，而且還很少辦現金增資，
因為運轉效率更好可以賺更多錢來配息。
能夠配得出現金是好公司重要特徵，
在茫茫股海若不曉得怎麼選股？
就從高配息的股票去選就對了！

Only companies that can pay dividends can maintain their ROE, which is an important characteristic of a good company. TSMC, China Steel, and Formosa Plastics are all recognized as excellent companies in the market, even though they are all capital-intensive industries. Despite needing to buy more machinery and equipment to expand their factories, they still manage to pay dividends and rarely raise funds through rights issues. This is because their higher operational efficiency allows them to make more money to pay dividends. The ability to pay dividends is a crucial aspect of being a good company. If you're unsure of how to choose stocks in the vast stock market, choosing high-dividend stocks is a good place to start.

相反的，公司一天到晚跟股東要錢，
常常辦現金增資和可轉換公司債(CB)就是利空。
高僑做倉儲自動化設備的公司，
2006年時還不錯，同學在推薦，
按盈再表一看的確不錯，獲利快速成長，ROE高，
同時看了個股新聞，在股價漲高時公司宣布辦現金增資，
預計募進14億元，當時淨值才13億元，淨值大增 1 倍。
看到這則新聞我即跟同學警告這是利空。

On the contrary, companies that continually ask shareholders for money, often through rights issues or convertible bonds (CBs), are considered red flags. Take Auto Tech (6234.TW) as an example, which specializes in automation equipment for warehouses. A student recommended the company to me in 2006 and it appeared to be performing well with its growing earnings and high ROE. However, when I read a news article announcing the company's plan to raise 1.4 billion dollars through a rights issue at a high stock price, I advised my student that this was a negative sign as the company's net worth was only 1.3 billion dollars and expected to double.



後來高僑獲利還衰退，ROE劇降，本益比往下修正，
股價一路慘跌，從最高140元跌到10元。
何以致此？
2006年是景氣還不錯的一年，
高僑產能滿載想辦現金增資來擴廠，
不料現增辦完之後景氣從此一去不復返，
公司獲利衰退，可是淨值增加 1 倍，ROE崩壞，
高僑在景氣高點辦了一個不該辦的現金增資。

Subsequently, Auto Tech's profits declined, its ROE plummeted, and its price-to-earnings ratio (PER) also decreased. Its stock price dropped dramatically, from a high of NT$140 to NT$10. This happened because 2006 was a peak year for the company. Auto Tech had reached full production capacity and decided to issue rights to raise funds for expanding its production. Unfortunately, after the expansion was completed, the boom did not return as expected. As a result, the company's profits fell, but its net assets doubled and its ROE plummeted. It would have been better for Auto Tech to not raise funds through a rights issue during the peak of the business cycle.

大額的現增是利空，
所謂大額，我規定指超過淨值1/2以上，
是淨值，不是股本。

A large rights issue is negative. By large, I mean an amount greater than half of the company's net assets, not capital.



現金增資募了多少錢自己要會算，新聞上不會每次都給答案。
高僑的新聞只寫要辦現金增資1.2億元，溢價118元發行，
這是什麼意思？
現金增資1.2億元是發行1.2 億元÷10這麼多股數，
因股票面額10元。
溢價118元，所謂溢價指超過10元以上，
可是一股是賣118元，不是128元，這是習慣性的說法。
所以1.2億 ÷ 10 x 118 = 14億元。

You have to calculate the amount of money raised by the rights issue yourself, as the news won't always provide the answer. For instance, Auto Tech's news only stated that they will issue rights worth NT$120 million at a premium of NT$118. This means the capital increase will be NT$120 million, or 1.2 million shares at a face value of NT$10 each. The premium of NT$118 refers to a price higher than the face value of NT$10 per share, so each share will be sold for NT$118, not NT$128. Hence, the total amount raised would be (NT$120 million / NT$10) x NT$118 = NT$1.4 billion.

大額現增指超過淨值1/2以上，
所謂淨值是母公司淨值。
潤泰全現金增資募了65億元，
65億元有沒有超過淨值1/2？

A large amount of rights issue is defined as being more than half of the net assets of the parent company. For example, when Ruentex Industries (2915.TW) raised NT$6.5 billion through a rights issue, it is necessary to determine if this amount exceeds half of the company's net assets.



盈再表抓的財報是合併報表，
什麼是合併報表講稿8/21會解釋。
這個淨值是合併淨值，
母公司淨值＝合併淨值－少數淨值
65億元剛好超過母公司淨值1/2，是利空。
消息一宣布當天股價就大跌！

The financial report obtained from On's table is a consolidated statement, which will be explained in Lecture 8/21. These net assets refer to consolidated net assets, and the net assets of the parent company can be calculated as the consolidated net assets minus the minority net assets. The NT$6.5 billion raised through a rights issue by Ruentexind (2915.TW) is slightly more than half of the parent company's net assets, which is viewed as negative news. The stock price dropped immediately upon the announcement of this news.

荷蘭皇家電信也辦了一個現金增資募40億歐元，
原先淨值才21億歐元，增加近2倍，股價大跌41%。

Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KKPNY) also raised 4 billion euros through a share issuance. Its original net assets were only 2.1 billion euros, meaning the increase was nearly double. As a result, the stock price dropped by 41%.

mikeon88

這裡值得一提的，賺錢的公司淨值一定是正的，對不對？
應當無庸置疑，
有無可能賺錢的公司淨值突然變成負的？
沒發生火災，未被掏空，
有可能，買回庫藏股就是。
假設有一家公司股數2股，EPS 5元，淨值30元，
2股 x 10 + 5EPS x 2 = 30淨值
買回 1 股庫藏股，股價50元，淨值變成 -20元，
30 -1庫 x 50 = -20
賺錢的公司會因為買回庫藏股買到淨值為負。

It's important to note that the net assets of a profitable company should always be positive. This is correct. However, if a profitable company buys back its own stock, its net assets may become negative.
For example, if a company has 2 shares with $5 EPS and $30 net assets,
$30.2 shares x $10 + $5 EPS x 2 = $30 net assets
after buying back one treasury stock at $50 per share, the net assets would become negative at -$20.
$30 -1 share x $50 =-$20
The buyback of treasury stocks by profitable companies can result in negative net assets.



買回庫藏股是減資的一種，跟減資有何不同？
減資是所有股東的一律被減，
買回庫藏股則為公司到市場上買回股票，
沒有賣的人股票不會減少，而且股權比例來還會上升。

The repurchase of treasury shares is a type of capital reduction, but how does it differ from capital reduction? Capital reduction uniformly reduces the shares of all shareholders, while the buyback of treasury shares involves the company purchasing its own stocks from the market. This results in a higher ownership ratio for those who have not sold their shares.

美股只要公司宣布買回庫藏股價就會應聲大漲，
因EPS上升，股價跟著上漲。
前面所述ROE上升，本益比跟著上升，
兩個程度上不同。
買回庫藏股註銷掉，股數減少，EPS上升，股價一定漲。

US stocks experience a sharp rise as soon as the company announces its plan to buy back its treasury shares. This is due to an increase in earnings per share (EPS), which causes a corresponding rise in stock price. As previously mentioned, the ROE also increases and so does the price to PER, although the degree of change may vary. When the company buys back and cancels its treasury shares, the number of shares decreases, causing an increase in EPS and a definite rise in stock price.



美股買回庫藏股一律註銷掉，
台股則除了註銷之外，也可轉給員工分紅，
分紅股數未減則EPS不變，股價不會漲。
台灣就是這點討厭，抄別人制度不好好抄，
抄回來後硬要補上 1 點或 2 點。
國外三權分立可以用，補上2權成五權就不能用。
台灣買回庫藏股加上可給員工分紅，
就不知股價會不會漲？
得去看新聞稿，上面會註明。

In the US, all buybacks of treasury stock are cancelled. In Taiwan, besides cancellation, they can also be distributed as employee bonuses, which keeps the number of shares unchanged and has no effect on EPS or stock prices. Taiwan has a tendency to adopt systems from other countries, but with modifications, such as the addition of two more powers to the three-power political system, making it more complicated. The outcome of the buyback of Taiwanese treasury stock combined with employee bonuses is uncertain. Check the news release for further information.

