mikeon88

技術指標背離 ?
Deviation ?

今天有位同學問我，
技術指標背離代表什麼意思 ?

Today, a student asked me what "deviation" means.

技術指標設定下限為 0 ，
股價再怎麼跌，指標最低跌到 0 ，
不會變負的 ，
所以跌到後來指標就鈍化，
即所謂的技術指標背離。

Technical indicators are typically set with a lower limit of 0. This means that even if the stock price drops significantly, the indicator will not become negative as long as the lowest point is still above 0. However, as the stock price falls, the indicator may become less sensitive and less useful, which is referred to as deviation from the technical indicator.

這是公式設定必然的道理，
而非隱含了什麼不為人知的市場轉變。
只要把下限拿掉，
讓下跌可以跌到負的或無限，
就不會出現指標背離。
數學不太差的人都能理解這個道理。

This is the result produced by the formula, and does not imply any unknown market changes.
By removing the lower limit and allowing for negative and infinite values as the stock price declines, there will be no deviation in the indicator. This is a fact that can be understood even by those who are not very proficient in math.

mikeon88

技術分析還有一個均線理論，月線、季線、年線，
過去一個月、一季、一年大家買的平均成本。
所謂均線理論，股價站上均線會有支撐，
跌破均線則構成反壓。

Technical analysis also involves the moving average theory, which includes the monthly, quarterly, and yearly averages of the stock prices purchased by investors over the past month, quarter, or year. According to the moving average theory, when the stock price stays above the moving average, it provides support, while a break below the moving average creates pressure.



均線理論是錯的，
只要每個人都買在100元之上，股價從此就不致跌破100元？
若此，政府要護盤就簡單了，
明天政府就通令全國券商把所有股票都拿出來一賣一買一次，
讓所有股票的成本都墊高在 1 萬點之上，
從此台股就不會跌破 1 萬？

The moving average theory is flawed. Does this mean that stock prices will never fall below $100 as long as everyone buys above that price?
If so, it would be easy for the government to support the market. Tomorrow, the government could order all securities firms across the country to sell and buy all the stocks once, raising the cost of all stocks above 10,000 points. From then on, Taiwan's stock prices would never fall below 10,000?



當然不是這樣，因為股價不是採多數決。
假設有一檔股票百分99.9的股本都在你們手上都不賣，
我只有 1 張我來賣，用跌停板賣掉。
今天這支股票就只成交這 1 張，
我賠了10%對不對，那你們呢？
一樣賠了10%，1 張股票就讓大家賠了10%。

Of course not, because stock prices are not decided by majority vote. Suppose there is a stock in which 99.9% of the shares are held by you and your group, and you refuse to sell. I am the only one with one share and I want to sell it at the limit-down price. Today, only this one share will be traded. I lose 10%, but what about you? You also lose 10%. One share of stock causes everyone to lose 10%.

股價是少數決定多數，算籌碼面是沒必要的事，
因為股票不是錢多的人就會贏。
看外資買賣超、主力進出、政府基金沒有沒在護盤是沒必要的事。

Stock prices are decided by the minority, so calculating the chip surface is unnecessary because having more money does not guarantee winning in stocks. It is unnecessary to look at the foreign investment buying and selling, the main forces entering and exiting, and whether the government fund is supporting the market or not.



很久以前一個同學來上課，才上半天就問
「這堂課怎麼沒有教籌碼面分析？」
我解釋「一檔股票我都抱好幾年，
管它今天誰在買在賣要幹嘛呢？」
同學瞪了我一眼「你是不是不會分析？」
我怎麼不會分析，我不僅是外資分析師，
後來還作到外資研究部主管，Head of Research，
怎麼不會分析。
其實現在我就在教籌碼面分析，
教大家算籌碼面是沒必要的事。

A long time ago, a student asked me, "Why don't you teach us about chip analysis in this class?" I replied, "I have held onto stocks for several years, so it doesn't matter to me who is buying or selling today." My student gave me a skeptical look and said, "Don't you know how to analyze stocks?" Of course, I can analyze stocks. I was not only a foreign research analyst but also a former Head of Research in a foreign securities firm. However, I am currently teaching chip analysis, and I believe that it is unnecessary to focus solely on calculating the number of chips.