幾年前智原曾宣布買回庫藏股，
事後查其執行率為 0，沒買回半張。
問會計師，他說「因為那沒有罰則，
頂多下次再辦時主管機關K一下而已」。
公司宣布買回庫藏股可以不買，
像浩鼎、樂陞都是虚晃一招。

A few years ago, Faraday Technology (3035.TW) announced a plan to repurchase treasury stock, however, no repurchases have taken place since the announcement. When I asked my accountant, he said "Because there's no fine, the authority will only give a slap on the wrist at most." The company's announcement to repurchase treasury stock may have been a feint, similar to OBI Pharma (4174.TW) and XPEC Entertainment (3662.TW).

美股很常見買回庫藏股。
當公司手上現金太多，沒有其他投資機會，
股價又太低時就去會買回庫藏股，
因為買庫藏股沒有繳稅的問題，
配息股東要繳稅。

Repurchasing of treasury shares is a common practice among US stocks. Companies engage in this when they have an excess of cash, lack of other investment opportunities, and the stock price is low. The repurchasing process doesn't have any tax implications, however, shareholders will be taxed when they receive dividends.

盈再表上的配息率是股息加上買回庫藏股。
美股配息不只一年配一次，也可以半年配或季配都可以。

The payout ratio in On's table includes both dividends and repurchased treasury shares. In the US, dividends are not limited to once-a-year distributions, they can also be distributed on a semi-annual or quarterly basis.



對公司來講何時應買庫藏股，何時該減資或配息？
股價便宜應買回庫藏股，
不便宜則減資或配息。
宏達電在2011年股價900元宣布買庫藏股是錯的，
因為900元貴。

The company must decide when to buy back treasury shares and when to reduce capital or distribute dividends. If the stock price is cheap, it is a good idea to buy back treasury shares. However, if the stock price is expensive, reducing capital or distributing dividends may be a better option. In 2011, it was not a wise decision for HTC to buy back treasury shares at a price of NT$900 as it was considered expensive at that time.

mikeon88

買回庫藏股買到淨值為負，表示負債比是多少？
負債比＝負債÷總資產，
資產100元，淨值-20元，負債比是120%，
資(100)＝債(120)＋值(-20)
負債比超過100%表示公司在做沒有本錢生意，
開公司自己完全不出錢，全部靠舉債，
身為股東不用出錢，公司每年還賺錢回來，這是最好的公司，
天底下還什麼比這更好的事！
什麼樣的公司才可以如此？
收現金的公司，巴菲特班就是。
我開這個班最大的費用是租教室的租金，2天要32,000元。
只要確定有6位新生報名，就可以去借錢來繳房租，
收到學費之後還掉負債，剩下的錢全部都是我賺的。
開這個班完全不用出自己的錢，
本班沒有應收帳款，給我應收帳款就把你踢出去！

The repurchasing of treasury stocks will result in a decrease in net asset value.
Debt ratio = debt ÷ total assets
Assets are $100, net assets are -$20, and the debt ratio is 120%.
This can be represented as:
A ($100) = L (120%) + E (-$20)
A debt ratio greater than 100% signifies that the company is operating without any personal investment and solely relying on debt. Starting a company does not necessitate shareholder's funding and the company still generates profits each year. This type of company is considered exceptional and there is nothing better. Such a business model is referred to as a cash cow company, similar to the Buffett Lecture Series.
The Buffett Lecture Series is a business model that yields cash flow. The primary cost of starting this course is the rental fee for the classroom, which is NT$32,000 for two days. If I can secure enrollment from at least six new students, I can obtain a loan to pay for the rental fee. After receiving tuition, I can pay off the debt and retain all the profits. This means I won't have to contribute any personal funds for this course. This course does not accept accounts receivable and anyone who tries to extend credit will not be allowed to participate.



美股可以找到一堆淨值為負的公司，
康寶濃湯(CPB)、麥當勞(MCD)、Clorox、穆迪(MCO)、
百勝客(YUM)都是，百勝客為披薩哈和肯德基的母公司，
這些公司一看就知都是收現金的。
在台股找不到這種公司，不是公司做不到，
而是公司法不允許這樣做。
公司法規定買回庫藏股只能買到淨值一定比例。

In the US stock market, there are several companies with negative net assets, such as Campbell Soup (CPB), McDonald's (MCD), Clorox (CLX), Moody's (MCO), and Yum! Brands (YUM), the parent company of Pizza Hut and KFC. These companies are easily recognizable as cash cows. However, this type of company is not allowed in the Taiwanese stock market due to company laws which prohibit the purchase of treasury stocks that exceed a certain percentage of net assets.

Clorox是我去牙醫家上課時跟我說的一家公司，
全美的牙醫都用它的消毒藥水。
它的淨水器叫Brita，電視有在打廣告，德國的公司。
它每年都賺錢，可是有兩年的淨值為負，因買回庫藏股。

A dentist introduced me to Clorox during a lecture at their home. Dentists across the US use its disinfectant products. Its water purifier brand, Brita, is advertised on television and is a German company. Despite making a profit every year, Clorox has had a negative net asset value for two years due to its repurchase of treasury stocks.



賺錢的公司淨值為負，ROE不能算，
改用EPS算貴淑價。
便宜價=EPS x 本益比12倍，
貴價=EPS x 本益比30倍。

When a profitable company has a negative net asset value, the traditional ROE calculation cannot be used. In such cases, EPS is a more appropriate method.
A stock is considered cheap when its price is equal to the EPS multiplied by 12 times the PER.
A stock is considered expensive when its price is equal to the EPS multiplied by 30 times the PER.

負淨值公司無法由ROE評估經營績效，須改看ROA，
母ROA = 母淨利/母資產
合併報表的資產為母子公司合計，
故須依母淨值與子淨值比重概略分出母資產以利計算

Companies with negative net assets cannot accurately assess their operating performance using ROE and should switch to ROA instead.
Parent ROA = parent net profit/parent assets
In a consolidated statement, assets include the total of both parent and subsidiary assets. To calculate ROA, it is necessary to roughly allocate parent assets based on the proportion of parent net assets and subsidiary net assets.

mikeon88

能夠配得出現金才維持住ROE，
下一步如何才能配得出現金？
現金不是想配就配得出來，
不是賺了錢即配得出現金，
有些公司即便賺到錢一樣配不出現金，
因要買更多機器設備去擴廠。

A high ROE can be maintained by companies that are capable of paying high dividends. The next consideration is how the dividends are distributed, which is not done randomly. Some profitable companies may choose not to pay dividends as they need to retain the funds for expanding production capacity.

盈再率低的公司才配得出現金，
盈再率即盈餘再投資率，
其公式分子＝固資4+長投4-固資0-長投0，
第4年的固定資產加長期投資減第0年的，
第0年就是第 1 年的前一年，
或者可想成2004減掉2000年，4減0才有4年。
4年來增加了多少固資和長投占盈餘比重，
即資本支出占盈餘比重。

Companies that have a low profit reinvestment rate (PR%) can offer high dividends.
The numerator of the PR% formula is calculated as follows:
(Fixed Assets in Year 4 + Long-Term Investment) - (Fixed Assets in Year 0 + Long-Term Investment).
This reflects the increase in fixed assets and long-term investments as a proportion of profit over a 4-year period, representing the proportion of capital expenditures in relation to profit.



為何每4年算一次？
因為景氣循環電子股3年一個循環，
傳統產業5年半一個循環，
為求一致取4年。
盈再率就是公司每賺100元要再投資多少錢去買機器設備，
比率低的公司比較可能配出現金。

Why is the PR% calculated every four years? The calculation is based on an average of the business cycle, which is three years in the electronics industry and five and a half years in traditional industries. PR% represents the amount of money a company must invest in machinery and equipment for every $100 in profits. Companies with a lower PR% are more likely to pay higher dividends.

用用車子來做比喻，
ROE就是車子跑的速度，盈再率為耗油率。
我們選股兩大條件「高ROE、低盈再率」
就是要買跑得快而且省油的車子。
這是在講盈餘跟現金的概念，兩者是不一樣的概念。

Using a car as a metaphor, the ROE can be compared to the speed at which the car is traveling, and the PR% represents the fuel consumption rate. When choosing stocks, it's ideal to look for a combination of "high ROE and low PR%", similar to buying a car that runs fast and efficiently. This distinction highlights the difference between profit and cash, as they are not synonymous concepts.



力晶2008年大虧了575億元，
可是現金只少掉168億元，何故？
力晶是做什麼的？DRAM，
什麼東西很貴？設備很貴。
2008年金融風暴沒有生意可做就停工，員工放無薪假，
虧在哪裡？
機器設備的折舊，並未燒掉多少現金。

In 2008, Powerchip (5346.TW) suffered a loss of NT$57.5 billion, but only NT$16.8 billion in cash was lost. Powerchip is a DRAM company and its largest expense is on equipment. During the 2008 financial crisis, work was temporarily suspended due to a shortage of orders and employees took unpaid leave. The loss was primarily due to depreciation of machinery and equipment, which did not consume a large amount of cash.



虧損累累公司不會倒閉，現金周轉不靈才會，
台鐵幾十年來嚴重虧損，卻未倒閉。
只要從外面再弄錢進來，
跟股東要錢、向政府申請補助、或者賣土地，
就不會倒閉。

A company that experiences losses may not go bankrupt, but if it lacks sufficient cash flow, it can become insolvent. Taiwan Railway, despite its prolonged losses, continues to operate because it can obtain funds from outside sources through methods like raising capital from shareholders, receiving government subsidies, or disposing of land to replenish its cash reserves.

所以看一家公司要看兩個不同面向：
公司的價值在賺錢，錢賺越多越好，
衡量的指標看ROE，
盈餘 = 價值(ROE)

還要看現金周轉會不會有問題，
預警的指標是算盈再率，
現金 = 周轉(盈再率)

Therefore, evaluating a company requires considering two different perspectives:
The value of a company lies in its ability to earn profits, and the more money it makes, the better its value.
The measure used to assess this is ROE.
Profit = Value (ROE)

In addition, the evaluation also depends on the company's cash flow stability.
The key warning sign is the Profit Reinvestment Rate (PR%), which reflects the proportion of profit being reinvested.
Cash = Cash Flow (PR%)

mikeon88

現金要怎麼看？
資產負債表的第一個科目的就是現金，
不過它只表明公司現在手上有多少現金，
未說明現金是什麼進來怎麼進來，怎麼出去的？
現金如何進出對於區別公司好壞有很大不同，
若現金是自己賺來的是最好，
舉債來的就不好了，
賣土地來的也不太好。
要知道現金怎麼進出得去看第三張財務報表叫現金流量表。

How to evaluate cash?
The first item on the balance sheet is cash, which only indicates the amount of cash the company possesses. It doesn't provide information on the movement of cash, including incoming and outgoing. The distinction between strong and weak companies can greatly depend on the flow of cash. If the cash is generated internally, that is the optimal scenario. Borrowing money is not preferable, and selling assets, such as land, is also not ideal. To gain insight into cash inflows and outflows, you must review the third financial statement, the statement of cash flows.



它把所有的會計科目重新分類，分成三大類：
營業活動的產生的現金流量、
投資活動所產生的現金流量、
融資活動產生的現金流量。
最後期末現金等於資產的現金，
在解釋資產的現金怎麼進來，怎麼出去的。

It reclassifies all accounting accounts into three categories: cash flow from operating activities, cash flow from investing activities, and cash flow from financing activities. The final ending cash balance is equal to the cash of assets, explaining the inflows and outflows of assets.

科目前面＋表示這個科目的增加會造成現金流入，
－表示這個科目的增加會造成現金流出。
請問折舊為什麼是＋呢？
折舊的增加為何造成現金流入？

A "+" in front of an account indicates that an increase in the account will result in cash inflows, while a "-" indicates that an increase in the account will result in cash outflows. Why is depreciation shown as "+"? Why does an increase in depreciation result in cash inflows?



買一部機器500萬元，用5年，每年提列100萬元折舊。
這500萬元現金在買機器的第一年已經付掉了，
每年在算營業利益時又多扣掉100萬元折舊，
營收減掉成本，成本裡包含了折舊。
折舊沒付掉現金，可是在算營業利益裡被扣掉，
在算現金時要把它加回來。

A machine was purchased for $5 million and is expected to be used for 5 years, with an annual depreciation set at $1 million. In the first year of purchasing the machine, $5 million in cash was paid. When calculating operating profit, the $1 million annual depreciation is also deducted as part of expenses. Although no cash was actually paid for depreciation, it is deducted from operating profit, so it must be added back when calculating cash.

mikeon88

若仍不明其義，可以這樣想會比較簡單：
所謂營業活動所產生的現金流量等於每個月領的薪水，
投資活動即去買股票，
融資活動是借錢。
假設每個月薪水10萬元，
買股票12萬元，
借錢8萬元，
手上現金即6萬元，
這就是現金流量表！

If you still don't understand the meaning, it's easier to think of it this way:
Cash flow from operating activities is equal to the monthly salary received,
Investment activities include buying stocks,
Financing activities involve borrowing money.
Assuming a monthly salary of $100,000,
Buying stocks for $120,000,
Borrowing $80,000,
Cash on hand is $60,000.
This is the cash flow statement!



請問這個人會不會現金周轉不靈？不知道，
這就現金流量表的缺點，不曉得會不會周轉不靈？
我的盈再率就是在補足這個缺點，告訴大家答案。
盈再率的分子固定資產加長期投資增加的部分，
等於投資活動 -固資 -長投，
分母淨利和即營業活動中最重要的科目，
盈再率＝投資活動÷營業活動。
本例買股票12萬元÷薪水10萬元＝盈再率120%，
120%會不會周轉不靈？
還不會，因只差2萬元周轉一下就過來了。
盈再率100%指薪水10萬元，買了10萬元股票，剛剛好夠用。

Can this person have cash flow problems? It's unclear. This is the disadvantage of the cash flow statement, as it doesn't provide information on the sufficiency of cash flow. To address this limitation, I use the PR%. The numerator of the PR% is the increase in fixed assets and long-term investments (representing investment activities), and the denominator is net earnings, which is a crucial component of operating activities. The PR% is calculated as investment activities divided by operating activities. In this example, with a monthly salary of $10,000 and stocks purchased at a cost of $12,000, the PR% is 120%. This indicates that the cash flow is sufficient, as a $2,000 shortfall can easily be borrowed. An PR% of 100% means that the salary and stock purchases are equal, providing sufficient cash flow.

mikeon88

要差到多少才會危險？
薪水10萬元買20萬元股票才危險，
即盈再率200%，有2種可能性：
一是被嚴重掏空，
一是在大量投資的產業，
像DRAM、LCD，這兩個產業下場都很慘，
盈再率超過200%絕對不可以買。

How much difference is considered dangerous?
Having a 200% PR% by investing $200,000 in stocks with a monthly salary of $100,000 is considered dangerous.
There are two potential outcomes:
One is embezzlement,
the other is investing in an industry with aggressive expansion,
such as DRAM and LCD, which have both suffered significant losses.
Investing with a PR% exceeding 200% is not advisable.