我一張股票就讓大家賠了10%，
我們賠掉的10%是誰賺走了？
沒人賺走喔，買我那張股票的人還沒賺錢。
股票的財富會憑空蒸發，也會從天而降，
因為股票不是零和遊戲，輸家贏家獲利加起來是零。
股票大部份股本未拿出來交易，
少數成交量決定所有人的財富。

We all lost 10% of our stock. But who made the 10% that we lost? Nobody gained any profit from it. Even the person who bought my share hasn't made any money yet. The wealth in the stock market doesn't come from nowhere, it is not a zero-sum game where the total profits of the losers and winners add up to zero. In fact, most shares are held for a long time and are not frequently traded. It is the small number of transactions that determine the wealth of everyone.

mikeon88

期貨才是零和遊戲，因期貨的每一口合約都拿出來交易，
有賣方一定有買方。
而且期貨是負和遊戲，
每個人出 1 元在分0.8元的遊戲，
因0.2元被期貨商和政府抽走了。

Futures trading is a zero-sum game because every futures contract is traded between a seller and a buyer. However, it is a negative-sum game where the players collectively lose more than they win. In most cases, for every $1 that is won, only $0.8 is received, with the remaining $0.2 being taken away by futures dealers and government.



負和遊戲就是穩輸的遊戲，玩到最後沒人能賺錢。
不信？我倆來玩，我當政府，你當玩家，
我每次都讓你贏，
你出 1 元，我先抽0.2元，這樣你會賺嗎？

A negative sum game is one where someone must lose, and ultimately, no one can make money. Don't believe it? Let's play a game where I am the government and you are the only player. I let you win every time, but if you pay $1, I will take $0.2 first. Will you still be able to earn anything in the end?

期貨不能玩，除了是玩猜的遊戲之外，
另一個原因是負和遊戲。
同學，本堂課正在教期貨喔，
我教大家期貨、選擇權是穩輸的遊戲，
這個觀念在學校學不到唷！

Futures are not a game for investors, mainly because they involve guesswork and are a negative sum game. In this class, we will be discussing futures and options, both of which are games that are bound to lead to losses. This concept is not typically taught in school.

負和遊戲很多，彩券就是，
大家投錢進來，政府先抽走部份，剩下的大家再去分。
拉斯維加斯的遊戲也是，
只要負和遊戲我就不玩，
去賭城連 1 個quarter的拉霸都沒拉過，
有看它的秀，還有喝免費的飲料。

There are many examples of negative sum games, such as the lottery. Everyone contributes their money, the government takes a cut, and then the remaining funds are distributed among the winners. The same goes for casino games in Las Vegas. Personally, I do not participate in negative sum games. I don't even play the slot machines in the casino. I prefer to just watch shows and enjoy free drinks.

mikeon88

我對電視上的老師解盤都在解外資也很感冒，
他們都是沒做過外資的人， 卻在講外資。
他們怎麼解外資「外資故意在現貨買超，
卻在期貨佈空單，再借券放空......」，
講得活靈活現，好像外資就坐在他隔壁的同事，
一舉一動都瞭若指掌。

I am quite disgusted with the TV teachers who analyze foreign investors. They have never worked for foreign companies, yet they talk about foreign investments. How do they analyze foreign investors? "Foreign investors deliberately buy more in the spot market, but they sell futures and then borrow stocks to short..." They speak so vividly, as if foreign investors are their colleagues sitting next to them.
They seem to understand every move of foreign investors.



外資是散佈在世界各地互不相干的法人，
外資在台北、東京、香港、新加坡、倫敦，愛丁堡、
瑞士、美國各地，
硬把他們的買賣超加起來解釋，
就像我跟阿土伯兩人互不認識，把我倆的買賣超加起來，
說「麥土伯」今天在幹嘛一樣的好笑，
可是電視上的老師每天這樣在解盤給我們聽。

Foreign investors are institutional investors spread out all over the world, with presence in Taipei, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Edinburgh, Switzerland, and throughout the United States. Summing up their transactions to illustrate their activities is akin to adding up the transactions of Uncle Atu and me, who are strangers to each other, and then telling everyone what "Miketu" invested in today. It is absurd, yet TV teachers tell us this every day.