所以要保持安全邊距，盈再率大於80%就不太愛買。
不太愛買就去Costco買，因可以秒退。

Therefore, it is essential to maintain a margin of safety. A PR% greater than 80% is considered too high, and it is not advisable to make the purchase.



盈再率只要低於80%以下就好，
沒有越低越好或負的就不好這回事。
因為周轉是不要超過那條界線，
在底下愛怎麼周轉都沒有關係，無所謂越低越好。

As long as the PR% is below 80%, it is fine,
there is no correlation between a lower PR% and being better, or a negative PR% being worse.
Cash flow should not exceed the established limit, regardless of how you manage your cash flow below that limit, it is not better or worse, there is no such thing as the lower the better in cash flow management.



公司虧損盈再率標為虧損。
盈再率為負則表示4年來沒有添加新的機器設備，
因為折舊價值越來越低。

If the company is loss-making, the PR% will be labeled as "LOSS".
A negative PR% means that no new equipment has been added in the last 4 years, and due to depreciation, the value of the machine is decreasing.

mikeon88

同學問我「盈再率負的有沒有關係？」
我說「盈再率小於80%就好。」
同學仍不解「那負的呢？」
我反問「負的有沒有小於80%？」
同學居然愣在那裡。
教這個班沒太多困難的問題可以回答，多半是國小數學。

Some students asked me: "Does it matter if PR% is negative?"
I replied: "As long as PR% is below 80%, it doesn't matter."
The students asked further: "What about negative PR%?"
I responded: "Is a negative number below 80%?"
The students were stunned and didn't know how to respond.
This course mainly covers basic arithmetic, with few challenging questions.

有一個李姓牙醫嗆我盈再率不對，
要改成他自創的公式：
(固資4+長投4-固資0-長投0) / (淨利4 - 淨利0)

A dentist with the surname Li scolded my PR% for being incorrect and demanded that I change it to his own formula: (Fixed Assets 4 + Long-term Investments 4 - Fixed Assets 0 - Long-term Investments 0) / (Net Profit 4 - Net Profit 0).

這條公式一看就知道錯了，
若淨利4 = 淨利0 時，分母為0，變成無限大，
牙醫竟然認為現金周轉將出大問題。
第4年和第0年賺一樣多，還是很賺啊，
怎麼財務會出問題？實在好笑。

I instantly recognized that his formula was incorrect. If net profit in year 4 is equal to net profit in year 0, then the denominator would be zero, resulting in infinity. Despite having the same profit in both years, Dentist Li feels that cash flow is a major problem for the company. It's absurd that a company that is still profitable could encounter financial difficulties.

分母 0 為無限大，這僅是國小數學，
這個仁兄居然不知，在他的部落格狂吠，
丟盡他自己的臉還不自知，
已經好幾年還死不認錯。

死不認錯乃建德修業之賊也！

A denominator of zero results in infinity, which is just a basic concept in elementary mathematics. It's astonishing that this person didn't know this and was ranting about it on his blog. He has lost face and yet refuses to acknowledge his mistake. It's been several years, but he still refuses to admit his error and apologize.
Refusing to admit one's mistakes is a sign of a lack of virtue and integrity.

金融股不適用盈再率，因為金融股沒有機器設備，
而且金融股的長期投資特別大。
一年以上的放款和買一年期上的公債都算是長期投資，
所以算出來的盈再率都高得嚇人，甚至上千。

Financial stocks do not apply PR% because they do not have assets such as machinery and equipment. Furthermore, long-term investments in financial stocks tend to be substantial, including loans with a term longer than one year and bonds with a maturity greater than one year. As a result, the calculated PR% can be very high, reaching thousands.

金融股改看配息率，大於40%才是配得出現金。
40%的標準是從講稿10/21講到的兩家地雷股
雅新跟SAY得到的結論，屆時再解釋。

Financial stocks take into account dividend payout ratios above 40%, indicating that a sufficient amount of cash has been paid out. This 40% requirement is derived from two problematic stocks, Yahsin (2418.TW) and SAY, discussed in Lecture 10/21, which will be explained further later.

mikeon88

講稿 8/21 會計
Lecture 8/21 Accounting

以前看的財報是單獨報表，
關於轉投資的部分從業外投資收入認列進來。
投資收入一個科目卻包含很多東西，
長投、短投，不管有幾家子公司全部認列在裡頭，
它只是一個數字，子公司到底長什麼樣完全看不清楚，
單獨報表有個缺點很容易藏污納垢，
賣不掉的存貨、收不回來的爛帳全藏在子公司裡，
母公司的報表看來很漂亮，存貨下降，應收減少。
後來交易所規定上市櫃公司須公布合併報表。

The financial report previously reviewed was a non-consolidated statement, with subsidiary investments being recognized as non-operating investment income. Investment income is categorized as one account, but includes many items such as long-term and short-term investments, regardless of the number of subsidiary companies involved. However, this is just a numerical representation and the actual appearance of the subsidiary companies is unclear.

The disadvantage of a non-consolidated statement is that it is easily susceptible to concealing financial improprieties. Unsold inventory and uncollectible accounts receivable can be hidden within the subsidiary companies, making the parent company's report look attractive with decreased inventory and reduced accounts receivable. Later, the exchange required listed companies to issue consolidated financial statements.



所謂合併報表是把母公司跟子公司的會計科目
直接相加扣掉重複的部分，
不是按持股比例認列。
跟拍照一樣，單獨報表等於媽媽在拍獨照，
有幾個小孩子完全看不清楚。
合併報表則是媽媽和小孩在拍全家福照片，
這個小孩是跟前夫所生，持股僅5成，只能拍半身？
不是！一樣全身拍進來，扣掉重複部分，
合併報表等於在拍全家福的照片。

The consolidated statement refers to the combination of the accounts of both the parent company and subsidiary company, with the repeated parts subtracted directly, rather than recognized in proportion. Think of it like taking a picture. A non-consolidated statement is like a picture taken only of the parent company, while its subsidiary companies are not visible. In contrast, a consolidated statement is like a family portrait, where the parent company and its subsidiary companies are all captured in the same image. For example, even if a subsidiary company was created with the parent company's former spouse and only holds 50% of the shares, it is still captured in full in the consolidated statement. The redundant information is subtracted, and the consolidated statement is like a comprehensive family picture.



什麼公司要編合併報表？
持股50%上，或者有控制權的。
明碁對友達的持股只有10%，
若友達總經理由明碁在指派，就要編合併報表。

Which companies compile consolidated statements? Companies that hold 50% or more of the shares, or have control. BenQ only holds 10% of the shares in AUO. If the CEO of AUO is appointed by BenQ, a consolidated statement will be compiled.

mikeon88

合併報表怎麼編？看這個例子比較清楚。
假設母公司資產100元，負債0，淨值100元，
母：100＝0＋100
投資10元到子公司占股權50%，
子：40＝20＋(10+10)
子公司淨值20元，負債20元，資產40元。

How to compile a consolidated statement? This example should provide clear insight.
The parent company holds assets worth $100, with no liabilities, resulting in net assets of $100.
Parent Company: Assets = Liabilities + Net Assets = $100 = $0 + $100
The parent company invested $10 in a subsidiary, representing 50% equity ownership.
Subsidiary: Assets = Liabilities + Net Assets = $40 = $20 + ($10 + $10)
The subsidiary's net assets stand at $20, with liabilities at $20 and assets worth $40.

合併資產就是直接相加扣掉重複的部分，
100＋40然後呢？要扣掉10元，
這10元是母公司丟進來的，重複計算，
合併資產130元。

Consolidating assets involves directly adding and subtracting duplicate parts.
For example, if you add $100 and $40 and then subtract $10,
the $10 was invested by the parent company and was counted twice.
Therefore, the consolidated assets amount to $130.



合併負債0＋20＝20，未重複，
合併淨值則為110，
在合併淨值底下多一個科目少數股權10元，
來自持股50%以上子公司貢獻的部分。

Consolidated liabilities equal $0 + $20 = $20, without duplication.
The consolidated net assets amount to $110.
Under the consolidated net assets, there is a minority interest account of $10,
which represents the portion contributed by a subsidiary that holds more than 50% equity ownership.

損益表也是，把母公司跟子公司的所有會計科目
直接相加扣掉重複的部分，
到最後就是合併淨利，
底下一樣多一個科目叫少數股權。

The same applies to the income statement. All accounting entries from both the parent company and subsidiary are directly added and duplicates are subtracted. The bottom line is consolidated net profit. As in the case of net assets, there is a minority interest account included in the consolidated income statement.



在合併淨值跟合併淨利底下了多一個少數股權，
一張報表若搞不清到底是合併還是非合併？
找一下裡頭有少數股權的即合併報表。

In both the consolidated net assets and consolidated net profit, there is an additional account for minority interests.
If you are unsure whether a statement is consolidated or non-consolidated, look for the presence of the minority interests account.
If it is included, the statement is a consolidated one.

mikeon88

報表有2種，算出來答案要一樣，
ROE若拿單獨報表來算，直接就是EPS÷NAV，
若拿合併報表來算，就得再扣掉少數股權。

There are two forms of statements, and the outcome must be consistent. If ROE is computed using a non-consolidated statement, it is directly EPS÷NAV. On the other hand, if a consolidated statement is used for calculation, we need to subtract minority equity.



盈再率的計算，因為合併報表僅針對
合併淨值跟合併淨利區分少數股權，
其他的科目就沒有這樣的區分，
無合併固定資產的少數股權與合併長期投資的少數股權。
若拿合併報表來算，請全部用合併的去算。

The calculation of PR% uses consolidated statements, which only distinguish minority interests in consolidated net assets and consolidated net profit. There is no such distinction in other accounts, such as consolidated fixed assets and long-term investments without minority interests. When using consolidated statements to calculate PR%, it is necessary to include all consolidated figures.



盈再率用合併報表跟非合併算會有差異，
何者比較大？
不一定，子公司資本密集的公司比較多
用合併報表算出來的盈再率比較大。

The calculation of PR% using consolidated statements and non-consolidated statements may result in different outcomes, but it is not certain which one is greater. Companies with more capital-intensive subsidiaries tend to have a higher PR% when calculated using consolidated statements.

講稿9/21提到地雷股被嚴重掏空的標準，盈再率大於200%，
在合併報表仍然適用。
目前收集到國外地雷股的例子，
江西賽維、玖紙協鑫、中國伊利，盈再率都超過200%。

IIn the 9/21 lecture, the criteria for severely hollowed-out landmine stocks was discussed as having a PR% greater than 200%. This criterion still applies when using consolidated statements. Currently, examples of foreign landmine stocks have been collected, including Jiangxi LDK Solar, Nine Dragons Paper, and China Yili, whose PR% have all exceeded 200%.

49國的盈再表抓的都是合併報表。

The tables of 49 countries in "On" now all use consolidated statements.

mikeon88

盈再表有時候需要修改，
券商資料庫格式更動，盈再表就得跟著改，
改好之後會在討論區張貼公告，
不用擔心我們這堂課是永久保固，盈再表也是。
大家應該知道這一輩子已脫離不了我的魔掌心了，
所謂做投資？就在按盈再表而已，
同學問我哪一支股票怎麼看？
我也是根據盈再表在解釋。

On's table may need to be updated from time to time,
due to changes in the format of the broker's database.
When updates are made, a notice will be posted in the discussion forum.
Please be assured that our class and On's table are both covered by a permanent warranty.
You should be aware that you will never escape my influence for the rest of your life.
What is investment all about? Simply consult On's table.
When students ask for my opinion on certain stocks,
I always base my explanation on On's table.

把投資變簡單的人，不是巴菲特，是我啊！
有盈再表之後投資才變得這麼簡單，
盈再表是我寫的程式，非常複雜的程式。

The person who made investment simple is not Warren Buffett, it's me!
Investment only became this simple with the existence of On's table, which is a program written by me and is extremely complex.



同學下載了新版的盈再表，
請把舊版的刪掉，保留新版的就好，
看有些人還在收集舊版的盈再表，
是想來換公仔嗎？

If students have downloaded a new version of On's table,
it is recommended that they delete the old version and retain the new one.
Some students have saved previous versions of On's table.
Would they like to exchange them for toys?

同學還問我新版和舊版數字為何會不一樣？
就是不一樣才要更新啊！

Students also ask me why the numbers in the new version and the old version are different.
This is the reason for update !



上這堂課常常被同學問到一些讓我全身無力的問題。
報名時同學說他老婆對投資也很有興趣，
他願意幫老婆付中午便當的錢，
問我這樣子可不可以？
我回他「唉喲！這樣怎麼好意思呢，
可是你老婆還是要再給我學費呀！」

In this class, I'm often asked some questions that leave me feeling powerless by students.
On the first day of class, a student mentioned that his wife was also interested in investing and offered to pay for her lunch. I replied, "Oh, how thoughtful! However, your wife still needs to pay the tuition fee."

另外一個同學問，他老爸對投資也很有興趣，
他想把他一次永久免費保固的機會讓給老爸可不可以？
我說「吃到飽的餐廳兩人同來也是收2個人的餐費啊！」

Another student asked if he could transfer his chance for a free permanent warranty to his father, who is also interested in investing.
I responded by saying, "Even if two people dine together in an all-you-can-eat restaurant, each person still has to pay for their own meal."

mikeon88

投資的會計處理：
公司投資另外一家公司在會計上要去怎麼記帳？
這裡牽涉到一些專有名詞，同學要努力記一下，
以後看到相關報告時才知道什麼意思。

Investment accounting:
How does the company keep books when it invests in another company ?
There are some terminologies involved here, please try hard to remember.
You will know what it means when you see the relevant report later.

轉投資怎麼記帳？以持股20%為準，
20%以上的，50%以下叫做權益法，
按持股比例認列盈虧。
20%以下為成本法，認列股價漲跌。
為何如此區分？
20%以上視為公司的一部分，
即便沒配息出來，仍直接按持股比例認列盈虧。
20%以下成本法則當作純粹的股票投資，
認列股價的漲跌。

How to record investment in financial statements? A 20% shareholding is taken as a baseline. Investments above 20% but below 50% are accounted using the equity method, where profit and loss are recognized based on the proportion of shareholdings. Investments below 20% are accounted using the cost method, and any changes in stock price are recognized. Why the distinction? Investments exceeding 20% are considered part of the company, and the profit and loss are recognized directly based on the shareholding ratio, even if no dividends are distributed. In contrast, investments below 20% using the cost method are considered a pure stock investment, and fluctuations in stock price must be recognized.



舉例說明，權益法：持股20%的子公司賺了25元，
在母公司損益表業外投資收入增加5元，
資產負債表長投增加5元，現金未增，因只是認列。

Example of Equity Method: A subsidiary with 20% shareholding earns a profit of $25.
The parent company's non-operating investment income on the income statement increases by $5.
The long-term investments on the balance sheet also increase by $5, but cash does not change as this is a bookkeeping entry only.



當子公司配息3元，則視為投資收回，
母公司現金增加3元，長投減掉3元，因視為投資收回。
這跟有些人說他股票抱好幾年了，
每年配息把持有成本扣掉，持股已是零成本，
即視為投資收回。

When a subsidiary pays a dividend of $3, it is considered a return on investment. The parent company's cash increases by $3, and the long-term investment decreases by $3 as it is considered a return on the investment. This is similar to long-term investors, where the annual dividends minus the holding costs equal zero, resulting in a return on investment.