電視的老師更喜歡把外資妖魔化，
說外資券商出了一份買進的報告，卻反而在賣股票。
我是怡富證券電子股分析師，
寫了一份買進報告，客戶反而賣出，何故？
很簡單，他不buy我的story罷了。
股票不是怡富賣的，是客戶，加州教師退休基金經理人賣的。
不是分析師寫的報告客戶就言聽計從，
基金經理人每天桌上會收到一疊研究報告，
我的報告也僅是其中一本。

TV teachers prefer to demonize foreign investors. They claim that foreign brokerage firms issue buy recommendations while selling stocks. However, as an electronic analyst at Jardine Fleming, I know that this is not always the case. For instance, I wrote a report recommending overweight, but some of our clients sold their shares. Why? Simply put, they didn't agree with my analysis. Jardine Fleming doesn't sell shares; our clients, such as the fund managers of California Teachers Pension, do. These clients receive numerous research reports daily, and my report is just one of many. As such, they won't necessarily follow every analyst's recommendation.



有人說天王分析師？
在我那個年代也是天王分析師，
怡富是台灣最大外資券商，一半外資在我們公司下單，
當年電子股最紅，
我是當時台灣薪水最高的分析師。

Are you asking if I'm a star analyst? Well, I'm not just a star analyst, I'm a superstar analyst. Jardine Fleming is the largest foreign brokerage firm in Taiwan, with half of all foreign investors placing their orders through us. During that time, electronics stocks were the most popular, and I was the highest-paid analyst in Taiwan.



我寫一本產業報告，推薦10家電子股，8家被外資買到滿，
當年外資持股有上限只能買到股本的10%。
那時在看盤就覺得奇怪怎麼我推薦的股票動不動就在漲停板？
原來都是我們家客戶買的。

I wrote an industry report recommending 10 electronics stocks, out of which 8 were fully bought by foreign investors. During that time, the foreign shareholding limit was 10%. When I checked the stock quotes, I was amazed to see that my recommended stocks often hit daily limits. Later on, I discovered that it was because our clients had purchased them.

有一次去財訊聽老謝演講，
他提到台股正流行外資概念股QFII Play，
他說外資很看好電子股，然後就一路唸，
外資估2301光寶今年EPS、明年EPS多少，
2302麗正多少，一路唸到最後一支。
心想他在唸什麼？越聽越耳熟，
原本他在唸我估的EPS，
這樣我算不算天王分析師！

One day, I attended a speech by Jinhe Sie at Wealth magazine. He mentioned the growing popularity of QFII play, qualified foreign institutional investors play, in the Taiwan market. He said that foreign investors were very bullish about electronics stocks, and he read out some estimated EPS figures loudly, including those for 2301 Lite-On and 2302 Rectron. As I listened, I realized that he was reading my estimated EPS figures. In this way, I am regarded as a king analyst !

mikeon88

有人說，外資喊的目標價都亂喊，不是喊太高就是太低。
外資目標價並未亂喊，
請問宏逹電漲到1,300元喊1,500元亂喊嗎？
很保守的喊吧。
喊100元的才是亂喊，雖然後來他對了。

Some people say that foreign investors' target prices are all arbitrary and either too high or too low. However, foreign investors do not randomly shout out target prices. For example, when the price of HTC rose to NT$1300, was it really arbitrary to set the target price at NT$1500? It was a conservative estimate. On the other hand, setting the target price at NT$100 was arbitrary, even though the person who did so turned out to be right later on.

何以如此？因市場上大部分人都是看趨勢，
看趨勢有一個偏差，越漲越看好，越跌越悲觀。
漲到1,300當然看1,500。
不像我們價值投資，越漲越覺得貴，
跌低了反而高興可撿便宜。
只是價值投資者在市場上是少數。

Why is this? It's because most people in the market tend to focus on trends. However, there is a bias in following trends. The more the market goes up, the more optimistic people become, and the more it goes down, the more pessimistic they become. When a stock rises to 1,300, it will undoubtedly raise the target to 1,500. Unlike value investors who believe that the more a stock rises, the more expensive it becomes, most investors tend to follow the market trend. If a stock falls, value investors are usually happy to take advantage of the opportunity to buy at a bargain price. However, value investors are a minority in the market.



技術分析還有一個東西叫價量理論，
股價在低檔量會縮，高檔量增。
的確股市存在這個現象，
可是股價反轉向下或回檔的過程中量都會縮，
兩者動作不同，前者要賣，後者則是買。
量縮了究竟是反轉或回檔事先無法判斷，
仍是無用的指標。

There is one thing in technical analysis called price volume theory.
When price is low, transaction volume will decrease, and when price is high, transaction volume will increase.
This phenomenon does exist in stock market.
However, whether stock price falls or is corrected, trading volume will decrease.
Actions of the two are different. The former is for sale and the latter is for purchase.
It is impossible to predict in advance whether reduced trading volume is a price drop or a correction.
Still a useless indicator.