有人問，長投減3元，減到最後長投會不會變成負的？
不會，長投頂多變成0，因為公司賺5元，長投即增加5元，
配息頂多5元，長投減到最後只會變成0，不至於變成負的。

A question was raised if the reduction of long-term investment by $3 would result in a negative value. The answer is no, the long-term investment will only decrease to 0 at the most. This is because the subsidiary earned a profit of $5, and the long-term investment increased by $5. The dividend received can only be a maximum of $5, so the long-term investment will only decrease to 0, and it will not become negative.

成本法認列股價漲跌，分為交易目的跟備供出售，
交易目的是做短線的股票，
備供出售就是可供出售，為做長線的股票。

The cost method recognizes changes in stock prices, which can be classified into two categories: transaction purposes and available for sale.
Transaction purposes refer to stocks held for short-term purposes, less than a year.
Available for sale refers to stocks held for long-term purposes.

交易目的股價漲跌在業外的金融資產評價科目認列，
賣掉股票則記為處分利得。

Stock price rises and falls of transaction purpose are recognized in non-operating financial asset evaluation account.
Sale of stocks is recorded as a disposal gain.



永記在以往每季賺 1 億多元，
2012年第一季卻賺了3.1億元，
其中 1 億多元金融資產評價利益，
因為該季股市大漲從6,600漲到8,200。
永記是做油漆的，本業還算賺錢，
可是未全配息給股東，
還留下一些錢自己在玩股票，股票玩得很大。

Yung Chi Paint (2726.TW) has been earning more than NT$100 million in profit every quarter in the past, but in the first quarter of 2012, it earned NT$310 million. Among them, more than NT$100 million was financial asset appraisal income, due to the surge in the stock market from 6,600 points to 8,200 points this quarter. Yung Chi is a painter and his main business is making money. However, dividends are not fully paid to shareholders, and some money is left for the manager to play stocks, which is a big play in the stock market.

mikeon88

備供出售的股價漲跌不認列損益，改在淨值調整。

The stock price changes for available-for-sale securities are not recognized as gains or losses and are instead adjusted in the net assets.



新光金2011年淨利賺了55億元，可是淨值減少174億元。
新光金是壽險公司，投資很多股票，
2011年壽險本業仍然賺錢，
可是股市空頭，指數9,200跌到6,600，
股票賠了錢列為備供出售，
跌價損失不用提列損失，從淨值扣掉，少掉174億元。
這跟一個人薪水10萬元，玩股票賠了300萬元一樣，
究竟賺錢還是賠錢？

Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888.TW) reported a net profit of NT$5.5 billion in 2011 despite a decrease in its net assets by NT$17.4 billion. As a life insurance company, Shin Kong heavily invests in stocks. Although its life insurance business remained profitable in 2011, the stock market was in a bear market, declining from 9,200 to 6,600 points. The capital losses were recorded as available for sale, but they are not considered actual losses, but rather a reduction in net assets, which were NT$17.4 billion. It's like someone who has a salary of $100,000 and loses $3 million in stock trading. Does he make money or lose money?



潤泰全2015年EPS 8.1元，隔年股息僅1.6元，
為何配息僅20%這麼少？
因為認列轉投資南山人壽備供出售損失。
潤泰全2015年淨值少了802億元，少了71%。
若非2013年辦了現金增資，2015年淨值將成負數，破產！

Ruentex Industries (2915.TW) had an EPS of NT$8.1 in 2015, but the dividend for the following year was only NT$1.6. Why is the dividend payout ratio so low at only 20%? A loss in Nanshan Life was confirmed, resulting in a loss on available for sale, causing a decrease in Ruentex Industries' net assets in 2015 to NT$80.2, a decrease of 71%. If it weren't for the right issue in 2013, the net assets in 2015 would have become negative and the company would have gone bankrupt.

mikeon88

備供出售的跌價不計損失，盈餘虛增，
從淨值調整，淨值下降，
將造成ROE上升，內在價值增加，這豈不矛盾？
其實不會，價值仍然減少，
內在價值是根據股息折現公式算出來的，
這條公式講稿15/21講到股票的貴淑價時會詳細解釋。
股票賠錢配不出股息，
淨值減少賣出價下降，
所以根據公式算出來的內在價值將減少，不會增加，
並不矛盾！

Fall in available-for-sale prices is not included in loss and exaggerates profits. However, after adjusting the net assets, the net assets decrease, which may result in an increase in ROE and perceived intrinsic value. But in reality, the intrinsic value decreases. The intrinsic value is calculated using the dividend discount model, which will be explained in more detail in lecture 15/21. The decrease in capital leads to a lack of dividends, a decrease in net assets, and a decrease in selling prices, resulting in a decrease in intrinsic value calculated by the formula, rather than an increase. There is no contradiction.



成本法公司配息計為股利收入，
和投資收入同一個科目。
投資收入科目包含了權益法的盈虧和成本法的股息。

The cost method combines dividend income and investment income into a single account. The investment income account includes both the profit and loss of the equity method and the dividends of the cost method.

mikeon88

還有一個名詞大家需要了解，商譽，不是公司的名譽，
而是合併時產生的會計科目，
用比較高的成本合併另一家公司時即產生商譽。

There is another term that everyone needs to understand, goodwill. It is not a company's reputation, but rather an accounting account created during mergers and acquisitions. Goodwill is generated when another company is acquired at a higher cost.

合併分為現金收購和換股合併。

Mergers are divided into cash acquisitions and stock-swap mergers.

現金收購A和B這兩家公司，
A公司 資(10)=債(2)+值(8 )
B公司 資(9)=債(3)+值(6)

Cash acquisition of Companies A and B:
Co.A A(10) = L(2) + E(8 )
Co.B A(9) = L(3) + E(6)

A公司花7元收購B公司淨值6元。
收購之後A公司的資產負債表變成左邊的現金少7元，
無形資產增加 1 元商譽。
A(B) 資[10+9-7現金+無形(+1商譽)]=債(2+3)+值(8 )

Company A invested $7 to acquire Company B, which had net assets of $6. Following the acquisition, the cash balance on Company A's balance sheet decreased by $7. The intangible asset account for goodwill increased by $1.

The balance sheet for Company A (post acquisition of Company B) is represented as follows:
A(B) A[10 + 9-7 cash + intangible (+1 goodwill)] = L(2 + 3) + E(8 )

換股合併，一樣是A跟B這兩家公司，
換股合併股權各占一半，合併成本7元(=(8+6)/2))，
合併B公司淨值6元，
合併之後A公司的資產負債表左邊無形資產增加1元商譽，
右邊淨值的資本公積增加 1 元發行溢價。
A(B) 資[10+9+無形(+1商譽)]
=債(2+3)+值[8+6+資本公積(+1發行溢價)]

謝謝吳朝同會計師、陳新元桑、郭東嶂桑指導。

In a stock-swap merger between Companies A and B, each company will have half of the combined equity. The cost of the merger is $7 (calculated as (8+6)/2). The net assets of the merged Company B is $6.
After the merger, the intangible asset account for goodwill on the balance sheet of Company A will increase by $1. The capital surplus of net assets on the right-side of the balance sheet will also increase by $1 due to the issuance premium.
The balance sheet for Company A (post merger with Company B) is represented as follows:
A(B) A[10+9+intangible (+1 goodwill)] = L(2+3) + E[8+6+capital surplus(+1 issue premium)]

I would like to express my gratitude to Accountants Chaotong Wu, Sinyuen Chen, and Dongzhang Guo for their guidance.

合併之後每年經過會計師的精算，
發現子公司的價值低於其淨值時，須認列商譽減損，
且一次提列，不能再沖回。

Following the merger, the accountant performs an annual actuarial calculation. If the value of the subsidiary is determined to be lower than its net assets, an impairment of goodwill must be recognized. This write-off is a one-time event and cannot be reversed.

商譽減損：子公司的價值低於合併成本    
資(-商譽)=債+值(-損益)

Goodwill Impairment: When the value of the subsidiary is lower than the combined cost, the goodwill must be reduced. This results in the decrease of assets (A) and increase of profit and loss (E) in the balance sheet.
A(-goodwill) = L + E(-profit and loss)

我買GD沒多久晚上一開盤跌7％，很緊張，
按盈再表發現第四季虧損21億元，以往每季賺6億多元，
查新聞才知是提列子公司商譽減損。
一次提列股價一次反應。

Shortly after I acquired shares of GD, the opening price plummeted by 7% and I felt anxious. The 4th quarter results showed a loss of $2.1 billion according to On's report, compared to a profit of over $600 million in the previous quarter. Upon investigating, I discovered that the subsidiary had recorded a goodwill impairment charge. This led to a decline in the stock price after the write-off.



2013年宏碁也提列Gateway商譽減損，
那幾天股價大跌。

In 2013, Acer also recognized a goodwill impairment of Gateway, causing the stock price to significantly decrease.

同學會發現，我們買的股票常常會被人家合併，
因為我們看好，別人也看好，
我們覺得便宜，別人也是。
一旦被合併股票是賣或留？
以存續公司股價貴淑而定。

You will find that the stocks we invest in are often subject to mergers by other companies, because we have a positive opinion of the company and others share the same sentiment. We believe that it is as reasonably priced as the rest of the market. Whether the merged stock is sold or held onto depends on the valuation of the surviving company.

我買的DTV被AT&T用一股95美元合併。
雖然95美元對DTV而言是便宜的，可是AT&T貴。
當DTV股接近95美元利多反應完畢之後就該把DTV賣掉，
因轉換成AT&T股價也是貴了，一樣要賣掉。

The DTV stock that I bought was merged by AT&T at a price of $95 per share. Although $95 for DTV may seem like a good deal, AT&T is overpriced. When the stock price of DTV approaches $95, the bullish response will have been exhausted, and it would be wise to sell DTV. Since converting to AT&T stock is also too costly, it would also need to be sold.

mikeon88

講稿 9/21 地雷股
Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks

參閱：地雷股案例
See: Landmine stock cases

盈再率是我發明的公式，
2003年看波克夏年報時學到的一個觀念。
年報上巴菲特偶而介紹祂買的一些公司很好，
怎麼個好法？資本支出占盈餘比重很低 (2007年報)，
老巴用文字在敘述這個觀念，
當時我閒著無聊就把它寫成公式，
盈再率觀念來自於巴菲特，公式則是我發明的。
寫成公式把老巴的持股可口可樂、吉力刮鬍刀...等公司
財報拿出來算，的確盈再率都很低。
在寫第一本「巴菲特選股魔法書」時我只知道這樣。

The PR% formula is one that I developed after learning about the concept from reading Berkshire Hathaway's annual report in 2003. In the report, Mr. Buffett would occasionally highlight the outstanding qualities of some of the companies he invested in. He stated in the 2007 annual report that ‘‘It's far better to have an ever-increasing stream of earnings with virtually no major capital requirements."
‘‘Nevertheless, this business requires a significant reinvestment of earnings if it is to grow."
I was inspired by Mr. Buffett's words and transformed them into a formula. I applied the formula to companies invested by Mr. Buffett, such as Coca-Cola and Gillette, and was surprised to find that their PR% was indeed low. This finding was documented in my first book, "Buffett Stock Selection Magic Book".



出了書準備上課，在編講義時想要教什麼？
把台股的一些地雷股拿來算，
赫然發現那些地雷股都有一個共同特色
盈再率超過200。
發現這個現象之後再去想背後整個道理，
過程跟牛頓發現地心引力一樣，
他也是在蘋果樹下被K到之後才想到後面的道理。
舉凡一個偉大的發明的過程都是一樣，
先發現現象，再想出道理。

After publishing the book and preparing for class, what would I want to teach when writing handouts? After analyzing some landmine stocks in the Taiwanese market, I discovered that they all have a common characteristic of PR% exceeding 200. After discovering this phenomenon, I then sought to understand the underlying reasoning behind it. The process is similar to Newton's discovery of gravity. He too was struck with the idea after being hit by an apple falling from a tree. The process of every great invention is the same, first discovering the phenomenon and then considering the cause.

我發現從盈再率和配息率這兩個指標可以事先看出地雷股，
要強調的是事先，不是事後放馬後炮，
在市場上沒人知道這家公司有問題時，
公司獲利還很好，就看出這家公司有問題。

I have found that by using PR% and dividend payout ratio indicators, it is possible to spot mine stocks early. It is important to emphasize that problems are detected before they become widespread in the market, not after the damage has already been done. This means that even if a company appears to be financially strong and highly profitable, we can spot potential problems before they become common knowledge.

mikeon88

兩種地雷股可以從盈再表看出來：
作假帳跟掏空。

Two types of "landmine stocks" can be identified from On's table:
accounting fraud and embezzlement.

公司為什麼要作假帳？
因為生意不好貨賣不出去，
怎麼辦？把它賣掉，賣給誰？
賣給老闆在外面設的人頭公司。
不是賣給子公司喔，否則就變成關係人交易，
是賣給老闆在外設的人頭公司，通常跟母公司無關。

Why is the company's accounting fraudulent?
The goods cannot be sold due to poor business performance.
What is the solution? Sell them. To whom?
They are sold to a paper company established by the boss outside of the parent company to avoid related party transactions. These paper companies are usually not affiliated with the parent company.

貨賣出去收到一堆應收帳款，可不可以變成現金？
可以，拿去賣給銀行，
應收帳款的買賣是銀行正常的業務。
銀行借不借錢看什麼東西？
應收帳款的銷貨對象是誰？
銷貨對象若是國際大廠Walmart、Intel、台積電，
銀行當然會借，
可是作假帳的對象若是
老闆自己在外面設的阿貓阿狗的人頭公司，銀行不會借的。
可以下結論：作假帳的公司配不出現金，
道理很簡單，帳是假的，沒賺到錢，如何配出現金。

When selling goods, we receive accounts receivable. Can we convert accounts receivable into cash? Yes, by selling it to a bank.The buying and selling of accounts receivable is a common banking activity. What does a bank consider when purchasing accounts receivable? The creditworthiness of the sales target is a critical factor. If the sales target is a reputable company such as Walmart, Intel, or TSMC, the bank is more likely to provide financing. However, if the sales target is an unknown paper company, the bank is less likely to buy the accounts receivable. This is because a company that has falsified its accounts may not have the financial means to pay in cash. The reason is simple: if the accounts are fraudulent, there will not be any real revenue to convert into cash.



不過有例外，若公司願意打腫臉充胖子，
從別的地方去弄錢來還是配得出現金，
例如舉債、辦現金增資、炒股等。
很久以前有一家鋼鐵股同光，做螺絲螺帽的，
把貨賣到斯里蘭卡，挖一個大坑埋起來，
對外宣稱營收創新高產能滿載，辦現金增資來擴產，
跟股東要錢來配給股東。

However, there are exceptions. If the company is willing to keep up appearances and pretend, they may still be able to pay cash by obtaining funds from other sources, such as borrowing, cash capital increases, and stock speculation. A long time ago, there was a steel company called Tung Kuang that produced screws and nuts. They would sell the goods to Sri Lanka, dig a big pit and bury them. The company would then publicly announce that their revenue had reached a new high, their production capacity was full, and they had raised funds from shareholders for expansion. They would then ask shareholders for money and distribute it to them.