所以我才會說技術分析通通是錯的，
其它沒講到的技術分析，像波浪理論，
什麼1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C波，
我住在淡水，每天看波浪，就看不出有啥1-2-3波。

That's why I say technical analysis is completely wrong. There are other technical analysis concepts, such as wave theory, and the 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C wave that I haven't mentioned. I live in Tamshui and observe the ocean waves every day. However, I can't see any evidence of 1-2-3 waves.

mikeon88

講這麼多就是還有人誣我不懂技術分析才會說人家錯，
為了證明我真的很懂，
現在就用純粹的技術分析來報一支明牌給各位，
以答謝同學這二天來上課。

I've explained so much, yet there are still people who wrongly accuse me of not understanding technical analysis and claiming that it's all wrong. To prove that I really understand. Now, I will use pure technical analysis to make stock tips to thank my students for coming to class these two days.

報明牌囉，注意聽喔。
這支股票在高檔整理完成，強勢整理。
股價站上均線，跳空上漲，攻擊量出現。
這一支有主力住在帝寶，我跟他的兒媳婦蠻熟的，
她在台灣的節目剛收掉，前往中國發展。
公司派全力作多。這是哪一家？
下周要發動囉，請作筆記。

Please take note that stock tips will be provided soon. The stock price has been consolidating at a high level and consolidating strongly. It rose above the moving average, the gap jumped, and there was an increase in trading volume. Moreover, a big player living in Mansion Dibao is highly involved in this stock. I happen to know his daughter very well, and she just recently finished her TV program and went to China. The company also appears to be very optimistic. Can you guess which stock this is? Keep an eye on it as it is expected to surge next week.



基亞，崩盤前的基亞就長這樣，
完全符合技術分析飆股的要件，
結果是崩盤，
那些會技術分析的人請上來解釋看看。

Before the crash, Medigen Biotech (3176.TW) had met all the technical analysis requirements for a soaring stock, but it still crashed. Can someone who understands technical analysis explain why this happened?



有一次上到這裡，同學睡眼惺忪舉手問：
「麥可，你說這支股票下周要發動，是真的假的？」
把我嚇出一身冷汗！

Once during a class in this section, a drowsy student raised her hand and asked, "Michael, is it true that the stock you mentioned will surge next week?" It gave me a fright and I broke into a cold sweat !

mikeon88

都瞭解了嗎？有沒有問題？這堂課將進入尾聲，
如果上了兩天完全聽不懂，沒關係，
如果已睡了兩天的覺，請醒過來。

Do you all understand ? Any question ? This class is about to end.
If you still don’t understand after two days, it’s fine.
If you have slept for two days, wake up.

第一，未來不管聽到多大的明牌，買股之前請先按盈再表。
選股原則就3點：
1. 選高ROE、配得出現金，不會變的公司
2. 便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣
3. 買至少100支股票，不必照顧也不要停損

Firstly, no matter how promising a stock tip may seem, always On's table before making any purchases.
Our stock selection is guided by three principles:
1. We select companies with high return on equity, high dividends payout, and a stable business model.
2. We buy at a cheap price and hold until the stock becomes overvalued.
3. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of more than 100 stocks eliminates the need for constant monitoring and loss cutting.



第二，不要猜測大盤趨勢，依GDP按表操課加減碼。

Secondly, do not speculate on the overall market trend. Instead, follow the GDP rule and make adjustments accordingly.

同學，學投資是一段漫長體會的過程。
這堂課不是聽一次就會，
第一次聽懵懵懂懂很正常。
多複習講稿，
有問題直接打電話給我，
常到討論區來一起討論。
以後我們多多連絡了。Bye！Bye！

Class, learning how to invest is a long journey. It's possible that you may not fully comprehend the lecture content after listening to it only once. It's normal to feel unfamiliar with the material on your first attempt. Therefore, it is recommended that you frequently review the lecture material. If you have any questions, please contact me directly. Join the discussion forum daily to participate in discussions with other students. Stay connected. Goodbye and take care!