這種打腫臉充胖子公司即便配出現金也只能配一點點，
如何
很簡單，只要把配不出現金的門檻拉高，
把只能配一點點的公司排除掉。
我規定最近3年的配息率每年至少要40%才算是配得出現金，
這個標準是從講稿10/21提到的兩家地雷股，
雅新跟SAY得到的結論。

How to prevent this kind of company from bluffing. One simple solution is to increase the standard for the dividend payout ratio. For example, I propose a standard of 40% for the payout ratio over the past three years, based on the examples of two landmine stocks mentioned in lecture 10/21, Yahsin (2418.TW) and SAY.

mikeon88

第二種地雷股是掏空資產，
掏空什麼呢？
資產有很多，流動資產、長投、固資...，
掏空一定掏空現金，
沒人在掏空固定資產的，因為要搬比較累。

The second type of landmine stock involves the misappropriation of company assets, including current assets, long-term investments, and fixed assets, among others. The primary objective of this type of misappropriation is usually to obtain cash. Fixed assets, such as property or machinery, are unlikely to be targeted because they are too heavy to move.

現金怎麼掏空？
直接盜領出來馬上事蹟敗露。
如何把現金掏出來神不知鬼不覺，
合法的方式，一時無法察覺，
最常見的管道是透過長期投資，
一筆錢去投資另外一家公司，錢匯過去之後把它領走，
過幾年再對外宣稱那家公司發生虧損，
反正轉投資發生虧損是常有的事。

Directly embezzling cash from a bank account is illegal and will quickly result in exposure. How to withdraw cash from bank legally without being notified? The most common channel is through long-term investment. Invest a sum of money in another company, then take it out after the funds have been transferred. After a few years, the company may claim a loss has occurred. In any case, investment losses are common.

還有什麼管道可以把現金掏空出去？
高價去買不值錢的土地，透過固定資產。
好幾年前OO光董事長一塊土地假設只值1億元，
用5億元賣給公司，差價他賺走了。
(本案獲判無罪)

Are there other methods to embezzle cash? One method is through fixed assets, where the company purchases land at an inflated price. For example, a few years ago, a land owned by the chairman of Axx was valued at only NT$100 million. He sold it to the company for NT$500 million, resulting in a significant profit from the price difference. (Not guilty in this case)



高價買不值錢的股票，亦即透過長期投資也可以掏空現金。
幾年前基金受益人因為結構債發生虧損，
金管會要求寶來金控、元大金控收購就是一例。

Purchasing stocks that are overvalued and not worth their price, i.e. through long-term investments, can lead to potential embezzlement of funds. Several years ago, beneficiaries of a fund suffered losses due to structured notes, leading the Financial Supervisory Commission to direct Polaris Financial Group, and Yuanta Financial Holdings (2885.TW) to repurchase the notes as an example of this.

把現金掏空出去神不知鬼不覺唯一的兩個管道
就是透過長期投資跟固定資產，
除此之外沒有其他管道。
高價買原物料製造成本上升，獲利下降，馬上看得出來。
賤賣資產在業外有處分資產損失，也看得出來。

The only two channels to embezzle cash without being noticed are through long-term investments and fixed assets. Apart from these, there are no other channels. If raw materials are purchased at inflated prices, the resulting increase in manufacturing costs and decrease in profits can be quickly detected. Furthermore, selling assets at low prices may lead to losses from non-operating asset disposals, which can also be uncovered.

長期投資和固定資產這兩管道剛好是盈再率的分子，
我發現盈再率大於200%表示公司被嚴重掏空，
股票會變成壁紙！

Long-term investment and fixed assets are the numerators of the PR% calculation. If the calculated PR% is higher than 200%, it suggests that the company may have suffered from significant embezzlement, such as through these two channels. In such cases, the company's stocks may become worthless.

mikeon88

從配息率和盈再率這兩個指標可以看出地雷股。
以上是理論，來看一些例子。

Landmine stocks can be detected from the two indicators of dividend payout ratio and PR%.
The above is the theory, let's look at some cases.

第一個例子訊碟，做光碟片的，
來看一下現金、應收帳款、淨利，
從這3項裡頭看出什麼端倪？
訊碟2000年賺了10億元，可是只賺到一堆應收帳款，
從616增加到1,769，剛好增加10億元，沒賺到現金，
現金的增加係辦現金增資募了65億元來的。

Let's take a look at the first example, Infodisc Technology (2491.TW), a company that produces CD-ROMs. By examining the cash, accounts receivables, and net profit, what insights can be gained from these three items? In 2000, Infodisc earned NT$1 billion, but it only accumulated a large amount of accounts receivables. Accounts receivables increased from NT$616 million to NT$1,769 million - an increase of exactly NT$1 billion - without a corresponding increase in cash. The increase in cash was due to a cash capital increase of NT$6.5 billion.



現在指訊碟只賺到一堆應收帳款沒有賺到現金，
是在放馬後砲，因已知是地雷股了，
當年它的股價曾漲到200多元，
很多人不曉得公司有問題。
可是看盈再表就一清二楚，
2000年獲利最好時，盈再率539%，超過200%，
而且之前幾年都沒配出現金。

In hindsight, it is clear that Infodisc was a landmine stock, as the company only accumulated a large amount of accounts receivables without any corresponding increase in cash. It is easy to criticize this situation in retrospect, as it is akin to being a Monday morning quarterback. Its stock was once valued at over NT$200, but many investors were not aware of the company's underlying problems. However, a closer look at the company's financial statements reveals a clear picture of its financial health. In 2000, when the company was supposedly performing well, its PR% was 539%, exceeding 200%. Additionally, the company did not distribute any cash dividends in the previous few years.

2004年第二次出事，訊碟老闆還拍胸脯保證，
他好漢做事好漢當，絕對不會落跑。
話一說完人現在美國，
公司老闆講的話來隨便聽聽就好。
訊碟後來被羅福助買走改名叫吉祥全，現在羅也跑了，
顯見公司的風水太「旺」，旺到老闆都坐不住。

In 2004, Infodisc was hit by a second scandal, and the company's owner promised that he was a responsible and honorable leader who would never abandon his duties. However, shortly after making these promises, he fled to the United States. When investing, one should not give too much weight to the words of a company's boss. Infodisc was later acquired by Fuzhu Luo and renamed Fortune Oriental. However, Luo has also fled, indicating that even the new owner could not improve the company's fortunes.

訊碟現金的增加是靠辦現金增資和ECB來的。
什麼是ECB？在歐洲發行的可轉換公司債，
允許在一定的條件底下把公司債變成股票。

The increase in Infodisc's cash was a result of a rights issue and ECB, which stands for convertible corporate bonds issued in Europe. These bonds can be converted into stocks under certain conditions.



特別股性質上比較接近公司債，
規定不管公司賺不賺錢都得配出一定的股息，
就這點而言其實是公司債。
特別股雖然跟普通股擺在一起買賣，
像中鋼有中鋼特，兩者股性差別很大，
普通股會大漲大跌，特別股不太會漲跌，因它是公司債。

Preferred shares are closer in nature to corporate bonds. They stipulate that the company must distribute a certain dividend regardless of whether it makes money or not. In this respect, they are essentially corporate bonds. Although preferred shares are traded alongside common shares, like China Steel's preferred shares, the characteristics of the two are very different. Common shares are volatile, while preferred shares are more stable because they are essentially corporate bonds.

另外，巴菲特好像特別喜歡買特別股，
祂買高盛、美國銀行都是特別股，
因為巴菲特是大金主，別的公司出問題時來求救，
除了買股票之外會給予更好的條件，再加一定的股息，
兩者加起來就是特別股。

In addition, it seems that Buffett has a particular fondness for buying preferred stocks. He has purchased preferred stocks in both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. As a major financier, other companies often seek his assistance when they encounter problems. Along with buying stocks, he can also negotiate favorable conditions and receive a specified dividend, which together constitute a preferred stock.